Cold hunt - models and chat

[shaky]

18z midlands and wales battered with snow at 96 hours right down to the m4 corridor!!something special might be brewing for a few here!!

[pacifist99]

7 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

No more posts on guessing snow depths. I have hidden those already posted.

A mention in general of snow chances in relation to a chart is fine but a competition on guessing snow depths by region in here would send the thread way off topic. 

Please use your regional threads for more in depth chat on snow chances. 

Cheers all. 

Sadly no matter how much you tell people to keep it related they never do it.  Very much like my six year old lol hence my earlier post.  This forum would be so much better if they did what you mods asked them to

keep up the good work dude

[Thunder Snow]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That seems very unlikely - but the north of England and Scotland stay under the coldest part of the troughing and will definitely pick up snowfalls from time to time , especially where an onshore flow exists or convergence zones establish plus troughs which aren’t currently picked up. I would much prefer to be where you are than in the  Home Counties  as far as snowfall is concerned. 

Ill settle for that as long as the weather does something sick of dull damp cool weather. 

[kold weather]

The other thing to watch for is the timing of the system/ It is the wrong side of marginal for the south, but if it was to be delayed then that could help to drag more of us into the equation.

Feels like we are getting close to consensus on Thursday's system as well, but with the proviso that there is still time.

[snowice]

2 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Red is to orange by more than a factor of two in terms of the 3hr/mm precipitation rates. You sit more in the green - light orange zone and in this scenario would dump 5-6mm or rain or perhaps 6cm of snow every 3 hours. That's not bad.

Trust me it's not rain! 

Edited January 27, 2019 by snowice

[Harsh Climate]

3 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

The icon isn't showing accumulating snow for the south on Thursday or much falling snow, snow confined in heaviest bursts but preceeded by rain and on the back edge rain. 

Metociel isn't a good source in determining precipitation type as the graphic overlays are lacking. 

I think realistically if there is a correction south then I'd expect a line somewhere around St Albans to Bristol northwards for lying snow, a wintry mixture further south for places like London. 

 

 

That's right.

Gfs 18 z has it as rain thursday a line south of bristol to north london.

Perhaps even further north going by the next frame 

[Thunder Snow]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

That's right.

Gfs 18 z has it as rain thursday a line south of bristol to north london.

Perhaps even further north going by the next frame 

That will do

[January Snowstorm]

Looking like Ireland could see a right dumping Thursday as the cold air wraps around!!

[Harsh Climate]

I 'll bank this

[Updated_Weather]

MetO fax chart definatly catches my eye

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

I 'll bank this

Still think it'll correct south tomorrow - Further risk down south

[snowbob]

Just now, Updated_Weather said:

MetO fax chart definatly catches my eye

Not best at fax charts but that looks excellent 

[Wilxy]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

I 'll bank this

[bluearmy]

Best to wait for the higher res gfs uk charts to see where snow is predicted by the model ....the European aspect is too crude 

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, snowbob said:

Not best at fax charts but that looks excellent 

Seems London and S/E could get a nice spell from this;)

[kold weather]

Nice little feature for the southerners who don't get anything on Thursday on Saturday morning.

Anyway things are looking good for the Midlands in particular! We will almost certainly need an amber warning at least.

[Cheese Rice]

The 18z ironically pushes snow cover further north than the 12z no lying snow for the far South 

 

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, kold weather said:

Nice little feature for the southerners who don't get anything on Thursday on Saturday morning.

Anyway things are looking good for the Midlands in particular! We will almost certainly need an amber warning at least.

Still expect where I am in London to see snow

[Man With Beard]

9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFS brings some more outbreaks of snow/snow showers across England and Wales on Wednesday. Could see some small surprises outside of the main snow risks this week.

Yes I think plenty of surprises coming up. Forget not how on normal rainy charts, you can wake up seeing no rain forecast (or plenty) and go to bed having seen plenty (or none)! 

Another little twist I see - the normally generous HIRLAM sees Tuesday's event as a predominantly midlands one. Hmmm

[ukpaul]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That seems very unlikely - but the north of England and Scotland stay under the coldest part of the troughing and will definitely pick up snowfalls from time to time , especially where an onshore flow exists or convergence zones establish plus troughs which aren’t currently picked up. I would much prefer to be where you are than in the  Home Counties  as far as snowfall is concerned. 

Up here any corrections aren’t usually south but equally south or north. Bitter experience on that one. Given that the latest runs are pushing them north my major concern is it moving that way at the moment (though Scots will be feeling differently!) The Tuesday feature is doing the same on the ICON but that is narrowing it down gradually given its proximity.

[Updated_Weather]

MetO 72hr fax chart - Deffo snow maker I see there

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Yes I think plenty of surprises coming up. Forget not how on normal rainy charts, you can wake up seeing no rain forecast (or plenty) and go to bed having seen plenty (or none)! 

Another little twist I see - the normally generous HIRLAM sees Tuesday's event as a predominantly midlands one. Hmmm

Does it go far enough ?.

[Thunder Snow]

The precip charts aren't working for me from 93h to 105h. Are they any good

[January Snowstorm]

Anyone know where I can view the thickness chart for Thursday?? Wondering where the 528 line sits..

[Tim Bland]

Mentioned Earlier how the GEM had a front on Weds