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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, snowray said:

18z ensembles, talk about complete uncertainty, 20c spread there at the end of the run. Well it's been a winter of uncertainties after all I guess.

graphe_ens3.gif

There’s a nice little cluster of ensembles around the 5th going cold down to the -10 mark . Let’s see more tomorrow

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

Lots to look forward too I'd say in Feb, liking the look of the para at D10.:oldgood:

gfseu-0-240.png

gfseu-1-240.png

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)

Anyone notice a more important thing on the para 18z?

 

EDIT : More important than friday's snow chart that is.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Stormeh Accomplished

Stormeh

Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
Posted

8A756BAF-6D8D-43B4-BB8E-90DFC354B21A.thumb.png.8d42813acd03c31504fcd41e6400cd14.png

F402FE59-2141-4C13-A19F-3F4FF72213CF.gif.9e0cc9608be06ef511badce64e599d51.gif

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

UKMOPEU12_120_1.pnghere's hoping for a continuation of the 0z run tomorrow, just loving the dip in the jet stream,

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

And there she is . It definitely coming I can feel it in my fingers I can feel it in my toes . 

E5D092B9-4E23-41F3-9F7E-DA1E8082247F.png

43228D6F-5BFB-49A8-9F73-CBA56FE9487E.png

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Anyone notice a more important thing on the para 18z?

Go on feb tell us but only if it’s good ?

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Go on feb tell us but only if it’s good ?

You beat me to it - or someone else did, i was going to say it, the snap off happened and the timing happened and the Easterly (huge) happened and the snow will come by 384.

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WhiteFox Community Regular

WhiteFox

Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
Posted
16 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Could be the start of a change in the medium range. See my earlier post!

 

Definitely can't rule anything out in the medium to longer range. Forecasting is a mug's game if people categorically state it will definitely be mild or definitely cold...

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Actually not a brutal ending but a cross polar flow, no recovery of the trop PV through late Feb / March if we got to that stage!!

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Actually not a brutal ending but a cross polar flow, no recovery of the trop PV through late Feb / March if we got to that stage!!

Yer the cold air goes into Central Europe. Trends tho feb trends .

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

Ends like this . Wouldn’t be long I don’t think until we would be in the freezer. 

8C75BD43-B163-49EB-85CF-838837F8C86F.png

0E0DF4A3-4B01-4339-8107-BCB587AF8F4B.png

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

18z ECM further south, looks much more elongated low this run. 90hrs and precip just entering SW in a curve that would suggest Midlands is the northern extent.

Not much different from UKMO I'd have thought.

Edited by kold weather
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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

T120 Fax, took an age to come out. 

fax120s.gif

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Blizzardof82 Community Regular

Blizzardof82

Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
Posted
31 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

And there she is . It definitely coming I can feel it in my fingers I can feel it in my toes . 

E5D092B9-4E23-41F3-9F7E-DA1E8082247F.png

43228D6F-5BFB-49A8-9F73-CBA56FE9487E.png

'Cold is all around us and so the feeling grows'

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Fourty Point Three Degrees Seasoned

Fourty Point Three Degrees

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
Posted
33 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

And there she is . It definitely coming I can feel it in my fingers I can feel it in my toes . 

E5D092B9-4E23-41F3-9F7E-DA1E8082247F.png

43228D6F-5BFB-49A8-9F73-CBA56FE9487E.png

The song your looking for is Wishing I was Lucky by the same group

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WhiteFox Community Regular

WhiteFox

Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
Posted
12 minutes ago, snowray said:

T120 Fax, took an age to come out. 

fax120s.gif

A very interesting chart for many reasons. Occluded front by south coast and an ESE draw so dewpoints probably ok. 

Also the system coming out of North America looking like it could disrupt SE as well.

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snowangel32 Rising Star

snowangel32

Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
Posted

So possible Snow for the Midlands tues, Wed, Thurs, Fri. Ermmm Bank plz

In all honesty it's going to be a Nowcasting situation but at present its looking good Nationwide from North to South with disturbances popping up everywhere in the flow bringing Showers to the North and risk of the two lows across the central belt and the South.

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aitchbomb Explorer

aitchbomb

Posted
  • Location: Gloucester
  • Weather Preferences: Snow that settles then freezes!
  • Location: Gloucester
Posted
2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Anyone notice a more important thing on the para 18z?

 

EDIT : More important than friday's snow chart that is.

Little yellow blob?

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted

Just a footnote as has been mentioned a few times now by me & a few others-

Following Thursdays Front expecting to reach the North Midlands based on GFS is very unlikely - South Midlands across to EA looks the Line maybe even the M4 the Northward extent...

The GFS is circular which is probably its downfall because the UKMO spreads the energy East & once it starts doing that its usually correct, 

remember an Eastward bias also becomes a Northward bias in this scenario  

The 2 short range models I will be using here is the HIRLAM & EURO 4...

Expect there to be much fun & games Tuesday ! 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
16 minutes ago, aitchbomb said:

Little yellow blob?

Sort of - the little yellow / green blob ridging up towards iceland, it was the start of a potential Easterly.

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