Cold hunt - models and chat

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well the last 3 ecm det runs (day 9/10) have shown progressive heights nearer our south or south west coupled with GFS runs but further into FI (consistently)...aren't the issues over the next few days micro details in regards to the Hemispheric pattern?

10 days ago all models were showing a beasterly with northern blocking. Didn’t happen, so no reason to think the mild outcome will happen.

[E17boy]

2 minutes ago, pdiddy said:

I think the cold will stay another day, E17.

Lol live another day!!!  

From my perspective I don't take anything after day 4 as serious. Ok it may turn out that day 10 and after becomes really mild and we see a new pattern or on the other hand it can go the opposite way as well and it could become lot more colder. My point is that day 10 and beyond is subject to change and with the models behaving like they have been doing up to now to be honest non of us know what's going to happen. May be a different story tomorrow.

lets just see how the next few days go and just go with the flow. Hopefully something better will show for us coldies. 

We will always live in that hope which is better than dreading what's going to happen after 10 days.

kind regards

[northwestsnow]

EC raw looks reasonable wrt laying snow by the weekend..

Strangely it looks very sparce in the south, quite suprised by that TBH..

Anyone think why?

Contradicts the meto warning..

Perhaps these charts are a waste of time afterall..

[WhiteFox]

2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well the last 3 ecm det runs (day 9/10) have shown progressive heights nearer our south or south west coupled with GFS runs but further into FI (consistently)...aren't the issues over the next few days micro details in regards to the Hemispheric pattern?

Yes they are, and what do the 500mb anomalies tell us?

A growing trend towards northern blocking. Perfectly consistent with approaching low pressure systems being pushed further south. The anomalies do not show an increasing signal for a milder pattern.

[Harsh Climate]

APRGEGE has mainly rain in the south east / kent tuesday night into wednesday 

Mostly snow to the north

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

10 days ago all models were showing a beasterly with northern blocking. Didn’t happen, so no reason to think the mild outcome will happen.

They don't show mild at day 10 this time, either.

[Jason M]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I think the 13 laughing emojis sums up your post ........can you pleas point me towards those models which are firming up on mild to very mild post day 10 ???

Whilst the original poster was a bit OTT, there is a trend developing for heights to build again over or just the west of Portugal by day 8. If that comes to pass its not good for cold weather prospects. This is evident across much of the model output. Whilst their are uncertainties I think people are brave to simply dismiss that things may get milder in the mid range. Lots of uncertainties this week, but they are mostly micro rather than impacting on the macro pattern.

The 18z will probably show a massive Scandi block now (hopefully)! 

[kold weather]

26 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

ECM has snow as far north as South West Scotland from Thursday's low, before it fizzles out. More of a wintry mix for Southern England.

I think I'll take the ECM for Thursday, there is some front edge snow, which is more than what was looking likely a few days ago. I'm still hoping it adjust southwards, however that is the snow lover in me, and that would almost certainly mean taking it away from you guys further north.

[Froze were the Days]

1 minute ago, West is Best said:

Whatever your disposition, for freezer or flamethrower, the phrases 'firming up' and 'day 10 and beyond' shouldn't belong together in the same sentence. Or even post. Actually, they shouldn't even belong together in your mind.

I'll just about accept 'firming up' for charts at T72-96 but that's it. This is model forecasting not Government bonds.

Yes perhaps re-worded so your correct - more consistently being modelled then...I know everybody is searching for cold and snow but there are 2 sides to every coin anyway with that may laughs on my original post I'll think I'll do stand up as a profession.  

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well the last 3 ecm det runs (day 9/10) have shown progressive heights nearer our south or south west coupled with GFS runs but further into FI (consistently)...aren't the issues over the next few days micro details in regards to the Hemispheric pattern?

Firstly, no one takes ec dets day 9/10 over seriously .....fwiw, day 9/10 12z has a snow event as a front moves through so that’s not so mild is it?

and the clusters at day 12 show plenty of high anoms growing to our north 

[Allseasons-Si]

1 hour ago, TEITS said:

I am beginning to think I might of been wrong this morning with the medium range.

Compare 12Z GFS with a couple of days ago for the 4th Feb.

Are we about to see a change within the reliable timeframe of a continuation of the cold? May I dare to suggest the fabled Greenland High may even develop?

At the moment im clueless with regards to snowfall this week and clueless what happens afterwards.

 

10 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well we'll see who has the last laugh!...(as you like to laugh out loud)

 

5 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well the last 3 ecm det runs (day 9/10) have shown progressive heights nearer our south or south west coupled with GFS runs but further into FI (consistently)...aren't the issues over the next few days micro details in regards to the Hemispheric pattern?

I am not having a dig at you Froze but i thought that i would bring TEIT'S post up just to illustrate that we cannot trust the models that far out and has been said numerous times in here

let's see what happens to tue/thu's events first,that's as far as i would go

[karlos1983]

I for one am not expecting a repeat from the EC46 tomorrow that we’ve been used to seeing. Perhaps then you’ll see a change in wording from the MetO Perhaps not.... something has to give soon

Edited January 27, 2019 by karlos1983

[FetchCB]

5 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well the last 3 ecm det runs (day 9/10) have shown progressive heights nearer our south or south west coupled with GFS runs but further into FI (consistently)...aren't the issues over the next few days micro details in regards to the Hemispheric pattern?

Micro details today =major impacts and 10 days time... It's called chaos theory of which the weather and the models that try to predict are prime example. 

If you look at the ensembles you will see that after 72 hours the various runs with slightly different micro details set at initialisation go of at a tangent. 

 

[kold weather]

10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Euro 4 precipitation chart at T54 looks like it might be preparing for a South coast blizzard (or flood?!) in the 6 hours after. Very intense rain very close by, much much closer than ECM. 

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr-hd/england/precipitation-6h/20190129-1800z.html

Very close, may well hit IoW and far southern coastal towns. All bets are off if it does get them. Peak rates there are well over 2 inches an hour just north of the core.

It is very close to the UKMO which perhaps does raise some interesting questions...however still has relatively little support.

Still its a big ole wildcard for sure!

Harsh - this was discussed earlier, basically, it doesn't handle certain situations very well with precip, especially grapuel/wet snow. I was saying earlier, it had rain showers last Feb in the beast with dew points of -5C and 850hpa at -15C!

 

Edited January 27, 2019 by kold weather

[doghouse]

3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Yes perhaps re-worded so your correct - more consistently being modelled then...I know everybody is searching for cold and snow but there are 2 sides to every coin anyway with that may laughs on my original post I'll think I'll do stand up as a profession.  

Thought ye already did,Allan. Yer posts have certainly got a Comedic value

[Harsh Climate]

Just now, Spah1 said:

Met Office must be wrong then. 

Email them to let them know 

I was just showing what a perticular model is showing. Please pick your toys up and put them back in the pram 

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Whilst the original poster was a bit OTT, there is a trend developing for heights to build again over or just the west of Portugal by day 8. If that comes to pass its not good for cold weather prospects. This is evident across much of the model output. Whilst their are uncertainties I think people are brave to simply dismiss that things may get milder in the mid range. Lots of uncertainties this week, but they are mostly micro rather than impacting on the macro pattern.

The 18z will probably show a massive Scandi block now (hopefully)! 

Was noted on the 00z run and strong day 10 support on the spreads ...however, ridging from there is not uncommon as part of the mechanics for establishing heights to our north/northeast so would be waiting to see where this goes over the next few days (if it still shows) 

[Froze were the Days]

Well I'm off (ruffled enough feathers)...not on purpose but I'm far from convinced that we'll see any northern blocking come February, as for showing 500mb anomalies and ec clusters they were also off the mark a week or so back - 2 sides to every coin!...just a hunch and I'm not Ian Browns doppelganger by the way.

[Isleofwightsnowgal74]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Very close, may well hit IoW and far southern coastal towns. All bets are off if it does get them. Peak rates there are well over 2 inches an hour just north of the core.

It is very close to the UKMO which perhaps does raise some interesting questions...however still has relatively little support.

Still its a big ole wildcard for sure!

 

 

Can I just confirm u are talking Isle of Wight there as a possibility? Is this Tues evening? 

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I for one am not expecting a repeat from the EC46 tomorrow that we’ve been used to seeing. Perhaps then you’ll see a change in wording from the MetO Perhaps not.... something has to give soon

Any reason karlos? Just as we get eps clusters showing high anoms to our north week 2, you expect the ec 46 to jump off for weeks 3 and 4 ??.

[Mike Poole]

Just before the ECM ensembles, I sense a feeling that as the high latitude blocks might be moving over this side of the north hemisphere, the cold air isn't.  That's temporary.  It will come, the blocks are more important.  

ECM 0z mean T240 850 temps:

Looks like a hippopotamus, yes but two key things:

• It's an ensemble mean hippopotamus.
•  It's looking at us. 

 

 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well I'm off (ruffled enough feathers)...not on purpose but I'm far from convinced that we'll see any northern blocking come February, as for showing 500mb anomalies and ec clusters they were also off the mark a week or so back - 2 sides to every coin!...just a hunch and I'm not Ian Browns doppelganger by the way.

No offence but you cannot be surprised you're ruffling feathers when your basis for a lack of northern blocking is to ignore 500mb anomalies and clusters, etc and go on pure hunch because 'they've been wrong before'  

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well I'm off (ruffled enough feathers)...not on purpose but I'm far from convinced that we'll see any northern blocking come February, as for showing 500mb anomalies and ec clusters they were also off the mark a week or so back - 2 sides to every coin!...just a hunch and I'm not Ian Browns doppelganger by the way.

Don’t go to far, we are like a village in here and every village needs one

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well I'm off (ruffled enough feathers)...not on purpose but I'm far from convinced that we'll see any northern blocking come February, as for showing 500mb anomalies and ec clusters they were also off the mark a week or so back - 2 sides to every coin!...just a hunch and I'm not Ian Browns doppelganger by the way.

Please can you show this (for more than one run) 

eps (and by definition clusters) showed euro troughing (and lower temps) establishing post 20th jan

the T2 anoms seem reasonable on this thus far and will be even stronger by the end of the month 

[MattStoke]

4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well I'm off (ruffled enough feathers)...not on purpose but I'm far from convinced that we'll see any northern blocking come February, as for showing 500mb anomalies and ec clusters they were also off the mark a week or so back - 2 sides to every coin!...just a hunch and I'm not Ian Browns doppelganger by the way.

Bit of difference between saying there will be no northern blocking and saying it will be mild/very mild. There's no northern blocking at the moment but I won't be getting the BBQ and deck chairs out this week.

Hilarious comments. Good Sunday night entertainment.