Cold hunt - models and chat

[IDO]

Best not to dwell on D7-D10. The GFS flattens the pattern and TBH the NH picture is pretty bad:

D10: 

However, not sure the models are going to be a good test of the medium term for a day or two so best to wait till then.

[winterof79]

UKMO 144Z  has a large Northern  Siberian high developing as does ICON which goes on to develop it more so at 180Z

1060mB (is that a record Norris?)

GFS flails around miserably as per the norm with any HLB

whoosh it was gone

 

Edited January 28, 2019 by winterof79

[igloo]

well take your pick longer term is it the gfs or something like the gem just shows no model or human knows what will happen?

or

Edited January 28, 2019 by igloo

[Winter Hill]

2 minutes ago, igloo said:

well take your pick longer term is the gfs or something like the gem just shows no model or human knows what will happen?

or

I would rather take the GEM. Don’t think it performed very well this winter though. 

[Bruegelian]

Well, maybe just the hint, right at end of the 12z GFS, of high pressure moving up towards greenland and finally displacing the NE canada PV.

 

[igloo]

5 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

I would rather take the GEM. Don’t think it performed very well this winter though. 

sure would but none have performed very well with the ecm 46 being the worst by miles

[Mapantz]

This is the wrong thread to be sharing your current and projected temperatures. Head over to your regional threads for that, please?!

Thankies!

[markw2680]

Really am bemused by some of you on here constantly looking for breakdowns in far fi, the cold has only just arrived with snow to come this week but your looking at it all blowing away with ease in fi and taking it as gospel, it’s all going to chop and change so it’s completely irrelevant and pretty sad if you ask me

[pacifist99]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

This is the wrong thread to be sharing your current and projected temperatures. Head over to your regional threads for that, please?!

Thankies!

Well said dude.  Posted yesterday about people keeping it model related but sadly people are spoiling this thread by been selfish.  Have to skip most of the posts these days.  Shame because up till recently the forum was great

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

Anyone know how the UKMO looks for snow on Thursday? Wish we could see more data from it.

to me looks rubbish for us, looks very south, like a south midlands event?

[Mucka]

Medium/Long term prospects

Clearly there is a window of opportunity for blocking to take hold post 144 with a diving low and Atlantic ridge, meanwhile the Arctic/Siberian high has been edging West for the same period.

UKMO 168 would likely show a trough pushing down through the UK with a ridge pushing up toward W Iceland.

A link up could lock cold in out to mid Feb and if it happened there could no real milder blip.

Alternatively we could still get the blocking a little later but draw in mild South westerlies for a time as WAA is pumped up toward Scandinavia.

I think the less likely option is the pattern flattening and Westerly zonal for a while through first half of Feb although there is reasonable support in the ensembles for such an outcome.

 

Meanwhile attention turns to the here and now and snow chances through this week. Some could get a damp squib while others may hit the jackpot, fun times.

Edited January 28, 2019 by Mucka

[The Northern Ramper]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

Anyone know how the UKMO looks for snow on Thursday? Wish we could see more data from it.

The Southern members have more data to view than the northerners, hence why we keep hearing it’s correcting south but the charts suggest otherwise.

[winterof79]

20 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

to me looks rubbish for us, looks very south, like a south midlands event?

l may be mis reading the second chart,but to me the interaction is North of the trough which would suggest a lot of snow south midlands upward.

But this looks like a good kick to the nether regions

528 dam miles north and gawd knows where the precip would be?

 

EDIT. Skip that it's yesterday's dohh!!!

Goes for a lie down..

 

 

Edited January 28, 2019 by winterof79

[Drifter]

9 minutes ago, Ramp said:

The Southern members have more data to view than the northerners, hence why we keep hearing it’s correcting south but the charts suggest otherwise.

It'll certainly feel colder up there, as you northerners are so bitter

[The Northern Ramper]

11 minutes ago, Drifter said:

It'll certainly feel colder up there, as you northerners are so bitter

Careful, I thought banter was allowed in here

 

Post was removed but now re-instated, justice

Edited January 28, 2019 by Ramp

[fromey]

On the subject of a Siberian high, written by our very own @Nick F 

Gone quiet on the SSW impact front, but GFS/GOES NAM plots still show reversal into trop around 02/02, but where’s the trop imprint? Word has it that a large Siberian High is the product, which may influence N Europe later in February, certainly bringing v. low temps NE Europe

[MattStoke]

Much more of a wintry mix from the Euro4 for tomorrow.

[winterof79]

Looking good for S/E later

[Lloyds32]

28 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Really am bemused by some of you on here constantly looking for breakdowns in far fi, the cold has only just arrived with snow to come this week but your looking at it all blowing away with ease in fi and taking it as gospel, it’s all going to chop and change so it’s completely irrelevant and pretty sad if you ask me

Breakdown? Breakdown of what? Just some normal winter fare from the NW bringing snow to hills in the north, it looks pretty wet and miserable. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

33 minutes ago, igloo said:

sure would but none have performed very well with the ecm 46 being the worst by miles

The ec 46 igloo has relentlessly showed blocking, and tbh there's still a good chance of it being proven correct. One thing it hasn't showed is complete zonal, and I would say in that respect its been proven correct, tonight's update should be very interesting. My hunch is it will hold firm

[Weegaz]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Looking good for S/E later

Even better for Ireland and NI, both of which rarely mentioned in this forum

[MKN]

9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Much more of a wintry mix from the Euro4 for tomorrow.

Much less from what i saw earlier. 

[tight isobar]

10 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

Even better for Ireland and NI, both of which rarely mentioned in this forum

Yep...the Mummys And daddies look for a pasting.

[MattStoke]

11 minutes ago, MKN said:

Much less from what i saw earlier. 

It was far less of a wintry mix on previous updates. It was mostly snow.

[Timmytour]

On 19/01/2019 at 22:17, Ice Day said:

And what an odd shaped PV?

Those trying to discern what will happen to the PV in the next fortnight form what the models are now showing us would do well to bear in mind the co6k and balls story they were selling us from two weeks ago.....