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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
10 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

icon-0-153.png?28-12

935 Low on the ICON beyond day 6

920 now 

icon-0-159.png?28-12

That could be a pretty intense winter storm heading straight for Europe if the high would just wibble off out the way. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Some pretty extreme snow totals by Saturday on ARGEPE 12Z (UK View not updated yet)

arpege-45-114-0.png?28-16

mainly due to a wrap-around on Friday/Saturday lingering in the areas highlighted

 

No adjustment south there.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
14 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Some pretty extreme snow totals by Saturday on ARGEPE 12Z (UK View not updated yet)

arpege-45-114-0.png?28-16

mainly due to a wrap-around on Friday/Saturday lingering in the areas highlighted

 

Stunning! Notice how once we get the cold in, the snow can pop up!

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl

Can I just confirm we'd expect the next frame in this sequence to be that low displacing the high in the Atlantic and head towards the UK and Western Europe? Significant winter storm/blizzard? I know it's FI but the possibility is fun to consider.

 

image.thumb.png.32c3e3ed5a1ab10443c87995654ef3ce.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Can I just confirm we'd expect the next frame in this sequence to be that low displacing the high in the Atlantic and head towards the UK and Western Europe? Significant winter storm/blizzard? I know it's FI but the possibility is fun to consider.

 

image.thumb.png.32c3e3ed5a1ab10443c87995654ef3ce.png

Why not watch the rest of the run - the answer is no btw! 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
11 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

No adjustment south there.

Any adjustments seem to be related to angle of approach and timings mainly. So far some better runs for the those away from the coasts. I'm literally on the snow southrn boundary on ICON, but do have some altitude and easy access to 250m hills. Could be a night of rain sleet and heavy snow I'm thinking which will be much better than pure rain that was initially advertised!

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

GFS further south and better shape for Thursday low; as expected: 

gfs-1-72.thumb.png.3d1e7a8135d72bbf0c7144901e2a8764.pnggfs-1-78.thumb.png.19c7e10bec7f593a1440d35e3f2c1f2b.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Ukmo t120 more signs of trying to build heights ne

77D6BA59-1E74-4D1B-8B18-3CA1A29F6379.png

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
15 minutes ago, minus86BriJ said:

 

Is that an indication of the high ridging north, the western edge winding the low up like a spinning top keeping the low in situ?

The very cold airmass over the Mid West is forecast to lift out very quickly - Chicago goes from a low of around -34 on Wednesday morning to a high of 4 by the weekend. Could be a reaction to that extremely cold airmass pushing east and interacting with warmer airmass coming from south. Certainly potential for a storm I guess, but probably overdoing it somewhat!

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
23 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

That must be an amazing piece of programming to separate the pattern into FIVE distinct types of precipitation!  I don't even understand the differences - assuming 'verglas' is sleet (?) what are 'brouillard' and 'orage'?

right click on the text and you should get a 'translate to English' option

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, IDO said:

GFS further south and better shape for Thursday low; as expected: 

gfs-1-72.thumb.png.3d1e7a8135d72bbf0c7144901e2a8764.pnggfs-1-78.thumb.png.19c7e10bec7f593a1440d35e3f2c1f2b.png

Getting there, I still think there are some slight southerly adjustments to come but that shouldn't make a huge difference to the snow area, just who gets the jackpot

Can't complain about this evening's runs, again great for Midlands and Wales, but now also Home counties and E.A joining in that Goldilocks zone.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Ukmo t120 more signs of trying to build heights ne

77D6BA59-1E74-4D1B-8B18-3CA1A29F6379.png

It’s been the same story so far this winter. Heights trying to build north but the PV over North Eastern Canada just keeps on spewing out lows. 

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
5 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Can I just confirm we'd expect the next frame in this sequence to be that low displacing the high in the Atlantic and head towards the UK and Western Europe? Significant winter storm/blizzard? I know it's FI but the possibility is fun to consider.

 

image.thumb.png.32c3e3ed5a1ab10443c87995654ef3ce.png

With no blocking in place you'd usually expect it to spin past the north of Scotland, by which time a lot of milder air has been sucked from the southern side. It would probably lose intensity as it made its way across. 

But who knows this winter?

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
5 minutes ago, IDO said:

GFS further south and better shape for Thursday low; as expected: 

gfs-1-72.thumb.png.3d1e7a8135d72bbf0c7144901e2a8764.pnggfs-1-78.thumb.png.19c7e10bec7f593a1440d35e3f2c1f2b.png

Really?Negligible if you let it run.

gfs-2-84.png

gfs-0-84.png

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
23 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Quite some differences with the models  even at this late stage regarding Tuesday  Arome 12z  also brings in the front earlier than anticipated  10am into central parts

 

image.thumb.png.35d36520cd2c2f7e87763bb0fae9b2a6.png

 

This is fine for snow in the midlands, but like slow torture further south. The models have decided to put more energy into a minor front ahead of the main front, and the main front then decays. First front not cold enough for snow, second front was - but piffff! it vanishes! 

Some serious snow shield going on this winter south of the M4

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Really?Negligible if you let it run.

 

 

 

The trend, especially with a few days to go.

The GFS 12z take: anim_bjk2.gif

 

Click for gif

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This is fine for snow in the midlands, but like slow torture further south. The models have decided to put more energy into a minor front ahead of the main front, and the main front then decays. First front not cold enough for snow, second front was - but piffff! it vanishes! 

Some serious snow shield going on this winter south of the M4

In all fairness the models other than Arpege have backed off that idea now...so Arpege is probably just behind the curve on that one. Even GFS which was championing it has dropped it now.

What is noticeable is how the southern boundary actually briefly reaches the coast on this run.

That's about a 200 mile drop in 2 days and we still have 3 days to go....

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Just now, kold weather said:

In all fairness the models other than Arpege have backed off that idea now...so Arpege is probably just behind the curve on that one. Even GFS which was championing it has dropped it now.

AROME now pushing it too. 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Just now, Man With Beard said:

AROME now pushing it too. 

Definitely worth a watch, though I'm never a big fan of those higher resolution models until very close to the time. I'd be more worried if GFS or ECM jumped back off again to be honest.

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