Cold hunt - models and chat

[ribster]

13 minutes ago, WhiteFox said:

It does a little. But, looking at the Northern Hemisphere view, could be a transitory milder period: seeing an Aleutian Low set up and draining of lower heights over Eastern Canada. Last hurrah for the Atlantic?

Academic of course at this range, but I don't think the ECM day 10 chart necessarily represents a flat and mild pattern for any great length of time.

Spot on, forecasts have mentioned briefly less cold next weekend, doesn't sound mild to me...

Edited January 28, 2019 by ribster
typo

[Summer Sun]

Euro 4 shows the rain starting to turn to snow on its back edge later tomorrow as it gradually moves through

By Wednesday morning the last of the main band is still dragging its heels to clear the far SE and east Anglia with some showers elsewhere

Euro 4 snow depth by 06z Wednesday

Edited January 28, 2019 by Summer Sun

[Sky Full]

13 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Been said hundreds of times, these snow depth charts are an absolute waste of time and are only really ever semi-useful when there are much more pronounced frontal features and there are no marginal factors at play.

Tuesday's wintry potential is coming along as expected this morning.

Just trying to cheer you up mate!  This is a model discussion thread, isn't it?  Actually 90% of the charts published at more than 24 hours out are also a 'waste of time' as you put it, unless you are interested in the weather after that, how it might develop, how the models vary one from another, which of the models is most likely to verify, which charts are easiest to understand and which show the best detail, how the Jetstream and the Atlantic might affect our weather patterns etc etc.  Given that most of us on here are interested in all those things, the snow depth charts are not really a 'waste of time', are they?

Even if they don't verify.

[Dave Kightley]

Here's hoping to see a massive south shift for the south west.. Nothing worse then to see snow to rain!

[shaky]

Ecm deposits 10-15cms of snow even as far south as oxford!!ukmo probably more!!still can see a shift south from gfs next few runs!!

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Ecm deposits 10-15cms of snow even as far south as oxford!!ukmo probably more!!still can see a shift south from gfs next few runs!!

Is this Thursday?

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Ecm deposits 10-15cms of snow even as far south as oxford!!ukmo probably more!!still can see a shift south from gfs next few runs!!

That shift south better happen quick time ..

As it stands i would suggest wales,parts of the midlands and parts of NW England look in the sweet spot for thur..

 

[Harsh Climate]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

That shift south better happen quick time ..

As it stands i would suggest wales,parts of the midlands and parts of NW England look in the sweet spot for thur..

 

I'm suprised, there was a hint of a shift further south last night on a couple of models. I like many others felt like there would be further corrections south on overnight runs and parts like northern england remaining dry but this isn't the case. Still looking very good for midlands/north west england/northern england. Time is running out very quickly for the south hitting the jackpot, somewhere is definately going to get a pasting where the precipitation pivots and becomes slow to clear..

Edited January 28, 2019 by Harsh Climate

[Harsh Climate]

6 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Just a footnote as has been mentioned a few times now by me & a few others-

Following Thursdays Front expecting to reach the North Midlands based on GFS is very unlikely - South Midlands across to EA looks the Line maybe even the M4 the Northward extent...

The GFS is circular which is probably its downfall because the UKMO spreads the energy East & once it starts doing that its usually correct, 

remember an Eastward bias also becomes a Northward bias in this scenario  

The 2 short range models I will be using here is the HIRLAM & EURO 4...

Expect there to be much fun & games Tuesday ! 

Steve to my suprise, I think the models still have it way further north than that. I would have the peak district derbyshire as current sweet spot thursday

[snowsummer]

Anyone tell me where i can post banter thats only loosely model related  please? Thought it was here judging by the other posts, but i must have got it wrong as my post was deleted almost instantly. Genuine question, sarcasm not intended. Thanks

[Harsh Climate]

Hirlam 

 

Gfs 

 

Aprege 

 

 

[Decemberof2010]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

Hirlam 

 

Gfs 

 

Aprege 

 

 

They all look good for us mate. I expected a southern shift which may still happen of course. We will see but it hasn’t happened on the overnight runs 

[kold weather]

16 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

I'm suprised, there was a hint of a shift further south last night on a couple of models. I like many others felt like there would be further corrections south on overnight runs and parts like northern england remaining dry but this isn't the case. Still looking very good for midlands/north west england/northern england. Time is running out very quickly for the south hitting the jackpot, somewhere is definately going to get a pasting where the precipitation pivots and becomes slow to clear..

Not so much a shift south BUT what has changed overnight is the models broadly moving away from a large circular low in favour of an elongated low. There maybe some southward correction of the low but it's probably in the ballpark now. 

Plenty of models only just reaching northern England as well it has to be said.

Also for those further south. We need the front to be angled as much W-E as possible. N-S front edge will be game over from the start down here. The trend this morning has been good on that front.

Edited January 28, 2019 by kold weather

[Jackski4]

ICON should be rolling soon.. Very interested to see the 6z's this morning!

[Shezale coventry]

20 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ecm deposits 10-15cms of snow even as far south as oxford!!ukmo probably more!!still can see a shift south from gfs next few runs!!

That makes the midlands the sweet spot??

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, shezale said:

That makes the midlands the sweet spot??

FAX for thurs, front over the SW, looks good anywhere north, but not too far north, S of the front, mild with rain

[ukpaul]

6 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

They all look good for us mate. I expected a southern shift which may still happen of course. We will see but it hasn’t happened on the overnight runs 

Thursday isn't the type of channel runner which does often go south. This also interacts with another weaker system and the pivot keeps it further north.

Peak District is potentially the sweet spot as others have said. Book a trip to Buxton.....

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

FAX for thurs, front over the SW, looks good anywhere north, but not too far north, S of the front, mild with rain

That looks to me that the SW will suffer any snow to rain and the way systems are moving expect further slight adjustments.  North of a Midlands to miss imo.

BFTP

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

Thursday isn't the type of channel runner which does often go south. This also interacts with another weaker system and the pivot keeps it further north.

Peak District is potentially the sweet spot as others have said. Book a trip to Buxton.....

Alot of models are weakening the front quite rapidly by the that point, though onbviously something like Buxton will have higher settling rates.

Still needs watching, the angle will make a large difference as to where jackpots.

[shaky]

Icon ever so slightly futher west at 72 hours!!

[kold weather]

ICON 06sz broadly again upto Libverpool-Hull line and not much further, jackpot is probably 30 miles south of that location where the front stops pivoting.

Timing once again not the best for the south, though the angle of the frontal attack is now probably about 70-80% right for the south to get snow on that run. A 3-4hr delay would make the world of difference to us.

Sweet spot on ICON somewhere between Derby and B'ham.

[feb1991blizzard]

Im not feeling the longer term picture, the AO forecast to go neutral to positive on the extended eps.

[Updated_Weather]

5 hours ago, offerman said:

No snow for the south looking at those charts. 

So just want to say if we can't get any then  good luck for you northerners hope it gives you a dumping. Enjoy . 

When is a snow depth chart taken seriously? Think a few surprises will pop up.

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ICON 06sz broadly again upto Libverpool-Hull line and not much further, jackpot is probably 30 miles south of that location where the front stops pivoting.

Timing once again not the best for the south, though the angle of the frontal attack is now probably about 70-80% right for the south to get snow on that run. A 3-4hr delay would make the world of difference to us.

Sweet spot on ICON somewhere between Derby and B'ham.

Mate if anyone was living in the midlands and walws i would be getting really excited now!!there could be some serious snowfall totals!!

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Im not feeling the longer term picture, the AO forecast to go neutral to positive on the extended eps.

If we don't see a change in the eps by Wednesday, I expect the Met O long ranger will drop the idea or extend to the end of February.