Cold hunt - models and chat

[Fred Sykes]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just a footnote as has been mentioned a few times now by me & a few others-

Following Thursdays Front expecting to reach the North Midlands based on GFS is very unlikely - South Midlands across to EA looks the Line maybe even the M4 the Northward extent...

The GFS is circular which is probably its downfall because the UKMO spreads the energy East & once it starts doing that its usually correct, 

remember an Eastward bias also becomes a Northward bias in this scenario  

The 2 short range models I will be using here is the HIRLAM & EURO 4...

Expect there to be much fun & games Tuesday ! 

What's your thoughts on Friday Steve? That T120 Fax looks promising!? 

[SMU]

16 minutes ago, Fred Sykes said:

What's your thoughts on Friday Steve? That T120 Fax looks promising!? 

Sleet & snow in the south- decaying front draining away back South-

[SMU]

ICON 00z creating yet more lift NE of the jet early doors creating more of a closed low over England Tues eve

Fine margins of change 00z first v18z

Edited January 28, 2019 by Steve Murr

[SMU]

Just to add to the analysis

00z 54 V 60 18z PPN accums

[SMU]

Thurs

[Mizzle]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON 00z creating yet more lift NE of the jet early doors creating more of a closed low over England Tues eve

Fine margins of change 00z first v18z

Morning Steve, 

If you have a moment could you briefly explain what impact a closed low would have on our current expectations re: Tue/Wed.

 

Edited January 28, 2019 by Mizzle
Corrected an autocorrect. ?

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS 0z snow zone- further N than ICON

Edited January 28, 2019 by CreweCold

[offerman]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GFS 0z snow zone- further N than ICON

No snow for the south looking at those charts. 

So just want to say if we can't get any then  good luck for you northerners hope it gives you a dumping. Enjoy . 

[Cheshire Freeze]

This morning we have ICON furthest S with a more 'squashed' low- snow sliding across Midlands and CS England

UKMO- middle ground. Snow most probably across Midlands and S parts of N England

GFS- furthest N with snow N Midlands and N England...reaching into Scotland.

Perhaps the UKMO the most pragmatic option at this moment in time?

Anyone got UKMO precipitation charts?

 

Edited January 28, 2019 by CreweCold

[BlackburnChris]

GFS is very different to the other Models , gives Northern England 3 days of Snow , where Icon gives a few hours .

 

Edited January 28, 2019 by BlackburnChris

[Cheshire Freeze]

10 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

GFS is very different to the other Models , gives Northern England 3 days of Snow , where Icon gives a few hours .

 

It's also going to try and give us an easterly

[BlackburnChris]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's also going to try and give us an easterly

Yep, FI must be less than 24 hours at the minute.

[BlackburnChris]

Para also extends Thursday's Precipitation further North.

 

[tinybill]

boom  with the over night  updates  and   with a bone chilling eastly and snow coming off the north sea what  more  would  you whant

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

Edited January 28, 2019 by tinybill

[FetchCB]

23 minutes ago, tinybill said:

boom  with the over night  updates  and   with a bone chilling eastly and snow coming off the north sea what  more  would  you whant

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

For it to T+24 

[halny]

21 minutes ago, tinybill said:

with a bone chilling eastly and snow coming off the north sea what  more  would  you whant

I'd appreciate 850s at or below minus 10C, for one. Sleety slush, cold rain and "the wrong type of snow" are very much a risk on lower ground.

[MKN]

Still a fair bit of rain as well as snow expected going by the the 00z Euro4. The snow cover looks decent by +48 but I'm not convinced it's entirely accurate given its showing rain to begin with.

[Weather-history]

1 minute ago, halny said:

I'd appreciate 850s at or below minus 10C, for one. Sleety slush, cold rain and "the wrong type of snow" are very much a risk on lower ground.

You are referring to the wrong "wrong type of snow" The "wrong type of the snow" is the famous Feb 91 dry snow that train companies used as an excuse for train delays and cancellations. That'll be  actually for snow lovers the  "right type of snow" and their "wrong type of snow" would be the wet snow that struggles if at all to accumulate. However if comes down at a rate then the "wrong type of snow" can become the right "wrong type of snow" and for transport, heavy  wet snow falls that rapidly accumulate can  become the wrong "right type of snow"

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

You are referring to the wrong "wrong type of snow" The "wrong type of the snow" is the famous Feb 91 dry snow that train companies used as an excuse for train delays and cancellations. That'll be  actually for snow lovers the  "right type of snow" and their "wrong type of snow" would be the wet snow that struggles if at all to accumulate. However if comes down at a rate then the "wrong type of snow" can become the right "wrong type of snow" and for transport, heavy  wet snow falls that rapidly accumulate can  become the wrong "right type of snow"

 

That's sorted that one out then

[northwestsnow]

WOWZERS!!!

All i can say is absolutely STONKING 00z runs-

EC looks an absolute peach !!

Best of luck to all for the next 4 or 5 days, i hope as many of my Net Weather friends get as much snow as possible!!

EC 96 is just amazing from where im sat..

Edited January 28, 2019 by northwestsnow

[MKN]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

WOWZERS!!!

All i can say is absolutely STONKING 00z runs-

EC looks an absolute peach !!

Best of luck to all for the next 4 or 5 days, i hope as many of my Net Weather friends get as much snow as possible!!

EC 96 is just amazing from where im sat..

850 temps -1 to -3 for the area in which the main bulk of precipitation would be.  Rain sleet and snow at varying stages. 

[SMU]

EURO 4 Weds midnight snowcover

[Drifter]

Poor runs this morning across the board this morning when thinking of the longer term.

Mid Atlantic ridge much weaker and the Atlantic systems coming in 

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM has similar shaped Thursday low to Icon, but a smidgen further N... 50-100 miles or so. 

[kold weather]

Very good runs this morning in the shorter term. 

Models have again shifted to a more elongated look. Should that happen then the south would join in with snow as the band moves up!

Tuesday looks locked in finally, now to lock in Thursday...