Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Recommended Posts

Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

Fax for tomorrow night suggesting a stall / pivot to tomorrow nights front enhancing / prolonging the snow for eastern areas 

B77AEF5C-4C2E-483F-A807-74EDA8F23BD3.jpeg

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites
shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Good snowfall basically!

Probably 6-8hrs of solid snowfall, does weaken towards the end of that time frame but somewhere between 2-4 inches, some places would almost certainly get more however, especially west Midlands and Wales which do get hammered.

Finally confirmed midlands and wales buried lol!!!am craviiing snow lol

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

I’m still not overly convinced on Thursday - looks to be too much mild air wrapped in to produce all this heavy snow mentioned? Happy to be proved entirely wrong here.

Intensity could help for Thursday. It's got much more pop to it than tomorrow's system.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Why are you looking at day 7/8 when we don't have the closer term sorted yet? (as some were telling me last night)  still trending 'milder' in EC FI (I will not say 'mild') as everybody will be laughing at me as of last night...a little hypocritical.

i was simply pointing out that despite the fi charts looking like they go less cold and more traditionally zonal, they still bring transitional snowfall - the message here being that if the op is being too progressive then the meto forecast that has many confused is not so fanciful …….. its not a forecast, just an observation that meh charts may hide something less meh. remember a week or so ago when we were going mild for a period …...turned into a blip …..so could this one …….i'll get back to you after the clusters later this evening

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Fax for tomorrow night suggesting a stall / pivot to tomorrow nights front enhancing / prolonging the snow for eastern areas 

B77AEF5C-4C2E-483F-A807-74EDA8F23BD3.jpeg

out of date tim  .the latest looks a bit different  

Edited by bluearmy
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 12z is great for snow - Southern England around 5-10cm

SE Ireland + Wales especially mid upwards get smashed up to 30cms...

Midlands??

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
78/79 Accomplished

78/79

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
Posted
9 minutes ago, Vikos said:

EC FI = west at it's best... game over for the next 2 weeks...

ECH1-192.GIF?28-0

Do me a favour, If every 8 day chart had verified this winter ,I would have been buried in snow,and freezing my nuts off weeks ago.I know  next to nothing about interpreting charts,but  even I have sussed out that  at that range,  especially this winter you might as well put some seaweed outside of your back door.and get the same degree of accuracy. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Duane S. Veteran

Duane S.

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
Posted
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I don’t think those towards the south coast Dorset west should give up hope yet of some snow .

The ECM does have an onshore flow but then as the low pivots those areas west then pick up an offshore n ne flow.

Agree Nick.

For the precise reason you have stated, I have been harbouring some hope, post pivot!

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The GFS 12z ensembles showing some big spikes for tomorrow evenings precipitation with the op one of the top enders. Hope most of it is snow!

02108A3C-8EA6-4CA1-BAFF-7F3FF1F8B49D.png

It certainly is looking like it is warming up, well not cold as per this week, by about the 4th February, which seems to be a consistent signal for now. Before then, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and perhaps another day or two bringing us all a wintry mix. Something for everyone in the next ten days then?

Edited by gottolovethisweather
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

i was simply pointing out that despite the fi charts looking like they go less cold and more traditionally zonal, they still bring transitional snowfall - the message here being that if the op is being too progressive then the meto forecast that has many confused is not so fanciful …….. its not a forecast, just an observation that meh charts may hide something less meh. remember a week or so ago when we were going mild for a period …...turned into a blip …..so could this one …….i'll get back to you after the clusters later this evening

Okay fair enough but I said last night trending 'mild' is also an observation (which I got slaughtered over) and backed up now by 5 of the last 6 det runs I believe (might be wrong with those figures). Thanks for the reply

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

This ECM snow depth doesn’t look too unrealistic. FWIW I think they may have tweeted the algorithms in the last week as the totals look more realistic. For tomorrow night it shows no more than 1-3cm now 

D0423EDE-E144-4F48-8A5D-DB3FFEEA4BCD.jpeg

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted
8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Fax for tomorrow night suggesting a stall / pivot to tomorrow nights front enhancing / prolonging the snow for eastern areas 

B77AEF5C-4C2E-483F-A807-74EDA8F23BD3.jpeg

Cheeky polar low to the NW a well - should track down towards western Scotland.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
cheeky_monkey Maestro

cheeky_monkey

Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
Posted

see this thread has turned into snow watch :snowman-emoji:

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

This ECM snow depth doesn’t look too unrealistic. FWIW I think they may have tweeted the algorithms in the last week as the totals look more realistic. For tomorrow night it shows no more than 1-3cm now 

D0423EDE-E144-4F48-8A5D-DB3FFEEA4BCD.jpeg

But it still shows 8 inches for me by saturday - it just isn't going to happen, its a weakening feature which could wrap around but very unlikely to give that many hours of continuous snow and even if it did, tyhere is no way it would be heavy enough

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted

Pretty chaotic looking fax chart for Thursday, blimey how west is the low?

fax72s.gif

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

see this thread has turned into snow watch :snowman-emoji:

Well it is why we sit here like crazy people checking runs four times a day, for five months of the year - so quite understandable!

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
KTtom Experienced

KTtom

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted
10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

out of date tim  .the latest looks a bit different  

Yes, tomorrow's front seems to be pushing through far quicker than originally anticipated...Thursday, however looking very juicy...classic angle of attack for disruptive snow.

 

PPVK89-1.gif

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted
3 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Cheeky polar low to the NW a well - should track down towards western Scotland.

0Z John, 12Z is this...

 

fax36s.gif

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted
Just now, Stuie W said:

Pretty chaotic looking fax chart for Thursday, blimey how west is the low?

fax72s.gif

Imagine if it misses all of us

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted
Just now, Johnp said:

Imagine if it misses all of us

I know! How many mods between now and Weds I wonder!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
cheeky_monkey Maestro

cheeky_monkey

Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
Posted
Just now, KTtom said:

Yes, tomorrow's front seems to be pushing through far quicker than originally anticipated...Thursday, however looking very juicy...classic angle of attack for disruptive snow.

 

PPVK89-1.gif

like to see the dewpoints here ..from a neutrals point of view it looks at first glance like lots of cold rain and sleet esp at low levels

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Pretty chaotic looking fax chart for Thursday, blimey how west is the low?

fax72s.gif

Yes very messy situation, its part of the reason why the models have been struggling a little.

Given the cyclonic nature of the cold pool aloft, I never did believe in that bowling ball look the GFs/ECM tried to force upon us, the energy was never going to be that uniform, and sure enough that is exactly how it now looks like its going to be with little secondary features developing in the flow.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Latest Weather News

    European State of the Climate 2023 - Widespread flooding and severe heatwaves

    The annual ESOTC is a key evidence report about European climate and past weather. High temperatures, heatwaves, wildfires, torrential rain and flooding, data and insight from 2023, Read more here

    Jo Farrow
    Jo Farrow | 
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Chilly with an increasing risk of frost

    Once Monday's band of rain fades, the next few days will be drier. However, it will feel cool, even cold, in the breeze or under gloomy skies, with an increasing risk of frost. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts | 
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Dubai Floods: Another Warning Sign for Desert Regions?

    The flooding in the Middle East desert city of Dubai earlier in the week followed record-breaking rainfall. It doesn't rain very often here like other desert areas, but like the deadly floods in Libya last year showed, these rain events are likely becoming more extreme due to global warming. View the full blog here

    Nick F
    Nick F | 
    Latest weather updates from Netweather 2
×
×
  • Create New...