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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Also the band seems more organised!!what are the chances that tomorrows snow ends up giving way more than thursdays

Crikey

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Just now, Kentish Snowman said:

Toys are out of the pram again tonight and so many arrogant posts!  Why can't people chill out and just enjoy the Winter model rollercoaster for what it is?  If you don't like the British climate move to Canada / Scandinavia etc!

Now to the off topic part of my post....Models!

The ICON this evening has moved tomorrow's front back North again and then moved Thursday's front way to the South so excuse me if I don't get hung up on FI!

Let's see whether the GFS follows suit....

If you believe ICON, then what are you smoking? Pfttt..

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Can you stop hope casting Nick .. The forum has been doing it all winter .

Also no one mentioned the Gem at day 10 . That’s a good chart . That’s got a lot of ? I won’t say the word it’s been used to much this year it begins with P . 

0C2766B0-3B60-4E83-8B57-9722FC9416A1.png

Potential? Maybe? 

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Posted
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl
  • Weather Preferences: See if you can guess
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl

Can i ask does the EC46 get updated this evening?

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Also the band seems more organised!!what are the chances that tomorrows snow ends up giving way more than thursdays

Well the site that shall not be named just upgraded things overnight to sixteen(!!) hours of heavy snow here until tomorrow afternoon. Even if only a quarter right that’s good enough for me.

The ICON is a bit of an attention seeker, it flaps around backwards and forwards in a way that other short term models don’t as a rule. I stick to EURO4, UKMO and nothing else for the short term.

Edited by ukpaul
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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

If you believe ICON, then what are you smoking? Pfttt..

Where did I say I believed it?!

Getting so childish in here with stupid one liners moaning and one upmanship ruining the thread.....

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

I’m going to call work tomorrow and let them know I can’t come in. “I’ve only gone and caught model fatigue”

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Looks like an upgrade of snow tomorrow for all.of england!!band comes through slightly later but also slightly slower to clear away!!could be more than just 1-3cms in places!!

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
5 minutes ago, Bruegelian said:

Can i ask does the EC46 get updated this evening?

Yes tonight just after 10 o’clock.

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Posted
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl
  • Weather Preferences: See if you can guess
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl
Just now, ICE COLD said:

Yes tonight just after 10 o’clock.

Thanks, will be interesting.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

18z V 12z for midnight tomorrow!

F75388F1-2B18-46AB-99D4-DCB131674B85.thumb.png.f47c6bbbac7ee230c0f6af66dbc9cfc6.pngF99366F8-A96B-4FBF-9879-0AD858E6E5FD.thumb.png.a44fd3dd19c625f6657e91a51442e2ef.png

Yeah ,after a period of time where the models were weakening the low fairly rapidly by the time it entered France, they now maintain it, which of course means the snowfall is heavier on the front. That would quite possibly shift any marginality as well if that were to occur.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
14 minutes ago, Rambo said:

Who knew weather forecasting could be so vindictive eh?

It’s nothing to do with being vindictive. Just helping people to learn not to get their hopes up.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Could be an interesting Thursday evening rush hour for Wales, Midlands, S England and East Anglia if the 12z EC is right, snowfall heavier than tomorrow, but uncertainty of marginality for lower elevations this far off, may turn back to rain across the south as the front lifts/ pivots north too. So accumulations although could be moderate, may not hang around long.

706668EB-0CC1-41EC-935E-CD8E65E8629D.thumb.png.3488b580359a99503e91cb2753187cdc.png

I agree Nick, I can't see the snow holding for that long, maybe a case of enjoying it whilst you can, the flow behind the front on most modesl (other than the ICON!) looks fairly unstable so probably lots of wintry showers about which will not help any snow cover. Could go from white to grey quite quickly.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Before the 46 comes out, it might be worth remembering how binary the week 2 eps were this morning - the mean for week 3 could well be a bit meh and we don’t get  to see clusters on this model. 

Perspective may be required but probably will be in short supply

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

All good and well, but it's January. It would be desperately ABNORMAL to not have to scrape your car windscreen or see some falling snow.

Come on mate, you're better than this. Let's assess where we actually are this winter without rose tinted glasses. It has been awful and there is no dressing it up. You/anyone can dress it up anyway you like but a couple of days of falling snow and having to scrape the windscreen a couple of times does not justify the expectation that we all had this winter (given the signals).

Dont know what everyone's expectation was, but all I ever saw was there being a good chance of prolonged deep cold this winter, and that was perfectly accurate. Yes it hasn't happened, but no one said it would definitely happen....key word "chance". So if you were expecting a guaranteed cold period, then more fool you lol. 

This is more a general point, but there does seem to be a growing trend in the forum now to blame anyone who made a prediction about any cold snap, as if its their fault and they're stupid. I'm sure its quite common here given the types of characters that frequent the place, but even still lol

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