Cold hunt - models and chat

[MattStoke]

Thursday’s snow barely making it into the South Midlands on the ICON 18z.

Sure that will lead to many on here calling it a great run while I and many others would miss out completely.

Edited January 28, 2019 by MattStoke

[shaky]

Wow!!!front struggles to reach the midlands this run and dies out!!

[kold weather]

BIG shift south from the ICON on the 18z...that's one of the bigger shifts I've seen from run-run with this system...probably a bit of a southerly outlier I'd say, though there small support from the ECm ensembles (only around 15%)

[Ice Day]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Slightly more elongated LP at 66hrs from the ICON but more or less the same distribution of LP's, etc. For now!

I would say the low is slightly south at 75

18z  12z 

[SMU]

2 things -

ICON quite a bit south @72-

Plus - Guys above^^^

Do we really think the MET Office, the most reserved institute in the UK are going to hopecast a cold spell?

No, for then to repeatedly put the key words around deep cold from the East into the medium & long term forecasts suggest via their modelling its 'probable'

They do not base their forecasts- especially one linked to the Stratosphere on the bodgit & scarper model the GFS-

So just sit tight & be patient.

[Froze were the Days]

Just now, Badgers01 said:

crewe matey you speak for many on here !!

Me as well...so far it's been a disappointing winter but lets see what the weather 'throws up' in the next few days (might be pleasantly surprised or not)  and that solitary day was hardly widespread. I've experienced a very fortunate brief light flurry that settled and then melted on Thursday - hardly noteworthy.

[weirpig]

Wow quite a south correction on the 18z icon  low now just north of Darwin 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

2 things -

ICON quite a bit south @72-

Plus - Guys above^^^

Do we really think the MET Office, the most reserved institute in the UK are going to hopecast a cold spell?

No, for then to repeatedly put the key words around deep cold from the East into the medium & long term forecasts suggest via their modelling its 'probable'

They do not base their forecasts- especially one linked to the Stratosphere on the bodgit & scarper model the GFS-

So just sit tight & be patient.

Steve, no-one mentioned the Metoffice hopecasting.

I was referring to the forum.

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

I would say the low is slightly south at 75

18z  12z 

The colder 850's are quite a bit further south.

[winterof79]

Happy Southern correction

[bluearmy]

Surprised @Steve Murr hasn’t mentioned the control - brings in a beast similar to end last feb in the extended and builds the scandi ridge as per some of the gfs and gem ops from today. I often feel the ec op and ec control are interchangeable when they go their separate ways .....by that I mean one could easily have been the other. Had we just seen the ec control as the op then this place would be quite different regarding the longer term

as far as the extended is concerned, the mean does indeed look meh but it’s unconvincing and I await the clusters to see if the broadly binary solutions are there again. I haven’t  changed my view from yesterday that the Azores will pump up a ridge which heads to scandi .....it could end up more scriceland but given the developments to our ne in the arctic, I’m inclined to think scandi to begin with .....especially with the Canadian likely to continue to force the northern arm for a while yet ......that would fit with the return to neutral AO later week which we have been seeing on the eps and geps ......

Anyway, onto the late evening output .....

[Lauren]

I don't know how many times we have to ask for no MetO discussion. There's so many places on this forum to discuss various topics, weather wise or otherwise. All we're asking is to post in the relevant places.

We don't want to have to resort to it, but this thread will be locked if people continuously choose to not stick to the guidelines

[kold weather]

The southward correction is purely because of the very elongated low by 72hrs, be interesting to see the high resolution version and see by how much its extending things.

*I won't complain at all about this run, kills dead any marginality...HOWEVER I do think this is probably one southward correction to far and is right on the south edge of the guidance.

Winterof79, I'm happy I get some good non marginal snow out of this run!

Edited January 28, 2019 by kold weather

[Scandinavian High.]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

2 things -

ICON quite a bit south @72-

Plus - Guys above^^^

Do we really think the MET Office, the most reserved institute in the UK are going to hopecast a cold spell?

No, for then to repeatedly put the key words around deep cold from the East into the medium & long term forecasts suggest via their modelling its 'probable'

They do not base their forecasts- especially one linked to the Stratosphere on the bodgit & scarper model the GFS-

So just sit tight & be patient.

best post I’ve read all night keep up good work Steve.. 

[nick sussex]

It’s amazing just how much the models have struggled with set up .

Originally there were those bowling ball lows stuck over the UK lifting out most of the cold and now they’re trying to slide the low and weaken it.

I think any forecasts for Thursday are still up in the air .

[IDO]

The ICON continues to sink the second low south and if it continues then the trailing front may miss much of the UK. It also fizzles out on the M42 corridor:

Keeps that front all snow.

[SMU]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Surprised @Steve Murr hasn’t mentioned the control - brings in a beast similar to end last feb in the extended and builds the scandi ridge as per some of the gfs and gem ops from today. I often feel the ec op and ec control are interchangeable when they go their separate ways .....by that I mean one could easily have been the other. Had we just seen the ec control as the op then this place would be quite different regarding the longer term

as far as the extended is concerned, the mean does indeed look meh but it’s unconvincing and I await the clusters to see if the broadly binary solutions are there again. I haven’t  changed my view from yesterday that the Azores will pump up a ridge which heads to scandi .....it could end up more scriceland but given the developments to our ne in the arctic, I’m inclined to think scandi to begin with .....especially with the Canadian likely to continue to force the northern arm for a while yet ......that would fit with the return to neutral AO later week which we have been seeing on the eps and geps ......

Anyway, onto the late evening output .....

Mate I was searching for it on the ECMWF weatherus website but alas couldnt find it

then forgot to ask - but the T2Ms were enough

[nick sussex]

Just now, IDO said:

The ICON continues to sink the second low south and if it continues then the trailing front may miss much of the UK. It also fizzles out on the M42 corridor:

Keeps that front all snow.

I think it looks very stingy with the precip . I’m not convinced it’s got that right .

[Man With Beard]

ICON 18Z follows on from quite a number of ECM ensembles that keep the snow south - I see koldweather has put this at about 15% so not massive - but there's a move afoot to bring everything south.

Mind you northerners - the ensembles that keep the snow further north general go for some really good falls.

Exhausting keeping up with this

[kingdogleash]

11 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

crewe matey you speak for many on here !!

But not everyone, some just comment on what the charts show, right or wrong they just try to predict the weather. If its good or bad, is just opinion.

[Paul White.]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Steve, no-one mentioned the Metoffice hopecasting.

I was referring to the forum.

So is the forum supposed to shut down then crew ? I’m sure I’ve read somewhere it’s the Hunt for cold. So lets hunt and find those cold charts, get them posted in here so they can be discussed. You know what I hope this thread continues and people keep showing all of us how a cold spell can develop that is the skill. It’s so easy to post in here with the attitude of I told you so. Because the odds are in favour of a return to climatology 

 

regards

[Leon1]

Good ICON for us southerners xD

Would probably get a bit further north than it's suggesting though.

[ICE COLD]

15 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Happy Southern correction

Winter come on pal , why you getting well gel ?? It ant anyone’s fault the snow is trending further south . 

Fwiw I think the icon has gone a bit to far south with the low . Lots of chopping and changing yet I suppose. It’s always a drama when the uk is gonna get snow  . 

Edited January 28, 2019 by ICE COLD

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Mate I was searching for it on the ECMWF weatherus website but alas couldnt find it

then forgot to ask - but the T2Ms were enough

Day 15 so take it with relevant pinches of salt but it doesn’t just arrive unannounced .....

 

and those of you saying that there is nothing in the modelling showing cold in feb need to look harder

eps clusters at day 14.5

 

Day 15 gefs mean - not bad at such a range

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

ICON 18Z follows on from quite a number of ECM ensembles that keep the snow south - I see koldweather has put this at about 15% so not massive - but there's a move afoot to bring everything south.

Mind you northerners - the ensembles that keep the snow further north general go for some really good falls.

Exhausting keeping up with this

Exactly MIB, the uncertainty is certainly keeping the thread alive with plenty of 'debate'.  I still believe this next 4-5 day's is a prelude to a very cold February following a brief milder spell.  We shall see, maybe it's a case of 'hopecasting' but then again I've always been an optimist.