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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The Background signals are really starting to show as we go further into February on the Gfs 6z operational!:shok::crazy:

06_288_ukthickness850.png

06_300_uk2mtmp.png

06_300_mslp850.png

06_312_ukthickness850.png

06_324_uk2mtmp.png

06_324_mslp850.png

ooh-matron-kenneth-williams-carry-on-bouvier-des-flandres-puppies-for-sale-uk.jpg

169993-Brace-Yourselves-Summer-Is-Coming.jpg

Edited by Frosty.
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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
11 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

Plenty of PPN is way north of the Tuesday system. The Pennines and areas East and West look to do just as well as further South and without that element of marginality. Look for the next warnings to extend further north and west.

Indeed and current warning graphic hints at that 

05A738B4-51EF-4AE9-A75A-B3114038362B.jpeg

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Popular Post
Posted

A few recent posts have been hidden. Please cut out the sniping around regional snow chances.It brings an unfriendly atmosphere to the thread. 

With this set up many parts are in with a chance of seeing some snowfall in the coming days so let's enjoy the possibilitys and keep things friendly. 

Thanks all. 

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Borei Aficionado

Borei

Posted
  • Location: East Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold.
  • Location: East Midlands
Posted

GFS 6z ensembles show a very distinct trend to early spring like conditions through day 10 plus.

This trend has gathered pace of the last day or so, and is of course completely contrary to other guidance, but hard to ignore given the notable failure of other guidance this winter in relation to northern blocking. 

 

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K9 Apprentice

K9

Posted
  • Location: Wakefield - God's County
  • Location: Wakefield - God's County
Posted
4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Background signals are really starting to show as we go further into February on the Gfs 6z operational!

06_288_ukthickness850.png

06_300_uk2mtmp.png

06_300_mslp850.png

06_312_ukthickness850.png

06_324_uk2mtmp.png

06_324_mslp850.png

I think I'll put the unused sledge away and dust off the BBQ with those 850's and 2m temps!..just about sums this winter (or total lack of) up!!

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I have to say now, with each EPS and GEFS extended, it is really looking like this projected very cold spell in mid Feb is looking less and less likely.

Yes, if you weren't aware of the background signals and just looked at the ensembles you'd say an early spring is more likely than a big freeze (*awaits abuse*).

We need to start seeing the signs very soon.

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booferking Veteran

booferking

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Posted
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I have to say now, with each EPS and GEFS extended, it is really looking like this projected very cold spell in mid Feb is looking less and less likely.

This looks to be are best window period for proper northern blocking if we don't succeed this period then i can't see any northern blocking until March.

gfs-0-192.png

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Jackski4 Seasoned

Jackski4

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Posted

I'm completely ignoring the GFS extended, couldn't be more wrong in my opinion.. When UKMO hints at that, I'll listen.

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Cuban Zebra Enthusiast

Cuban Zebra

Posted
  • Location: Cleckheaton, W Yorks
  • Location: Cleckheaton, W Yorks
Posted
10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Background signals are really starting to show as we go further into February on the Gfs 6z operational!:shok::crazy:

06_288_ukthickness850.png

06_300_uk2mtmp.png

06_300_mslp850.png

06_312_ukthickness850.png

06_324_uk2mtmp.png

06_324_mslp850.png

ooh-matron-kenneth-williams-carry-on-bouvier-des-flandres-puppies-for-sale-uk.jpg

169993-Brace-Yourselves-Summer-Is-Coming.jpg

We’ve so many background signals etc... fail to deliver this winter. A bit of adjustment westward and we’ll be in the game!!

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, Johnp said:

Yes, if you weren't aware of the background signals and just looked at the ensembles you'd say an early spring is more likely than a big freeze (*awaits abuse*).

We need to start seeing the signs very soon.

I could make a case based on previous GEFS suites as the trough was digging to our west more with scandi heights developing but the 6z suite has trended the trough more W or NW and the eps graph is howing no real cold members, you do usually get higher uppers as a prelude to an E'ly as any high re-orientates but like you say - need to see signs soon.

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

Understand why they are being mentioned as it’s a strong signal in fairness but the ensembles have been utterly useless this winter to be frank, wouldn’t worry about it too much at This stage

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Short term we have opportunities for snow but as we head into Feb the GFS ens is clearly trending less cold

00z

20190127075822419_gefsens850London0.thumb.png.8c720a3f938018ce54f929045a08b8eb.png

06z

31E85BF1-554A-4CDA-AA60-0ED786FAF80C.png.15619c6536ca6d57bd92f52e8c0e357d.thumb.png.c5bde0e9b29a27dd724a4ecd85ea66be.png

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J10 Veteran

J10

Posted
Posted (edited)

I think people (understandably) are looking too far ahead at the moment, a lot can happen before Thursday, each individual model run will probably have a different take on it.

Tuesday looks very interesting, given the choice I would take the GFS Parallel option (looks very snowy for Wales and also for other southern areas of the UK), still not certain about the accuracy of this model at the moment.

As for FI. I saw this on my twitter feed earlier today. (source https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU)

 

image.png

Edited by J10
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Updated_Weather Seasoned

Updated_Weather

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Posted
4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Short term we have opportunities for snow but as we head into Feb the GFS ens is clearly trending less cold

00z

20190127075822419_gefsens850London0.thumb.png.8c720a3f938018ce54f929045a08b8eb.png

06z

31E85BF1-554A-4CDA-AA60-0ED786FAF80C.png.15619c6536ca6d57bd92f52e8c0e357d.thumb.png.c5bde0e9b29a27dd724a4ecd85ea66be.png

Can we just get to through this week first as there is still quite a bit to resolve - Wouldn't pay much attention to FI at this stage, plenty of changes to happen I suspect!

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted
4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Understand why they are being mentioned as it’s a strong signal in fairness but the ensembles have been utterly useless this winter to be frank, wouldn’t worry about it too much at This stage

Agreed 100% with this. They've consistently flip flopped around, they didn't pick this weekends milder blip up until rather late. 

The trend is undeniably towards less cold beyond next weekend and on this occasion I think that's probably the way we're heading given the extreme cold pouring into the USA, this will strengthen the jet and probably flatten the pattern somewhat. I suspect the GFS is over-doing it a little with the incredibly zonal pattern, though in any event "deep cold Easterlies" are absolutely not on the cards, whatever model you look at.

Could be that this is one of the SSW's that doesn't produce favourably for the UK. Despite the Met Office outlook, they've been pushing the proper cold back and back since the start of January. Fairly strong signal from the EPS to reduce the Euro troughing too.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
24 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Background signals are really starting to show as we go further into February on the Gfs 6z operational!:shok::crazy:

06_288_ukthickness850.png

06_300_uk2mtmp.png

06_300_mslp850.png

06_312_ukthickness850.png

06_324_uk2mtmp.png

06_324_mslp850.png

ooh-matron-kenneth-williams-carry-on-bouvier-des-flandres-puppies-for-sale-uk.jpg

169993-Brace-Yourselves-Summer-Is-Coming.jpg

The winter so far! image.thumb.png.a582387de259034c40f792182a600923.png 

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Scandinavian High. Experienced

Scandinavian High.

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
Posted

Are we starting to see change as we start see high pressure trying to get up to Scandinavia maybe we start with an south easterly flow then a very cold easterly we’ll see In coming days..?

A32245CC-B337-4548-8A68-A12ED42DA016.png

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Jackski4 Seasoned

Jackski4

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Posted

Isn't the GFS regarded as a pretty poor model? Why's everyone suddenly paying attention to it for its mid Feb prediction?

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

I can't show you the composite because of the shutdown but it is worth saying that a high amplitude phase 8 MJO does produce a Euro High pattern (basically a west based -NAO).

The better news is that a 1-2-3 orbit do build pressure north and east for a more easterly pattern.  

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Updated_Weather Seasoned

Updated_Weather

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Posted
Just now, summer blizzard said:

I can't show you the composite because of the shutdown but it is worth saying that a high amplitude phase 8 MJO does produce a Euro High pattern (basically a west based -NAO).

The better news is that a 1-2-3 orbit do build pressure north and east for a more easterly pattern.  

The shutdown is over, surely you can access now?

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted
Just now, Updated_Weather said:

The shutdown is over, surely you can access now?

Nope however that might be because it ended on a Friday (no point calling people back for the weekend).

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Although I want to bury my head in the sand and pretend it isn't happening, the Ecm 00z ensemble mean is trending less cold / milder beyond the week ahead..as is the GEFS 00z mean.

EDM0-240.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

Sadly that does seem to be a trend now.  Make the most of this week!

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
32 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I have to say now, with each EPS and GEFS extended, it is really looking like this projected very cold spell in mid Feb is looking less and less likely.

Last time you posted a similar theme suggesting the met would change their extended to less cold we had a massive upgrade 12 hours later. I see what your doing here clever

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)

Finally some good output from GFS beyond 10days, springs just around the corner. 

This week could realistically be the last attempt until next winter for snow for many in the south that being said I wouldn’t like to be a forecaster, so horrendously marginal conditions, will it snow at all, where will the snow line be? Give atmospheric profiles I think GFS is being too aggressive with snow accumulations.

I think for many the biggest problem this week will you ice - could be real problem Wednesday morning with all that rain freezing.

Edited by Alderc
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