Cold hunt - models and chat

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Poor runs this morning across the board this morning when thinking of the longer term.

Mid Atlantic ridge much weaker and the Atlantic systems coming in 

Ah, another incorrect sweeping statement. They most certainly do not look poor 'across the board'. 

[MattStoke]

Thursday’s precipitation type charts from the ECM. The front struggles to make it into the far north of England where it fizzles out.

 

Edited January 28, 2019 by MattStoke

[snowking]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Very good runs this morning in the shorter term. 

Models have again shifted to a more elongated look. Should that happen then the south would join in with snow as the band moves up!

Tuesday looks locked in finally, now to lock in Thursday...

Indeed Kold

The ECM not really making much of the Tuesday event now it has to be said, much quicker than the others and maybe 1-3cms for most, nothing too distressing.

However for Thursday it sees the initial front as sleet/snow for pretty much everyone away from the far South, the band then heads north but stalls and pivots with The Midlands being the big winners along with some parts of N England, there is then a second area of precip which heads into Southern England later in the day, a mixture of rain sleet and snow, but that is all academic for now - we’ve seen even with Tuesdays low a tendency to shift around quite a lot so we are still far from certain where that initial front will actually decide to come to a halt at

Euro4 - good looking snow cover but when you check the key, it’s probably generally 1-5cms from the front, so still nothing too significant. But still good to see the likelihood of some widespread snowcover as the week progresses. For me, it’s now all eyes on Thursday

[kold weather]

Yes Matt, the front doesn't have anywhere near the northwards push due to the angle of approach.

UKMO looks like a middle ground between ECM and the more progressive GFS. However if I had to bet based purely bon history, ECM seems more probable.

[halny]

51 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

You are referring to the wrong "wrong type of snow" The "wrong type of the snow" is the famous Feb 91 dry snow that train companies used as an excuse for train delays and cancellations. That'll be  actually for snow lovers the  "right type of snow" and their "wrong type of snow" would be the wet snow that struggles if at all to accumulate. However if comes down at a rate then the "wrong type of snow" can become the right "wrong type of snow" and for transport, heavy  wet snow falls that rapidly accumulate can  become the wrong "right type of snow"

 

LOL. Brilliant. I meant the "wrong type of snow" from our perspective, i.e. the kind that fails to accumulate, except maybe on car windscreens. Nothing more irritating than getting a full day of heavy, falling snow for there to be nothing on the ground at the end of it.

[bluearmy]

clearly there is a shift in thursdays low on the euro models and until we see the noon output we won’t know if there is a further movement to come or a slight swing back. Gfs will hopefully help steer us with its 06z output now it’s within 84 hours but given it’s still further north than the euros, not convinced. 

[knocker]

9 minutes ago, stripeyfox said:

I love this thread. 

I don't understand most of it but I still love it!

That's because it's encrypted. IBM having been working on cracking the NW code for a while now

Edited January 28, 2019 by knocker

[Drifter]

11 minutes ago, Why said:

Ah, another incorrect sweeping statement. They most certainly do not look poor 'across the board'. 

Ok, apart from GFS, which we're usually told to ignore in FI.

[northwestsnow]

Well EC det looks very very snowy for Wales,parts of the midlands and the pennines in particular..

A shame it seems intent on flattening everything out mid term (168)..

 

[SomersetBeer]

13 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Very good runs this morning in the shorter term. 

Models have again shifted to a more elongated look. Should that happen then the south would join in with snow as the band moves up!

Tuesday looks locked in finally, now to lock in Thursday...

When you say South..do you mean Southwest? Also when  you say elongated look does this mean a thinner longer band of snow? 

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

clearly there is a shift in thursdays low on the euro models and until we see the noon output we won’t know if there is a further movement to come or a slight swing back. Gfs will hopefully help steer us with its 06z output now it’s within 84 hours but given it’s still further north than the euros, not convinced. 

It was reflected in the 18z ECM as well. GFS ensembles also toying with the idea at the moment. 

Looking more and more Jan 13 by the day.

Good falls north of M4 from ECM. Even the south joins in for a few hours, though timing of arrival looks bad for us lot here, could really do with 6hr delay to have a greater chance. But at least the ECM put us in the game somewhat.

[That ECM]

8 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Ok, apart from GFS, which we're usually told to ignore in FI.

We have two longer term ops to view, which at the time you posted, one hadn’t come out and one didn’t show the Atlantic coming back in. where do you place longer term? T? Have a look at the mean on the gfs for t300 pus, Atlantic coming back in? It might but no output is showing what you are suggesting and for newbies this is misleading. The signal for blocking longer term is stronger imo than at any point this winter. We will see.

Edited January 28, 2019 by That ECM

[Drifter]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

We have two longer term ops to view, which at the time you posted, one hadn’t come out and one didn’t show the Atlantic coming back in. where do you place longer term? T? Have a look at the mean on the gfs for t300 pus, Atlantic coming back in? It might but no output is showing what you are suggesting and for newbies this is misleading.

Ok, all looking fantastic for the foreseeable then .

I'm just saying things have clearly changed since last night. It's easy to see the strong ridge that was being thrown up to our west has flattened out as @northwestsnow said.

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well EC det looks very very snowy for Wales,parts of the midlands and the pennines in particular..

A shame it seems intent on flattening everything out mid term (168)..

 

Yes in the mid-term it isn't nearly as good as it could be. Short-term I'min love though!

[Polar Maritime]

NetWx-sr take on snow for Tuesday.

 

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Drifter said:

Ok, all looking fantastic for the foreseeable then .

I'm just saying things have clearly changed since last night. It's easy to see the strong ridge that was being thrown up to our west has flattened out as @northwestsnow said.

Longer term from one run to another it will change. For the theme and that has not changed, if it does I will be one that points that out

[kold weather]

GEM doesn't even reach Liverpool-Hull this morning and main focus is on W.Midlands again. Does seem to be a southwards shift this morning.

Still time to shift back in though.

[winterof79]

Friday Looks to be firming up to me as a significant event for England and Wales at least. I don't think that will move much further south.and even a small correction still keeps many happy.

 

[Sky Full]

The definitive snow depth chart - GFS(P) 10:00am Wednesday:

Something there to please everyone, I think, except around the Forth estuary perhaps.....   Would be very nice if this verified - even Cornwall and Pembrokeshire get a covering!

[BlackburnChris]

Well tomorrow will be a radar watch day , 16 hours to go for my area , and still have no Idea what will happen.

[nick sussex]

The low pivot is looking interesting !

A lucky location could hit the jackpot. The GFS op is less interested and there are still lots of different solutions on offer re the low .

In the longer term the GFS develops a decent ridge to the ne , the polar opposite of the ECM which is flat and underwhelming .

 

[sparky1972]

the snow depth charts look like most will get a covering, but do they take into account that some places are going to see rain/sleet before poss turning to snow so alot of it wont settle? 

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

 

Which is it fellas?!

I think NWS is talking more shorter term. 

The ECM better early , the GFS better later on. 

[WhiteFox]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

 

In the longer term the GFS develops a decent ridge to the ne , the polar opposite of the ECM which is flat and underwhelming .

 

It does a little. But, looking at the Northern Hemisphere view, could be a transitory milder period: seeing an Aleutian Low set up and draining of lower heights over Eastern Canada. Last hurrah for the Atlantic?

Academic of course at this range, but I don't think the ECM day 10 chart necessarily represents a flat and mild pattern for any great length of time.

[Optimus Prime]

29 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

The definitive snow depth chart - GFS(P) 10:00am Wednesday:

Something there to please everyone, I think, except around the Forth estuary perhaps.....   Would be very nice if this verified - even Cornwall and Pembrokeshire get a covering!

Been said hundreds of times, these snow depth charts are an absolute waste of time and are only really ever semi-useful when there are much more pronounced frontal features and there are no marginal factors at play.

Tuesday's wintry potential is coming along as expected this morning.

Edited January 28, 2019 by Optimus Prime