Cold hunt - models and chat

[A.J]

39 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Everyone’s covered it well, so just a little summary of the models for the next few days.

Tomorrow: something white could fall from the sky.

Wednesday: something white could fall from the sky.

Thursday: alien invasion from the South-West. 

Friday: alien invasion continues for parts of the U.K threatening the island with lots of white powder! 

Saturdays: the aliens may continue the invasion, then go back home for tea on Saturday night. 

Now you're just being silly....tsk tsk and I thought better of a former mod colleague....

I get the alien invasion bit, very plausible.....but what's all this nonsense about white stuff falling out of the sky?      lol 

Edited January 28, 2019 by beerandkebab

[Britneyfan]

Just cos you only get 3CM of snow, does not mean that it’s not heavy! That’s just how much could accumulate on the ground, you can have heavy snow but nothing accumulate, still makes it’s dangerous for being on the roads 

[Deep Snow please]

37 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Everyone’s covered it well, so just a little summary of the models for the next few days.

Tomorrow: something white could fall from the sky.

Wednesday: something white could fall from the sky.

Thursday: alien invasion from the South-West. 

Friday: alien invasion continues for parts of the U.K threatening the island with lots of white powder! 

 Saturdays: the aliens may continue the invasion, then go back home for tea on Saturday night. 

Planning a Doctor Who marathon this weekend?

[kold weather]

Ok so looking at the GFS ensembles:

Only a couple of runs are as far north as the GFS OP.

About 55-60% have Hull-Liverpool line as the northern border, a couple of those sneak some very weak precip slightly north of there.

The rest get to the Scottish borders before decaying.

Broadly the ensembles are a little north of the ECM ones, but not by a huge margin. The GFS op is not an outlier, but its certainly at the northern end of the ensemble range.

Nearly all give the Midlands snowfall, that is the safest place along with N.Wales from the looks of things, I'd have very high confidence of 10-15cms for W.Midlands, could see some more in a situation where the front stalls out its northward progress there, which is possible.

Edited January 28, 2019 by kold weather

[Chris K]

11 minutes ago, MKN said:

Exactly the prospect of snow tues weds is for something relatively low key, Infact its surprising they released a yellow warning imo.

". A patchy covering of 1 to 2 cm is possible at low levels, although some places will see no snow at all." <-- From the Meto warning

To be honest, the combined risk from the lasting ice on untreated surfaces could be more of an issue, hence the warnings.

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, Chris K said:

To be honest, the combined risk from the lasting ice on untreated surfaces could be more of an issue, hence the warnings.

Plus it mentions quite a bit of snow above 200 metres, with quite a lot of areas of that elevation within the warning areas.

[BlueHedgehog074]

2 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

Now you're just being silly....tsk tsk and I thought better of a former mod colleague....

I get the alien invasion bit, very plausible.....but what's all this nonsense about white stuff falling out if the sky?      lol 

Have a habit of going a bit too far sometimes lol

Apparently there’s a lot of chat on here that a lot of places in the U.K could see something white - snow I believe.

Especially tomorrow and Thursday - the latter looking to be the big, juicy, one!

Just hope for us and the rest of the cold and snow fans in here we’ll all get some of the white stuff we’ve been longing all Winter. This week certainly has the chance to deliver some great wintry events for places with models showing some sliding Lows over Southern UK

Only thing is while it would be great for everyone to get some white stuff, just got to hope the Lows won’t go too far North or too far South. Wouldn’t want anyone South of the M4 to be getting the wet stuff!

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS graph still MEL & KIM.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

17 minutes ago, MKN said:

Exactly the prospect of snow tues weds is for something relatively low key, Infact its surprising they released a yellow warning imo.

". A patchy covering of 1 to 2 cm is possible at low levels, although some places will see no snow at all." <-- From the Meto warning

Had 2 cms of snow last week, took me 2.5 hours to get home, which is normally a 1 hour journey at most. So trust me it needs a warning 

[Methuselah]

13 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Planning a Doctor Who marathon this weekend?

I've just got back from next Saturday, location just north of the M4:  

[Stonethecrows]

18 minutes ago, MKN said:

Exactly the prospect of snow tues weds is for something relatively low key, Infact its surprising they released a yellow warning imo.

". A patchy covering of 1 to 2 cm is possible at low levels, although some places will see no snow at all." <-- From the Meto warning

The vast majority of brits don't know how to drive in snow, even only a cm or 2 so the warnings are justified.

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

I've just got back from next Saturday, location just north of the M4:  

Weird looking daleks! We can all hope for a view like this, models looking promising so far.......

[shaky]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS graph still MEL & KIM.

Yup and gfs para close to an outlier with the northern extent of the low!!im actually worried this event will slip south of the midlands aswell!!

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, shaky said:

Yup and gfs para close to an outlier with the northern extent of the low!!im actually worried this event will slip south of the midlands aswell!!

That's not an issue It can come here if it wants

[matty40s]

29 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The warning is for 1 to 3 cms .... that’s not heavy .......

However, will still bring the SE to a halt.

Knockers posts are showing far less precipitation tomorrow than anything the models linked to on here are showing - and I know who I believe more.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Yup and gfs para close to an outlier with the northern extent of the low!!im actually worried this event will slip south of the midlands aswell!!

Was thinking more about the long term shaky, still a good number suggestive of blocking and proper cold.

[Paul_1978]

28 minutes ago, MKN said:

Exactly the prospect of snow tues weds is for something relatively low key, Infact its surprising they released a yellow warning imo.

". A patchy covering of 1 to 2 cm is possible at low levels, although some places will see no snow at all." <-- From the Meto warning

Exactly - it's the 5-10cm plus that would get the most excitement. 1-2cm isn't ticking the boxes for me.

[Derecho]

Good morning. On this highly uncertain week its very easy to overlook the long range output which has been showing a few changes. For this week Thursday is still up in the air with some football shaped lows (bad) and rugby shaped lows(good - trough disruption). As it stands I don't feel as though I can make a judgement on Thursday. At this stage I reckon somewhere around the peak district / Sheffield area may be best placed but things do resemble December 10th 2017. For Tuesday it still looks like a finely poised rain/snow event. I think this will be a case of nowcasting.

Personally I hope the low pivots right over Hull and leaves us with some snow showers off the north sea afterwards  . I'm not getting my hopes up though.

Longer term the swingometers seem to be shifting towards an  anticyclonic outlook for the start of February. P10 goes further than that and puts us into a cold NE'ly flow. I feel this is far from resolved and what happens on Sunday with the Azores high is key.

  

The anticyclonic signal may persist into mid February but unsurprisingly the swingometers are still highly uncertain. P19 looks bitter and never really gets us out of the cold air for the whole run! Some places would be buried if that came off!!

 

Global temperature anomalies for T168 show the cold pool from the US trying to make inroads to the North Atlantic. Need to keep that tap of warm to Greenland going and get a low stuck to its west to pump up a block.

[winterof79]

56 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Hi TEITS not strictly correct there for Thursday 

E/SE will be *more* favoured than North midlands due to the energy moving East along the front - its not a ' normal ' scenario

Once you get energy travelling east you get More energy along the whole front plus the warm air advection gets pushed east as well-

The GFS with its circular Northward bias pushes everything north where as the high Res ICON moves it East-

If we refer to history- Just like the channel lows - ( & indeed the fax chart ) The North snowline from the GFs looks WAY north out of kilter ....

Well we will have to see when it happens on Thursday.GFS take

ECM has the pivot over South/West Yorkshire /Derbyshire

Tuesday looking snowy too

[Yarmy]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Well we will have to see when it happens on Thursday.GFS take

ECM has the pivot over South/West Yorkshire /Derbyshire

Tuesday looking snowy too

What do the red hashes over West Norfolk indicate: freezing rain?

[ukpaul]

GFS Ensemble now indicating another potential snow event on Sunday going into Monday (map for my location, other locations are available...)

 

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, matty40s said:

However, will still bring the SE to a halt.

Knockers posts are showing far less precipitation tomorrow than anything the models linked to on here are showing - and I know who I believe more.

Not overnight when this is likely to fall in the se - the standstills come when all the traffic rushes onto the road at the same time because people see snow falling and think they won’t get home = gridlock

the original post I answered was related to the se - further nw wasn’t relevant to my reply 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

GFS Ensemble now indicating another potential snow event on Sunday going into Monday (map for my location, other locations are available...)

 

The eps pick up potential for another runner for the end of the weekend/early next week - yes 

[Methuselah]

As IMBYism keeps rearing its ugly head, I thought I'd remark on a radio forecast (Global) that I heard the other night:

It said to expect snow in Wales and Scotland, but only rain on the mainland!

[swfc]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

As IMBYism keeps rearing its ugly head, I thought I'd remark on a radio forecast (Global) that I heard the other night:

It said to expect snow in Wales and Scotland, but only rain on the mainland!

never!!!!! Well ive just been told the snow line for Thursday has moved 200 metres south off Sheffield!!!!!! Anyway im outta here