Cold hunt - models and chat

[Glacier Point]

EC 06z rolling out, more elongated with Thursday's low and ppn further south. Midlands on pivot point

[kumquat]

6Z GFS(P) puts us into an easterly at day 10 with snow showers coming onshore. Something to build on for the mid-term

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

EC 06z rolling out, more elongated with Thursday's low and ppn further south. Midlands on pivot point

That trend continuing is guarantee - What about the next month, do you see any chance of an Easterly, as per a few ensemble members?

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

EC 06z rolling out, more elongated with Thursday's low and ppn further south. Midlands on pivot point

Yep, a lot further south I'd say, doesn't even reach my Liverpool-Hull line this time around!

Band weakens steadily north of the S.,Midlands region. As you say, nice elongation as well. I really think this will be a trend that will be picked up by the models today and the next shift south will be seen via this process.

[captaincroc]

Just now, kold weather said:

Yep, a lot further south I'd say, doesn't even reach my Liverpool-Hull line this time around!

Band weakens steadily north of the S.,Midlands region. As you say, nice elongation as well. I really think this will be a trend that will be picked up by the models today and the next shift south will be seen via this process.

It is funny that these things always trend south, you would though when the computer models/algorithms etc get updated that this isn't taken into account? 

[shaky]

7 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

EC 06z rolling out, more elongated with Thursday's low and ppn further south. Midlands on pivot point

Any pics if possible or not allowed

[ptow]

27 minutes ago, matty40s said:

However, will still bring the SE to a halt.

 

Well, a hedgehog crossing the road brings Reading to a standstill, so I imagine 2cm of snow will as well

[shaky]

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yep, a lot further south I'd say, doesn't even reach my Liverpool-Hull line this time around!

Band weakens steadily north of the S.,Midlands region. As you say, nice elongation as well. I really think this will be a trend that will be picked up by the models today and the next shift south will be seen via this process.

How far north does it reach!!derby nottingham?

[kold weather]

Heavy snow for the south on this run by the way due to the slight elongation of the low, looks like roughly 2-4 inches in a 6hr period. Amounts lessen as the front start to slow down. Not *that* dissimilar to the ICON at 06z, but even more snow in the south.

[Bristawl Si]

Just now, kold weather said:

Heavy snow for the south on this run by the way due to the slight elongation of the low, looks like roughly 2-4 inches in a 6hr period. Amounts lessen as the front start to slow down. Not *that* dissimilar to the ICON at 06z, but even more snow in the south.

What day?

[Lauren]

Just a friendly reminder we have the regional threads so that people can post about what's happening in their locality, so we don't clog this thread with IMBY stuff.

 

Ta.

[SMU]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

ICON has the largest totals towards the west, not the east.

ICON - totals reposted

Excluding the central concentration over wales the overall picture is fairly even-

Remember im not saying no snow in the west-

Just a southward shift in the final location of the frontal periphery - also the highest moisture plumes will be further South..

My best guess for centre point of the Front

Northampton ...

[Deep Snow please]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Any pics if possible or not allowed

It's behind a paywall so the assumption is presumably no, as they forum would need to pay for it.

[kold weather]

Just now, shaky said:

How far north does it reach!!derby nottingham?

Reaches Derby, not much more north than that within the 90hrs that the model runs, but the front is weakening at a decent clip by that point so not sure how much steam it would have left. Wales and Midlands still do very well overall, but N.Midlands less on this run than on the 00z.

 

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Reaches Derby, not much more north than that within the 90hrs that the model runs, but the front is weakening at a decent clip by that point so not sure how much steam it would have left. Wales and Midlands still do very well overall, but N.Midlands less on this run than on the 00z.

 

Why do i think this will be a decemeber 10th 2017 type of slider again

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON - totals reposted

Excluding the central concentration over wales the overall picture is fairly even-

Remember im not saying no snow in the west-

Just a southward shift in the final location of the frontal periphery - also the highest moisture plumes will be further South..

My best guess for centre point of the Front

Northampton ...

ECM 06z looks nearly identical to the ICON by the way Steve, but even more snow to the SW than that has due to the slightly better elongation and lower position of the secondary low on the eastern side which just stays in the channel this run.

 

[Man With Beard]

Is anyone else getting a headache trying to keep up with this?!? We have enough trouble trying to pin down what will happen tomorrow, let alone later in the week! 

I had a good look through the ECM 00Z ensembles for Thursday and not only is a moderately major snow event looking likely, it is also completely uncallable. We have clusterings for snow south of the M4, on the M4, between M4/M6, and north of the M6. If you pulled a gun to my head, I'd say do not attempt the M5 between Bristol and Birmingham, or the M40/M1 between London and Birmingham. But any location from the south coast to Lancashire/Yorkshire is in the firing line, really, which is bonkers for an event only 72 hours away.

But Thursday is not the end of the story - there's sneaky little snow events possible every day from tomorrow until Sunday (and Scotland in with a much better chance of something major at the weekend on the ensembles).

If you don't get the tiniest bit of snow this week and you don't live on a coast ... you will be very unlucky!!

[weirpig]

Latest icon 9z run  showing Tuesdays snow at 4pm   More of a wintry mix at this point  South of the Midlands

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Is anyone else getting a headache trying to keep up with this?!? We have enough trouble trying to pin down what will happen tomorrow, let alone later in the week! 

I had a good look through the ECM 00Z ensembles for Thursday and not only is a moderately major snow event looking likely, it is also completely uncallable. We have clusterings for snow south of the M4, on the M4, between M4/M6, and north of the M6. If you pulled a gun to my head, I'd say do not attempt the M5 between Bristol and Birmingham, or the M40/M1 between London and Birmingham. But any location from the south coast to Lancashire/Yorkshire is in the firing line, really, which is bonkers for an event only 72 hours away.

But Thursday is not the end of the story - there's sneaky little snow events possible every day from tomorrow until Sunday (and Scotland in with a much better chance of something major at the weekend on the ensembles).

If you don't get the tiniest bit of snow this week and you don't live on a coast ... you will be very unlucky!!

Hmm...interesting. We are supposed to be travelling on that route to Brum airport Thurs afternoon, with overnight hotel stay at airport, then flying to Mexico early Friday morning....yikes!!! How do i break news to wifey?

[ukpaul]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Latest icon 9z run  showing Tuesdays snow at 4pm   More of a wintry mix at this point  South of the Midlands

Makes sense of the latest Met Office local forecast where showers have suddenly been upgraded to heavy snow before midday (although they are also suggesting some more heavy stuff in the early hours as well, and I'm really not sure where that's coming from). To be honest, the folks at the Met Office are as good a guide as any at the moment.

[ghoneym]

1 hour ago, Northwest NI said:

The Welsh Eastern coast

Costa del Llannerch-Y-Mor on the East coast of Wales ......

Anyway, whats the script with the ECMWF license stuff, I thought if you pay for the service you can share certain model graphics on certain parameters.  Think I read 5 a day or something like that?

[kold weather]

10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Is anyone else getting a headache trying to keep up with this?!? We have enough trouble trying to pin down what will happen tomorrow, let alone later in the week! 

I had a good look through the ECM 00Z ensembles for Thursday and not only is a moderately major snow event looking likely, it is also completely uncallable. We have clusterings for snow south of the M4, on the M4, between M4/M6, and north of the M6. If you pulled a gun to my head, I'd say do not attempt the M5 between Bristol and Birmingham, or the M40/M1 between London and Birmingham. But any location from the south coast to Lancashire/Yorkshire is in the firing line, really, which is bonkers for an event only 72 hours away.

 

Yeah I know what you mean, Thursday is abit of a mess. I'd say that most places between London and my imaginary line between Liverpool-Derby get something, probably quite heavy in places.

However outside of that area, everything is still very much in flux. Could just as easily see a shift north by the 12z suite as south.

I never did believe that we'd have a bowling ball LP with no secondary depressions like was being advertised. Now we are getting close to the time we are seeing more and more of these in the bigger circulation and where they develop, their strength and exact location relative to the flow will make a big difference as to where the snow line ends up.

I wouldn't be shocked if the snow line is still being tampered with to some degree even on Wednesday I'm afraid!

[kold weather]

14 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Latest icon 9z run  showing Tuesdays snow at 4pm   More of a wintry mix at this point  South of the Midlands

Pretty similar to the 00z run at this time, maybe a touch less snow on the backedge and slightly faster on its southern extent, but broad strokes and all! Thanks for posting it.

[Mark Neal.]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Yeah I know what you mean, Thursday is abit of a mess. I'd say that most places between London and my imaginary line between Liverpool-Derby get something, probably quite heavy in places.

However outside of that area, everything is still very much in flux. Could just as easily see a shift north by the 12z suite as south.

I never did believe that we'd have a bowling ball LP with no secondary depressions like was being advertised. Now we are getting close to the time we are seeing more and more of these in the bigger circulation and where they develop, their strength and exact location relative to the flow will make a big difference as to where the snow line ends up.

I wouldn't be shocked if the snow line is still being tampered with to some degree even on Wednesday I'm afraid!

Hi Chaps.. Is there a website we can view like Snow Means aross the suites of ECM/GFS. Obviously can view the GFS/GFSP/ECM but just wondered if easier chart/graph form and where i could view. Sure i've seen it before on here. Cheers.

[Downpour]

33 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

It is funny that these things always trend south, you would though when the computer models/algorithms etc get updated that this isn't taken into account? 

I was wondering about this. It is true that these sort of systems always end up a few hundred miles south of where they were initially progged. I would hope the models has some sort of learning mechanism whereby they counterbalanced their northerly bias, but it would seem not.