Cold hunt - models and chat

[Ice Day]

ECM v GFS at day 7

  

Safe to say, much to be resolved! FI is probably 72 at the moment.

[snowbob]

1 hour ago, TEITS said:

I am beginning to think I might of been wrong this morning with the medium range.

Compare 12Z GFS with a couple of days ago for the 4th Feb.

Are we about to see a change within the reliable timeframe of a continuation of the cold? May I dare to suggest the fabled Greenland High may even develop?

At the moment im clueless with regards to snowfall this week and clueless what happens afterwards.

Have seen a lot of seagulls today @TEITS maybe a sign

the models certainly hinting at it

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Looking forward to seeing EC precip charts if anyone who has access can post them please

T144 worry would be the dew points but there is a decent precip signal for East Anglia and South East

[ICE COLD]

The USA looking toastie at T168 . Feel sorry for them . Not . 

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

No one is saying it is, it is chart that unlocks the door to a potentially protracted spell with easterly or northeasterly winds that is all.  That by itself is enough!  

I wish people would think before posting such nonsense.

If you look back, somebody claimed it to be. Silly one liners. At least you waited for the 144 chart.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, snowbob said:

Have seen a lot of seagulls today @TEITS maybe a sign

the models certainly hinting at it

Indeed. And the grebes are all facing southwest. I think that's a twofer!

[Guest]

Hmm, the cold just about hanging on in the east at t+192. Not a million miles away from something much better though, looking at the overall profile.

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed. And the grebes are all facing southwest. I think that's a twofer!

Our local cows are wearing ushanka's. Not sure what that means 

 

Edited January 27, 2019 by Liima

[snowbob]

5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

The USA looking toastie at T168 . Feel sorry for them . Not . 

That to me is the biggest sign of all

remember Ian mc caskill famous forecast 1991

Edited January 27, 2019 by snowbob

[igloo]

looks good from the ecm for at least  a 7 day cold snap for all the country not just the north and even after that there is hints of some northern blocking at the 8-10 day time frame so please folks dont start talking about breakdowns will you

Edited January 27, 2019 by igloo

[snow freak]

11 minutes ago, snowice said:

Should be loads of ppn Lake effect snow, raw east wind low uppers for the east coast . 

only if the lakes havent frozen over.  Once they do that during the winter the lake effect snow is cut off.  They usually get lake effect snow earlier in their winters rather than later on.

[snowice]

1 minute ago, snow freak said:

only if the lakes havent frozen over.  Once they do that during the winter the lake effect snow is cut off.  They usually get lake effect snow earlier in their winters rather than later on.

It happens alot over the North Sea. 

[MattStoke]

ECM has snow as far north as South West Scotland from Thursday's low, before it fizzles out. More of a wintry mix for Southern England.

Edited January 27, 2019 by MattStoke

[swfc]

EC looks a bit of a holding position in fi.coldish air about but not much movement

Nhp not to bad but subject to change I guess 

[Mike Poole]

First look for Tuesdays snow from the HIRLAM 12z at T48:

From there you would envisage snow for most places on a SE trajectory.  

Other models on the longer term, JMA T192, CMA T240 (yes, whack them all out as we are having a snow anticipation party!):

Never mind the implications immediately for UK, high lat blocking on our side of the NH, the takeaway theme from today's 12s.  Bank.

[ICE COLD]

We don’t like seeing outliers when the ops show a freeze but I think we’ll take the op being such an outlier towards the end on the GEFS 12z . A lot of scatter from day 10 onwards . 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, E17boy said:

That may be a trend but I think at this moment of time I would not take anything beyond day 4 or 5 seriously. Look at how much chopping and changing there has been in the last few days. Who knows tomorrow may be another story for the extended period

But the trend is your friend!

[shaky]

12 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

ECM has snow as far north as South West Scotland from Thursday's low, before it fizzles out. More of a wintry mix for Southern England.

And a cover for midlands and wales!!

[kingdogleash]

Looks like whole of central southern England will get snow to varying degrees from latest runs.

[pdiddy]

5 minutes ago, E17boy said:

That may be a trend but I think at this moment of time I would not take anything beyond day 4 or 5 seriously. Look at how much chopping and changing there has been in the last few days. Who knows tomorrow may be another story for the extended period

I think the cold will stay another day, E17.

[Derecho]

Pretty good ECM I think and by Friday winds turn easterly The uppers aren't anything to write home about but when we get air from the continent we can get away with them being a bit higher.

I wouldn't analyse the long range output too much as I previously mentioned what happens this week has a knock on effect.

Would be nice to see a link up with the Siberian / Eurasian high as even by their standards it's notably cold over there. We could do with that cold marching eastwards.

Overall I think we are entering one of those setups where any mild air keeps getting pushed back, just wish the low on Tuesday would go a bit further north! 

[Penicuikblizzard]

45 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Uppers are shocking, pretty useless easterly lol. If you can indeed call it that..

Good uppers in the North,,,any precipitation will be snow 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, The BEAST From The East said:

A friend of a friend who's a friend of a weatherman who I'm not allowed to say his name said mild weather is on the way and the secret super computer is showing this clearly now.

A friend of a friend of a friend or just a friend of a friend ......I think it matters! 

[Froze were the Days]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I think the 13 laughing emojis sums up your post ........can you pleas point me towards those models which are firming up on mild to very mild post day 10 ???

Well the last 3 ecm det runs (day 9/10) have shown progressive heights nearer our south or south west coupled with GFS runs but further into FI (consistently)...aren't the issues over the next few days micro details in regards to the Hemispheric pattern?

[Man With Beard]

Euro 4 precipitation chart at T54 looks like it might be preparing for a South coast blizzard (or flood?!) in the 6 hours after. Very intense rain very close by, much much closer than ECM. 

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr-hd/england/precipitation-6h/20190129-1800z.html

Edited January 27, 2019 by Man With Beard

[West is Best]

21 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well the models are firming up on becoming mild to very mild in day 10 and beyond...I wonder how long it will take the MetO to drop the cold signal from their outlooks? (which have largely been poor all season).

Whatever your disposition, for freezer or flamethrower, the phrases 'firming up' and 'day 10 and beyond' shouldn't belong together in the same sentence. Or even post. Actually, they shouldn't even belong together in your mind.

I'll just about accept 'firming up' for charts at T72-96 (day 3 to 4) but that's it. This is model forecasting not Government bonds.

Edited January 27, 2019 by West is Best