Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Recommended Posts

swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Big jump there on the ukmo?can mean only one thing "dell Shannon entropy"!!! Hats off to it I'll get my coat 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Popular Post
Posted

Wowzers, this has all the hallmarks of epicness at 198... blocking all over the NH.  Brilliant to see and not deep in FI either.

image.thumb.png.40c72452742aace1d4e8a032b266d4fb.png

 

  • Like 12
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

npsh500.png

Well there's little doubting that some potential exists to import cold from unusually far east given the presence of so much in the way of high-latitude height rises and the trough by the UK trending further SE (significant factor if it continues to do so), but some cooperation from the N. Atlantic pattern is needed to really set things in motion.

Hints of it being kinder to us on the 12z as of D7 with more of a ridge N from the Azores, but it's tentative.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

Wowzers, this has all the hallmarks of epicness at 198... blocking all over the NH.  Brilliant to see and not deep in FI either.

image.thumb.png.40c72452742aace1d4e8a032b266d4fb.png

 

I thought winter was over? 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ Aficionado

❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

Posted
  • Location: Wiltshire
  • Location: Wiltshire
Posted
10 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

One thing about the 12Z UKMO at 96 hours - it’s going for the bunny rabbit Low over the U.K.

43FB222B-1754-4BEB-AEC4-F76D2FB7485D.thumb.png.19f11da147b29d90b1d5e9d6d3129362.png

Really hopping to it with cold weather. 

Is that it's tail ridging up to Greenland 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Should see the Scandi high link up with the Greenie in the next couple of frames

image.thumb.png.dff8840f32a0607f0123dcc417e59450.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

I thought winter was over? 

Na. That was 6 hours ago when people were proclaiming that spring warmth is set for next week.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Popular Post
Posted

Tuesday's snow looks pretty widespread on the GFS 12z with dew points falling behind the cold front any rain turning to snow before dying out.

753996878_viewimage(1).thumb.png.1c340fd42334e60f15dca8f5c3e92a54.png2143887701_viewimage(3).thumb.png.e6ed11d4a4877c89935c1045cfc2d840.png1997724170_viewimage(2).thumb.png.4e778e03788c9bbcebf093810d8ed598.png62112239_viewimage(5).thumb.png.48c70d77892b8ac5f4cbc437a162dc40.png

Of course we are still around 48 hrs away and still time for adjustments but  i would expect many places would see something from this.

  • Like 12
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Rocheydub Seasoned

Rocheydub

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Posted
15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Is it just me or is the vortex just disintegrating here by next weekend?

image.thumb.jpg.c261db0aef371296f0840cf677160609.jpg

GFS T150.

Vortex looks like the dodo bird and is about to become as extinct as it!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

Oh yeah... NetWx charts lag Meteociel by about 24 hours of model-time so my cautious musings were immediately rendered too much so .

Eyebrows raising as the MJO P7 type pattern response suddenly starts taking shape at just a week's range. Are the models really that poor at handling the propagation of the signal across in advance? Maybe... but it's too soon to draw reliable conclusions.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, RAIN RAIN RAIN said:

Is that it's tail ridging up to Greenland 

I believe so! It’s tail may just save this Winter for us!

(Although it’s true as others say, this week could see a great taste of Winter for a lot of us with the models showing those Southerly tracking Lows). 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Wowzers, this has all the hallmarks of epicness at 198... blocking all over the NH.  Brilliant to see and not deep in FI either.

image.thumb.png.40c72452742aace1d4e8a032b266d4fb.png

 

Just one slight criticism - the pool to the SE wont cut it, however, we might get that cold pool  N of Scandinavia could come down on a NE flow later in the run, if that Atlantic trough behaves and the vertical WAA continues.

EDIt : the pool near Svalbard.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

If this is a trend

gfsnh-0-216.png?12

then I think we can expect to see the Siberian high slowly modelled further NW so it is ridging into Scandi for the same time-frame with Euro trough a little further E and Atlantic ridge a little further W which would of course be a perfect set up for a frigid retrograde pattern.

Output certainly keeping the forum on its toes.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I wouldn't take the snow on that as verbatim, it tends to run too mild in my experience and not show anywhere near enough snow, especially if its light (even in the beast from the east, light precip was rain on it!)

Also I totally disagree with that 2nd point, it has got snow pretty much from B'ham south, strongest stuff located in the south of course, but its NOT just a SW affair on it, far from it in fact!

arpegeeur-2-114.thumb.png.c709ff406f7e20804a2ccd8c09faf0b0.png

I meant south - west of the UK, rather than Devon/Cornwall ;)

but as for Tuesday, it is my feeling that inside T48, the ARPEGE is king when it comes to frontal snow. Hope not though! 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Sweatyman Seasoned

Sweatyman

Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
Posted
4 minutes ago, TomW said:

gfs-0-288.png?6From this!

gfs-0-210.png?12To this!

7vos5.thumb.jpg.7ab0e62cf21db51f09ed424be28deee4.jpg

little bit different 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just one slight criticism - the pool to the SE wont cut it, however, we might get that cold pool  N of Scandinavia could come down on a NE flow later in the run, if that Atlantic trough behaves and the vertical WAA continues.

Indeed, not perfect but this won't be the final outcome.  The direction of travel is more important (I know you know that) and the direction is looking more than interesting.  

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I meant south - west of the UK, rather than Devon/Cornwall ;)

but as for Tuesday, it is my feeling that inside T48, the ARPEGE is king when it comes to frontal snow. Hope not though! 

I've been assessing it for a while and found ARPEGE to have a substantial rain over snow bias until within about 24 hours of the event, but then does very well. So similar ideas but different details... hopefully my observations come through on this one should it follow the track ARPEGE goes with (big caveat there anyway!).

Edited by Singularity
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

Well by T234 on GFS all hell seems to have broken loose as far as the northern hemisphere is concerned, 850s still modest for us at the moment, but I'm liking this run.

image.thumb.jpg.6a0010fa7d95194ca0f771e4cf3f763f.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ad72e2c6764e86ccbed8ef7a7edfdf02.jpg

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I meant south - west of the UK, rather than Devon/Cornwall ;)

but as for Tuesday, it is my feeling that inside T48, the ARPEGE is king when it comes to frontal snow. Hope not though! 

The distribution actually looks similar to storm Emma last year, and yeah there is more Hampshire west for sure!

Still its hard to know how likely that is, it seems the models are nearly all except for the big ones flipping from camp and camp each run, so clearly they are still picking on differing signals!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Deep Snow please Rising Star

Deep Snow please

Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Well by T234 on GFS all hell seems to have broken loose as far as the northern hemisphere is concerned, 850s still modest for us at the moment, but I'm liking this run.

image.thumb.jpg.6a0010fa7d95194ca0f771e4cf3f763f.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ad72e2c6764e86ccbed8ef7a7edfdf02.jpg

-3236 uppers over the north pole on chart 2. Another ice age?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...