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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
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Posted (edited)

UKMO ppn brings ~20cm into the SE (kent) across 18 hours but 5-10 more widely North of London !

Of course lots more areas to the NW effected as well -

 

Edited by Steve Murr
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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

GFS ensembles are looking a little more in agreement, at least in terms of the broad pattern through 96hrs. However it really would only take a very subtle change for this event to go from being a N.england/Scotland event only, through to it being a south event only. I have to say though I think the GFS/GFS ensemble suite are deepening this system too much, I suspect something like 975nbs would be reasonable in this solution, quite a few ensembles are going down to 965mbs which IMO is overcooking it.

Tuesday does look like it has decent enough agreement now at last.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
4 minutes ago, swfc said:

Country file shows snow Tuesday then dry most of the week.cold tho before turning milder temporary

Aye, Thursdays low/fronts not making it this far NE, like UKMO, GFS looks so wrong, expect future GFS runs to backtrack, trending SW with Thursdays low

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

First, just like to say the discussion in here is excellent tonight, after a couple of days when I thought this cold hunt thread might not work. Really enjoyed reading everyone's thoughts, and it's frantic, models giving interesting output on at least four different timeframes!

FV3 out to T156, and this already looks lined up for stonkability.  Here:

image.thumb.jpg.906aac68c01f43b3287a73d983e0ea86.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.1a8ed762babb46a8431ad81f8c8729ee.jpg

Weak ridge into Greenland, only light blue, but could connect with Scandi heights.  Uppers not bad, and will get better!

 

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Should I ring weathercall and see what they say

If you wish, whatever floats your boat!!!

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
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Posted (edited)

I am beginning to think I might of been wrong this morning with the medium range.

Compare 12Z GFS with a couple of days ago for the 4th Feb.

gfs-0-192.png?12gfs-0-240.png?12

Are we about to see a change within the reliable timeframe of a continuation of the cold? May I dare to suggest the fabled Greenland High may even develop?

At the moment im clueless with regards to snowfall this week and clueless what happens afterwards.

Edited by TEITS
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
25 minutes ago, RAIN RAIN RAIN said:

The fabled f-shaped euro high

gfs-0-384.png?12

Can f-off

Feb '98 style, FI though

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

First, just like to say the discussion in here is excellent tonight, after a couple of days when I thought this cold hunt thread might not work. 

FV3 out to T156, and this already looks lined up for stonkability.  

1

I couldn't agree with you more on both points.  Last night was a bit of a car crash on here (possibly assisted by some Saturday night refreshments), but today has been really excellent.

Regarding your second point, the Para does indeed look 'primed' for top class shenanigans.

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO ppn brings ~20cm into the SE (kent) across 18 hours but 5-10 more widely North of London !

Of course lots more areas to the NW effected as well -

 

Look aboutcorrect In placements/amounts.^^^

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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted
1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Tuesday just coming into range of the Euro4 model.

euro4.gif

Looks very light and patchy going by that, may get a dusting to high ground but that’s about it. Lots of changes to come I feel

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO ppn brings ~20cm into the SE (kent) across 18 hours but 5-10 more widely North of London !

Of course lots more areas to the NW effected as well -

 

What about the midlands steve?

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
8 minutes ago, TEITS said:

I am beginning to think I might of been wrong this morning with the medium range.

Compare 12Z GFS with a couple of days ago for the 4th Feb.

gfs-0-192.png?12gfs-0-240.png?12

Are we about to see a change within the reliable timeframe of a continuation of the cold? May I dare to suggest the fabled Greenland High may even develop?

At the moment im clueless with regards to snowfall this week and clueless what happens afterwards.

You're nae alone, Dave...A few days' back, I said the GFS looked FUBAR. I didn't know why, at the time; and I don't know why, now. Maybe wishful thinking worked - for once!

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO ppn brings ~20cm into the SE across 18 hours but 5-10 more widely North of London !

What is noticeable is how much slower the UKMO evolution is, it still has the snow in the far east at 12z on Wednesday. Meanwhile most runs are about 12hrs quicker. Worth watching!

As you say, very snowy run, especially for that SE corner. Rates right on the coast of snow are close to 2 inches an hour at 06z on Wednesday!

Also UKMO has snow ONLY for the SW and Ireland (cornwall and Devon) on Friday. I'd probably suggest it may have adjusted a bit too far the other way.

 

 

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted
6 minutes ago, shaky said:

What about the midlands steve?

what you really mean is 'Will it snow in Leicester, or more precisely my back garden?".....go on !!!! admit it !!!!!... lol

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Looks like the Para has managed to pluck defeat from the jaws of Victory in FI, although it's probably as feasible as the Op.  

image.thumb.png.bc372c399aea46ca50c32edab6a0754c.png

OK, time for a 'reset' then onto the ECM.  It's all go in the world of chart viewing!!!

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ukpaul Aficionado

ukpaul

Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, shaky said:

What about the midlands steve?

Not Steve but up to 4 ins on Tuesday right up to the Pennines (though no further north) and maybe up to 6 ins in favoured spots on Thu into Fri, also going up to the North East and maybe Borders.

EDIT: I’m at elevation, so probably less in low lying areas.

Edited by ukpaul
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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Tuesday just coming into range of the Euro4 model.

euro4.gif

That low is a good deal further north than most of the global models. Indeed the only model that looks close to that is...UKMO....

GFSP has snow on the leading edge even for the far south, which I think isn't a bad solution IMO. Front still gets decently far north. Snow line on that particular model is probably Liverpool eastwards. Below that is a varying length of transition, with more south the further north you go on a gradient.

Edited by kold weather
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Dean E Community Regular

Dean E

Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
Posted
17 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Tuesday just coming into range of the Euro4 model.

euro4.gif

Ties in well with the UKMO output today, even close to their faxes which is encouraging. 

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

Anyone else noticed that front pushing east late on weds on the GEM?..whatever happens it’s going to a snowy week for most

0AC3CAD4-630C-40F8-819E-9C001A632CB1.png

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
2 minutes ago, booferking said:

In what way early middle are late on?

Generally sticks with its earlier run.no great blocking ie gFS 12z

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BARRY Aficionado

BARRY

Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
Posted
20 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Tuesday just coming into range of the Euro4 model.

euro4.gif

no snow for the SW on that chart

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