Cold hunt - models and chat

[Froze were the Days]

7 minutes ago, Jason M said:

This has been a developing pattern for a few days and seems to have really gathered pace today. It’s been a bit surreal really in that the output we see has been saying no to northern blocking consistently but somehow we are expecting it to appear. Unless we see changes in the output in the morning I’d be expecting the long range prognosis to start to change significantly. 

In the short term plenty of interest though so it’s a week to be grateful for what we receive given that Southern European heights are looking like the way forward. As always though nothing is written in stone. 

Yep agree...I worded it differently last night but got laughed at like I was Peter Kay but certainly a distinct possibility and as I mentioned it keeps showing in the det runs (other than this morning) from near day 7 you have to take it seriously!

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Models lead the Metoffice thinking, not the other way round. So yes I would think there would be a change of wording imminent, given the tripe we're being served up in the extended modelling now.

Roll on spring- this winter has been grim!

It's comments like this that make me double down on a cold February!

[Wilxy]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

-3 is not going to do it im afraid

Are you forgetting March last year the uppers were around the same in the south and I had one of my best falls of snow I’ve seen or am I missing something? Dew points play a part as well not always about the uppers

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

-3 is not going to do it im afraid

There’s far more to snowfall than temperatures at the 850 hpa level.

[Paul_1978]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

The ECM mean shows it remaining cold for the rest of this week but maybe something less cold as we move through next week?

Looks that way as it stands - if the 12z GFS and ECM are anything to go by, what does fall this week will be all gone by Sunday.

 

[kold weather]

10 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Not talking imby check the 850s

I've got all the raw data (I pay for it) and whilst a little marginal at the coast, its snow the whole up from there apart from maybe the very back edge and front edge.

In this set-up the magic number at 850hpa to worry about is somewhere around -1C. This is because we are importing air from Europe that will have just had a snowfall from the LP on Tuesday so the boundary level (925mbs roughly 'ish') is much colder than it would be had it come straight of the ocean. Its also why it was SO important to have a flow from the SE, not the SW are originally forecasted. Once that shifted, the south became involved in the snow chances and the set-up became able to withstand higher 850hpa temperatures than normal.

Could it change back, certainly could, but models are trending positively for this not to be the case. Hopefully it stays broadly where it is sand doesn't trend further south (though for me IMBY, that wouldn't be a bad thing).

Edited January 28, 2019 by kold weather

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

There’s far more to snowfall than temperatures at the 850 hpa level.

Yes I am aware of that thankyou but ECM is very marginal

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It's comments like this that make me double down on a cold February!

There's absolutely zilch in the modelling at the moment to suggest a cool February, let alone a cold one. If you can show me some concrete signs of a cold February (other than the Metoffice further outlook which has been singing the same song since late December), then I might take notice.

As of now we have everything trending the wrong way for any deep/prolonged cold. Whether you chose to accept this or not is completely on you. Those EPS are pretty damning.

I'll also turn the tables on you here- for all of your positive comments over the past 8 weeks or so, what have we actually seen for it? I'll tell you...1 solitary day of falling snow falling in the form of showers!

Concrete proof that hope casting DOES NOT work

Edited January 28, 2019 by CreweCold

[MattStoke]

Just now, winterof79 said:

Yes I am aware of that thankyou but ECM is very marginal

I saw heavy, settling snow at modest altitude (146 m) a week and a half ago, with uppers at -2’C.

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

I've got all the raw data (I pay for it) and whilst a little marginal at the coast, its snow the whole up from there apart from maybe the very back edge and front edge.

In this set-up the magic number at 850hpa to worry about is somewhere around -1C. This is because we are importing air from Europe that will have just had a snowfall from the LP on Tuesday so the boundary level is much colder than it would be had it come straight of the ocean. Its also why it was SO important to have a flow from the SE, not the SW are originally forecasted. Once that shifted, the south became involved.

Could it change back, certainly could, but models are trending positively for this not to be the case. Hopefully it stays broadly where it is sand doesn't trend further south (though for me IMBY, that wouldn't be a bad thing).

Lucky you. The ECM run is still not good at all. Just commenting on the run may change.

[Eskimo]

Just now, winterof79 said:

Yes I am aware of that thankyou but ECM is very marginal

Southerly tracking lows with bands of precipitation heading north are always marginal, but a lot of the time they produce some of the most spectacular snowfalls. In this particular set up, 850hpa temperatures of between -2C and -5C are not marginal at face value, particularly with a South easterly draw. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ecm!!!! Who needs it, ba ba booooooom, let's face it nasa live in space, so they gotter no more than anyone, even the met, lol

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

I saw heavy, settling snow at modest altitude (146 m) a week and a half ago, with uppers at -2’C.

The ECM output shows it will have melted before you enjoy it.

[Norrance]

posts relating to the Met Office forecasts will be deleted so please stop making them.

[shotski]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

There's absolutely zilch in the modelling at the moment to suggest a cool February, let alone a cold one. If you can show me some concrete signs of a cold February (other than the Metoffice further outlook which has been singing the same song since late December), then I might take notice.

As of now we have everything trending the wrong way for any deep/prolonged cold. Whether you chose to accept this or not is completely on you. Those EPS are pretty damning.

I'll also turn the tables on you here- for all of your positive comments over the past 8 weeks or so, what have we actually seen for it? I'll tell you...1 solitary day of falling snow falling in the form of showers!

Concrete proof that hope casting DOES NOT work

You was confident yourself of a scandi high a week or so ago was you not ? Like you say hope casting does not work. 

[Optimus Prime]

9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

There’s far more to snowfall than temperatures at the 850 hpa level.

Absolutely. This obsession with this 850 hPa temperature grows stronger by the year and sometimes I wonder whether the majority of people really understand what they are talking about when they reference them. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

ICON 18z seem very few comment on it so far, but just at T24 the low and any precipitation are noticeably northwards still! Lots like more coming into play!

And by T63 the next low is definitely sliding, good signs!

Edited January 28, 2019 by Ben Sainsbury

[Mike Poole]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

There's absolutely zilch in the modelling at the moment to suggest a cool February, let alone a cold one. If you can show me some concrete signs of a cold February (other than the Metoffice further outlook which has been singing the same song since late December), then I might take notice.

As of now we have everything trending the wrong way for any deep/prolonged cold. Whether you chose to accept this or not is completely on you. Those EPS are pretty damning.

I'll also turn the tables on you here- for all of your positive comments over the past 8 weeks or so, what have we actually seen for it? I'll tell you...1 solitary day of falling snow falling in the form of showers!

Concrete proof that hope casting DOES NOT work

Just sticking to my belief in the science relating to SSW events, Crewe.  If it goes wrong fine, 70% chance it will work out for UK means 30% chance it won't.  

But if it does come off as Met Office expectations, titanium proof that doom casting DOES NOT work.

[ukpaul]

16 minutes ago, DEYS(Kent) said:

-3 850s in this set up is not crud.. 

Even the insanely optimistic GFSP snow charts baulk at -3 for falling snow. The chances go up markedly for the south if the system gets north then pivots and slows as the lower 850s and the snow wrapped around it follows the system sinking into Europe. I lived south of London for twenty years, angle of trajectory is a real help when there’s no embedded cold.

[minus86BriJ]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yep I was indeed. 

This winter has been a perplexing one in as much what was 'supposed' to happen just didn't happen in reality.

Aww, I was contemplating liking the first edit, oh well.

[winterof79]

8 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Absolutely. This obsession with this 850 hPa temperature grows stronger by the year and sometimes I wonder whether the majority of people really understand what they are talking about when they reference them. 

Then your explanation would be welcome if I don't know what I'm talking about

[kold weather]

Slightly more elongated LP at 66hrs from the ICON but more or less the same distribution of LP's, etc. For now!

[Badgers01]

15 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

There's absolutely zilch in the modelling at the moment to suggest a cool February, let alone a cold one. If you can show me some concrete signs of a cold February (other than the Metoffice further outlook which has been singing the same song since late December), then I might take notice.

As of now we have everything trending the wrong way for any deep/prolonged cold. Whether you chose to accept this or not is completely on you. Those EPS are pretty damning.

I'll also turn the tables on you here- for all of your positive comments over the past 8 weeks or so, what have we actually seen for it? I'll tell you...1 solitary day of falling snow falling in the form of showers!

Concrete proof that hope casting DOES NOT work

crewe matey you speak for many on here !!

[shaky]

Looks like the low has gone slightly more south and sliding more on icon 18z!!

[Ben Sainsbury]

By T72 a significant movement south of the -4'c isotherm potential for many more to see snow further south along with those further north. Could be a widespread event!

EDIT: The whole front just loses its energy...

Edited January 28, 2019 by Ben Sainsbury