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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

The ICON is far better at disrupting that second low:

icon-1-90.thumb.png.9030c523e4d87befa99d38acdc980a09.pngicon-1-96.thumb.png.e06867e8af0b2d86865e699196988a48.png

Less warming out of the UK uppers.

Above are the 06z compared to the 0z.

 

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted
1 minute ago, IDO said:

The ICON is far better at disrupting that second low:

icon-1-90.thumb.png.9030c523e4d87befa99d38acdc980a09.pngicon-1-96.thumb.png.e06867e8af0b2d86865e699196988a48.png

Less warming out of the UK uppers.

Above are the 06z compared to the 0z.

 

Wouldn`t that be due to the LP being further South though?

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

just noted that despite decent precipitation totals for my location Tuesday afternoon/evening, the ec has me down for rain and sleet. no one should be taking anything for granted on this .....prepare yourself for the worst and hope for the best! 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Trending away from significant snow in the North now, but could be quite a white out for places like Oxford, Milton Keynes and St Albans - i would be getting very excited if i lived there.

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
5 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Well the good news is if we miss the First low theres always the Second wich will be further South if the Southwards corrections continue. From our IMBY perspective impossible for the Midlands to miss both.

Missing the first low itself isn’t a huge deal. Looks like there will be a trailing weather front from that low to bring us sleet and snow anyway.

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

These low pressure systems have a habit of tracking too far South and missing the UK all together. Seems to be a trend already of the low tracking further South each run, regarding tues/wed snow. 

I have seen it pushed northwards and southward on various models - no consistent trend. Do you put a debby downer on everything?

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted
2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Wouldn`t that be due to the LP being further South though?

...all intertwined, more disruption, better angle of the second low, further south its track...

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

just noted that despite decent precipitation totals for my location Tuesday afternoon/evening, the ec has me down for rain and sleet. no one should be taking anything for granted on this .....prepare yourself for the worst and hope for the best! 

I am only about 50 miles NE of you Blue so whether that is a benefit for uppers who knows but yes to bolded.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
Just now, bluearmy said:

just noted that despite decent precipitation totals for my location Tuesday afternoon/evening, the ec has me down for rain and sleet. no one should be taking anything for granted on this .....prepare yourself for the worst and hope for the best! 

The EC does have an area of sleet in front of the cold front but nearly all get snow at least for the final couple of hours. Obviously better the further east due to timing of arrival and shorter drag of air from the south.

I'd say if people don't get at least a few hours of snow then they have been mighty unlucky. Coastal areas certainly highest risk though.

If the band reaches you at night then I suspect it will be an all snow event based on what I've seen.

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snowangel32 Rising Star

snowangel32

Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
Posted
2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Missing the first low itself isn’t a huge deal. Looks like there will be a trailing weather front from that low to bring us sleet and snow anyway.

Yh i agree and it takes any kind of marginality out of the equation for all of the UK wich would be nice. Like you said theres plenty of PPN about and we know things will crop up at short notice as well.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, kold weather said:

The EC does have an area of sleet in front of the cold front but nearly all get snow at least for the final couple of hours. Obviously better the further east due to timing of arrival and shorter drag of air from the south.

I'd say if people don't get at least a few hours of snow then they have been mighty unlucky. Coastal areas certainly highest risk though.

If the band reaches you at night then I suspect it will be an all snow event based on what I've seen.

Seems to turn to snow the further East it gets, can't see very much for the SW apart from high ground.

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Trending away from significant snow in the North now, but could be quite a white out for places like Oxford, Milton Keynes and St Albans - i would be getting very excited if i lived there.

Tuesday or Thursday? Thursday is looking like it might deliver for more in midlands north. Icon is an improvement all round I would think 

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

just noted that despite decent precipitation totals for my location Tuesday afternoon/evening, the ec has me down for rain and sleet. no one should be taking anything for granted on this .....prepare yourself for the worst and hope for the best! 

Got a feeling we could do ok in Hertfordshire Nick ? I remember pm you December 17 event , Pretty sure it was similar to this event ?? You said we might get lucky and we did , was a nice little dumping . 

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Banbury Experienced

Banbury

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Trending away from significant snow in the North now, but could be quite a white out for places like Oxford, Milton Keynes and St Albans - i would be getting very excited if i lived there.

I've had these expectations before and missed the bloody lot lol 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Tuesday or Thursday? Thursday is looking like it might deliver for more in midlands north. Icon is an improvement all round I would think 

Tuesday, Thursday too far away and if the trend south continues, there is a good chance that will be further South as well - think 6z Icon.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Seems to turn to snow the further East it gets, can't see very much for the SW apart from high ground.

I think that is as much to do with when the front arrives. It should no surprise that the band turns from mixed and back edge snow to a band of just snow between 4-6pm on the latest ICON.

Could do with a delay. As it is the models gave slightly slowed it down from yesterday.

Icon looks very similar to 09z EXM in terms of Thursday snow distribution. Wales and W.Midlands still perefered BUT it quickly runs out of gas north of there.

 

Edited by kold weather
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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

just noted that despite decent precipitation totals for my location Tuesday afternoon/evening, the ec has me down for rain and sleet. no one should be taking anything for granted on this .....prepare yourself for the worst and hope for the best! 

1

Sounds like typical Brexit type weather Tuesday or is that just a coincidence, aye Mrs May? As for those saying these charts aren't worth getting excited about, down South, these events sure are, and the marginal ones bring the biggest surprises and dumps of snow IMHO. I need the dream charts to be showing it snowing tomorrow as well, before caution can be thrown to the wind, as well I reckon.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Although I want to bury my head in the sand and pretend it isn't happening, the Ecm 00z ensemble mean is trending less cold / milder beyond the week ahead..as is the GEFS 00z mean.

EDM0-240.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, seabreeze86 said:

How is the mjo looking nick still going into phase 7?,  I've lost my link to the website 

We haven’t had today’s update yet but yesterday showed increased speed of the MJO into phase 7.

On iPad so can’t unfortunately link or still haven’t worked out how to ! but if you just type in NCEP MJO into your search you should be able to find it.

Edited by nick sussex
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Sky Full Accomplished

Sky Full

Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
Posted

Snowfall is possible just about anywhere next week according to our own excellent NETWEATHER Precipitation Type charts.  Just look at these very promising 3 hourly images for Tuesday for example:

 image.thumb.png.97b3b90703158d18339f33b7a22231c5.png  image.thumb.png.5d07adb55c91ce003bf68c6383eb2504.png

 image.thumb.png.a287b44f1e6aa58062143b419c9090a0.png  image.thumb.png.074a3709d6cca5ef8eec694e10d3ff96.png

 image.thumb.png.1433a15373ef07fd8e6eb1605525ae75.png

The theme continues on Wednesday and Thursday to a lesser extent.  See you outside by the lamppost?  (usual disclaimers apply - don't expect snow until you see it through the window.....)

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Shelton Bates Newbie

Shelton Bates

Posted
  • Location: Storrington 131ft ASL
  • Location: Storrington 131ft ASL
Posted
18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Trending away from significant snow in the North now, but could be quite a white out for places like Oxford, Milton Keynes and St Albans - i would be getting very excited if i lived there.

How is Sussex looking?

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

Looking beyond the snowfall prospects this week and overall im disappointed with the overall trend from the model output.

I know a large landmass can see quick change in temps but im disappointed with the general lack of cold across much of Europe being predicted in the medium range. Here are a few GEFS ensembles across Europe.

t850Berlin.pngt850Oslo.pngt850Reyjavic.png

Hoping to see a change because otherwise the delay of the type of cold spell we are all hoping for will be until Mid Feb!

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