Cold hunt - models and chat

[winterof79]

7 minutes ago, IDO said:

The trend, especially with a few days to go.

The GFS 12z take: 

 

Click for gif

let's face it we don't know lol

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 144 now out the blocks with a nice curved atlantic ridge...

A long cold week coming up

Steve, would you add a bit of detail to that? Are you thinking jet? TIA

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

GFS T108 - wrap around snow coming up - could potentially snow for most of three days in selected n midlands / e wales spots 

And with further southwards corrections to come people.down south could join in the act!whoevers in the midlands and wales better get the snow shovel ready!!

Gfs still brings widespread snow tomorrow!!looks better than 06z aswell!!

Edited January 28, 2019 by shaky

[Winter Hill]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

And with further southwards corrections to come people.down south could join in the act!whoevers in the midlands and wales better get the snow shovel ready!!

Keep on wishing it south shaky and you could end up missing it yourself lol 

Edited January 28, 2019 by Winter Hill

[ukpaul]

GFS system on Thursday loses a bit of oomph when it pivots, so not so snowy as it moves back. Hopefully not a trend and something to look for on the ensembles which were pretty gung ho about it this morning.

[IDO]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

let's face it we don't know lol

Compare the southward shift from 06z to 12z. The knock on effect is dragging the colder air in quicker:

So the disturbances moving south more likely to be snow post-low 2:

[Man With Beard]

Just now, shaky said:

And with further southwards corrections to come people.down south could join in the act!whoevers in the midlands and wales better get the snow shovel ready!!

I do get the feeling there will be a pivot point that could get fairly consistent snow as the incoming low arrives, passes by to the south and then exits to the east. 

If that actually happens... it could be absolute carnage 

[MattStoke]

Anyone know how the UKMO looks for snow on Thursday? Wish we could see more data from it.

[SLEETY]

 

Could be snow for many now later in the week then,and something seems to be stirring in the far right on the ukmo model at t144 !and it’s on the gfs too.So small chance ,could become big chance of very much colder weather arriving in early febuary!

[snowhope]

The midland is a big Place guys  Not saying that this is misleading but it is not really an accurate description of the affected area. I do think there will be further South west Correction from past experience of the GFS modelling but I suspect North West Midlands to be the current 'sweet Spot'

[winterof79]

6 minutes ago, IDO said:

Compare the southward shift from 06z to 12z. The knock on effect is dragging the colder air in quicker:

So the disturbances moving south more likely to be snow post-low 2:

Hope we all get in the act.

[Cheese Rice]

The GFS mantains the sweet spot as the North Midlands potentially into South Yorkshire. 

The center of the low is further south on this run but this isn't really reflected in the track of the precipitation. 

I'd say we won't have a clear idea till about Wednesday morning. 

[Deep Snow please]

The icon eventually pushes this in our direction at T180 but weakens it substantially and doesn't quite give it enough room to move.

 

[warrenb]

1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

The icon eventually pushes this in our direction at T180 but weakens it substantially and doesn't quite give it enough room to move.

 

That is because of the 1060mb Russian high

[Deep Snow please]

Just now, warrenb said:

That is because of the 1060mb Russian high

Damn shame tbh. Still time for an upgrade I feel like tracking this one down to T0 or it's disappearance (the latter more likely).

[Winter Hill]

4 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

The icon eventually pushes this in our direction at T180 but weakens it substantially and doesn't quite give it enough room to move.

 

Didn’t bluearmy say that there could be another slider at days 10-11 ?

could this be it ?

Edited January 28, 2019 by Winter Hill

[warrenb]

Always look at the NH view

[Mark wheeler]

Nice little Gem 

And is this sliding ?

 

Edited January 28, 2019 by Mark wheeler

[Winter Hill]

2 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Always look at the NH view

Would be very nice if that huge Russian High could back west a few hundred miles. 

[Johnp]

Just now, Mark wheeler said:

Nice little Gem 

Only if you like cold rain unfortunately.

[MKN]

3 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Always look at the NH view

add in the fact that the low is highly likely to be overblown to start with and things could end up significantly different.

[Johnp]

Just now, Winter Hill said:

Would be very nice if that huge Russian High could back west a few hundred miles. 

A few thousand is nearer the mark!

We really need another northward surge of heights just to our West.

[Deep Snow please]

6 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Always look at the NH view

Not beyond the realms of possibility for the Russian and Scandi sections to link up and then allow that allow that low to bowl through underneath them into Europe? Or as stated above for that Russian high to move west a few thousand miles (which would help us out).

 

Not at all likely but not beyond the realms of possibility. But we're discussing an overblown FI low here so it's a bit moot.

Edited January 28, 2019 by Deep Snow please

[kold weather]

26 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I do get the feeling there will be a pivot point that could get fairly consistent snow as the incoming low arrives, passes by to the south and then exits to the east. 

If that actually happens... it could be absolute carnage 

Could be but typically the models overdo the precip levels in such a event. I remember Jan 2010 there was meant to be a second arm of the LP that gave much of England snow rotate into the SE/EA. However when it arrived, it was basically a snizzle fest. I'd suspect something similar would happen there unless there was an active trough/frontal feature moved its way in from the south, not an impossibility it has to be said.

If it were to happen though, your right there would be some very large totals somewhere!

[cheeky_monkey]

17 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Always look at the NH view

i live right where the lobe of purple is in Western Canada..good potential of daytime highs of sub -20c