Cold hunt - models and chat

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

that is tue evening..

We'd need to see Wedneday am to get a good idea of what it's saying - Tomorrow should do it

[J10]

EURO4

GFS     

GFS (P)

ICON    

Precipitation between 3pm and 6pm Tuesday. EURO4 continues to be much less progressive in pushing the front over the UK.

[bluearmy]

Faxes are very late ....... 

[Lampostwatcher]

Just now, Updated_Weather said:

We'd need to see Wedneday am to get a good idea of what it's saying - Tomorrow should do it

9pm onwards Tuesday:-)

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Theoretically...... Exeter have supposedly better short range higher res products but not sure how we get to see their output away from the automated forecast 

That IMO is the best model guidance - go on the website and select the map and select weather, zoom right in on the area you are wishing to see, when you get within 36 hours you can select PPN, there are no PPN type charts and no thicknesses though and no Dew points, just surface temps so you need to toggle between weather type and PPN charts in close run situations, I think its the UKV model, i know you know all this but this is for the benefit of others who might need further guidance.

[Sweatyman]

3 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

So we have a mattstoke and now a mattwolves and who knows maybe even a mattsnow this week  

lets just enjoy what this week has in store of course there will be some disappointments but also some very excited people around, let’s not worry about longer term just yet especially after the crap winter we have had so far

be a bit snowy for swansea blues tues eve

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Faxes are very late ....... 

They should email them

[kold weather]

GFSP still giving some settling snow on Thursday to the south, of course not as much as further north but that would certainly be a turn up if that happened! I'm still thinking that there maybe a few southward corrections, probably not enough to make a major difference for where I am on Thursday, but it may pull more of the south into play.

EURO4 has moved the low a little south, so I suspect the UKMO will also shift on its 00z now, unless every other model is wrong...which is probably unlikely but until the system has formed, who knows!

Edited January 27, 2019 by kold weather

[booferking]

Hello met office forecast.

[Mucka]

As things stand for snow chances.

Tuesday much of England from band moving E/SE

Thu/Fri much of England as trough passes through but maybe rain for some or turn to rain for others.

Saturday possible more snow from E/NE from returning front

So that is 4/5 days some parts of England could see snow falling next week from Tuesday.

Edited January 27, 2019 by Mucka

[Stormeh]

17 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Snow accumulation chart.

Plenty of snow showers pushing into Scotland giving many areas a good dumping. Very interesting week coming up with lots of snow potential for most of the UK and Ireland

[Derecho]

A lot of the GFS ens members going for a circular shaped low  on Friday. We therefore have a rain to snow event on tuesday and a snow to rain event on Thursday/Friday. Not the best 18z it must be said.

Parallel is snowier but this really seems to overestimate snow potential. Hopefully the 00z's will provide some better news. Marginal events often deliver a good deal of snow somewhere but they risk being a let down, lets hope its more the former than the latter.

Edited January 27, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[Bullseye]

1 minute ago, Stormeh said:

Plenty of snow showers pushing into Scotland giving many areas a good dumping. Very interesting week coming up with lots of snow potential for most of the UK and Ireland

Yip very interesting indeed! NW Scotland looks to be getting quite a dumping over next 3-5 days - could leave upto good 30-40cm of snow by Friday. 

[snowray]

19 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Snow accumulation chart.

Could be a nationwide snow event Tuesday/Wednesday if we are lucky, make everyone happy for a refreshing change.

[bradymk]

13 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Any Tuesday evening charts

Snow depth and dew point for Midnight Wed

13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Only runs to T48 ......

Goes out to +54 on weather.us now.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

Could be a nationwide snow event Tuesday/Wednesday if we are lucky, make everyone happy for a refreshing change.

It would make a refreshing change to h ave any kind of snow event never mind a Nationwide one this winter and the last few.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

11 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

So we have a mattstoke and now a mattwolves and who knows maybe even a mattsnow this week  

lets just enjoy what this week has in store of course there will be some disappointments but also some very excited people around, let’s not worry about longer term just yet especially after the crap winter we have had so far

All we need now mark is a jack frost, I do hear you though, so far it's been a let down, but I feel similarities to last year, ie, it's all back loaded again, December milder than average, January could end up above average, even with late cold spell, so Feb really does need to deliver

[feb1991blizzard]

Just gone back to 50/50 regarding potent cold spell mid month now on my swingometer, good GEFS mean and at least the eps graph has stabilised.

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Don't even want to post the Netweather Hi-Res model for Tuesday 4pm... Um extremely underwhelming but typically this model doesn't perform too well.

[johnwirral]

GFS parallel on Friday looks extreme. is it any good or has trump starved it from data?

 

 

[Rocheydub]

Swingometers? Stop now!

 

 

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Don't even want to post the Netweather Hi-Res model for Tuesday 4pm... Um extremely underwhelming but typically this model doesn't perform too well.

Timing isn't great, 4pm is just after peak heating. Would be interesting to see what the frontal snow amounts look like at say 9-11pm.

[TEITS]

Could be the start of a change in the medium range. See my earlier post!

[snowray]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just gone back to 50/50 regarding potent cold spell mid month now on my swingometer, good GEFS mean and at least the eps graph has stabilised.

 

18z ensembles, talk about complete uncertainty, 20c spread there at the end of the run. Well it's been a winter of uncertainties after all I guess.

[Derecho]

Just now, johnwirral said:

GFS parallel on Friday looks extreme. is it any good or has trump starved it from data?

 

 

I'd be very cautious with these charts as they tend to be generous when it comes to snowfall. Today for example it was predicting for showers to fall as snow but they all fell as rain here. I'd also like Fridays low to be shunted a bit further south so its less likely to change to rain. That could easily happen but I have to admit Tuesday is now looking like a storm in a teacup rather than a winter storm.