Cold hunt - models and chat

[Drifter]

8 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ecm gone south for thursday so big upgrade of you want the cold to linger!!and when the ukmo changes that significantly you do kinds lose all credibility from the model cos that was just ridiculous!!i also mentioned last night how much of an outlier was churning out a run like that!!gfs maybe going slightly south aswell!!and i know steve posted about the mean at 72 hours from ecm but surely we should be  following the op!!

Not really, as the cold gets cut off by 192 anyway.

[Frosty.]

Looking a bit further ahead, next weekend still looks cold / very cold according to the GEFS 00z mean!

[chris78]

Looks like the ecm mean is a correction north.

[Stuie]

Arpege misses the UK totally on Tuesday and the NMM only just catches the SE. Far from a done deal.

 

[SMU]

In terms of Tuesday I believe its fairly straight forward in terms of whats being levied off here-

We will have 2 areas of energy, one in the form of a trough spreading SE out of Ireland across the day -

One ( the channel low ) moving to the south of the UK -

The modes are just trying to work out whether the stream of energy pushing the trough south is strong enough to distort the track of the low, or vice versa that northern stream is weaker & the low isnt inpacted -

Net fallout is excluding any imby posting is that the former scenario will tend to provide a more uniform level of PPN/Snow across Southern England late Tuesday ( right up into the Midlands ) - where as the latter which is the ECM mean provides less across the piste, but concentrates the snow into the SE corner-

Either way its wintry - with a bit of resolution still to be finalised-

Tomorrow 12z will be the first suite where we can narrow the margins down to sub 100 miles - as it stands the cone is about 2-300....

S

[tinybill]

should  make things  interesting  down in the south east   if the gfs  is  right !!

[bluearmy]

Two very complex scenarios to play out this week with massive ramifications for our islands unprepared infrastructure. 

Tuesday into Wednesday on the channel runner is so much more than one system. The fax reveals a running frontal wave above the system - that means the system can be further south than looks ideal and it’s not a disaster ....infact it could be better as below the wave will likely be too warm for snow. In addition there is a cold front headed nw/se across England and Wales at the same time. 

thursday ......well Ukmo goes the way of the other modelling as expected and the other modelled heads towards Ukmo from yesterday  (in different degrees). You couldn’t make it up! Best wait for tonight’s 00z runs on that one although as mused by many over the past few days, the system won’t deepen as much so will slide a bit more against the upper trough

as for the extended period on the ens ......... not going there -  some quite ‘varying stuff’ showing up around the broad expected evolution. 

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

In terms of Tuesday I believe its fairly straight forward in terms of whats being levied off here-

We will have 2 areas of energy, one in the form of a trough spreading SE out of Ireland across the day -

One ( the channel low ) moving to the south of the UK -

The modes are just trying to work out whether the stream of energy pushing the trough south is strong enough to distort the track of the low, or vice versa that northern stream is weaker & the low isnt inpacted -

Net fallout is excluding any imby posting is that the former scenario will tend to provide a more uniform level of PPN/Snow across Southern England late Tuesday ( right up into the Midlands ) - where as the latter which is the ECM mean provides less across the piste, but concentrates the snow into the SE corner-

Either way its wintry - with a bit of resolution still to be finalised-

Tomorrow 12z will be the first suite where we can narrow the margins down to sub 100 miles - as it stands the cone is about 2-300....

S

Steve, we are talking about a potential dumping, if only it was straight forward for the UK...

[NO LONGER POSTING]

5 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Arpege misses the UK totally on Tuesday and the NMM only just catches the SE. Far from a done deal.

 

And the NMM sucks at PPN it is wrong nearly every time 

Edited January 27, 2019 by Surrey

[snowangel32]

I think the Channel low will end up even further South if you look at past history I think maybe just clipping Kent. The Second low on Thursday I think will bring Disruptive Snow to the South and maybe the Midlands. But also lots of Snow showers about so no one really misses out. P.S just text my mate in Yeovil Somerset to say you might see snow this week.

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

And the NMM sucks at PPN it is wrong nearly every time 

Unfortunately there are very few `other` models which stretch to Tuesday at the mo, Hirlam no...

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

And the NMM sucks at PPN it is wrong nearly every time 

Like alot of high resolution models their forte tends to be within 24hrs, at that stage they become super useful. Before that, not so much...

Stick with the global models for now as they are more or less in total agreement about the lie of land.

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

I think the Channel low will end up even further South if you look at past history I think maybe just clipping Kent. The Second low on Thursday I think will bring Disruptive Snow to the South and maybe the Midlands. But also lots of Snow showers about so no one really misses out. P.S just text my mate in Yeovil Somerset to say you might see snow this week.

Well that’s jinxed it

[That ECM]

Icon, slightly further south. And heading into France 

Edited January 27, 2019 by That ECM

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, tinybill said:

will country  file to night  be  any help  to me the  bbc seem to be siting  on the fence  not saying to much   just in-case  their  cause panic!

You can bet it will be a vague forecast with all possibilities on the table. WhIch to be fair is not too wide of the mark.

Edited January 27, 2019 by Djdazzle

[ANYWEATHER]

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

In terms of Tuesday I believe its fairly straight forward in terms of whats being levied off here-

We will have 2 areas of energy, one in the form of a trough spreading SE out of Ireland across the day -

One ( the channel low ) moving to the south of the UK -

The modes are just trying to work out whether the stream of energy pushing the trough south is strong enough to distort the track of the low, or vice versa that northern stream is weaker & the low isnt inpacted -

Net fallout is excluding any imby posting is that the former scenario will tend to provide a more uniform level of PPN/Snow across Southern England late Tuesday ( right up into the Midlands ) - where as the latter which is the ECM mean provides less across the piste, but concentrates the snow into the SE corner-

Either way its wintry - with a bit of resolution still to be finalised-

Tomorrow 12z will be the first suite where we can narrow the margins down to sub 100 miles - as it stands the cone is about 2-300....

S

To be honest Steve given the high level of Shannon entropy from the models it's a forecasters nightmare.....

[IDO]

The ICON as expected moves the first low further south, unfortunately the models are prone to this:

0z06z>>

Little hope of anything from the low IMO but the cold front looks like giving snow to many:

Edited January 27, 2019 by IDO

[snowangel32]

8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Well that’s jinxed it

Got to be done Matt lol. They are excited at the chance to see a flake South of the M4. Although we havent had enough to fill an Ice cream van lol. Will you be ranting again this Tuesday lol. My favourite time of the year lol.

Edited January 27, 2019 by snowangel32

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, snowangel32 said:

Go to be done Matt lol. They are excited at the chance to see a flake South of the M4. Although we havent had enough to fill an Ice cream van lol. Will you be ranting again this Tuesday lol. My favourite time of the year lol.

Most likely. Or otherwise, there’s always Thursday 

[SMU]

And another model slips over to the UKMO solution under the radar - ( west based weaker low pressure )

00z 84 v 06z 78

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, IDO said:

The ICON as expected moves the first low further south, unfortunately the models are prone to this:

0z06z>>

Little hope of anything from the low IMO but the cold front looks like giving snow to many:

As others have said, a further south low would kill any marginality which isn't a bad thing either. Less snow but less risk. Still would be good enough for 5-8cms I'd say.

Plus I'm still not convinced it will be anywhere near that far south. I think broadly close to channel.

[snowangel32]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Most likely. Or otherwise, there’s always Thursday 

Well the good news is if we miss the First low theres always the Second wich will be further South if the Southwards corrections continue. From our IMBY perspective impossible for the Midlands to miss both.

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

And another model slips over to the UKMO solution under the radar - ( west based weaker low pressure )

00z 84 v 06z 78

Yes I noticed that when little later oking at the precip loops that it looked further west. 

Still time for change but maybe the I'll really did find that nut yesterday? Also fair play to GFS para as well if that comes off, it's first great call!

[snowangel32]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

As others have said, a further south low would kill any marginality which isn't a bad thing either. Less snow but less risk. Still would be good enough for 5-8cms I'd say.

Plus I'm still not convinced it will be anywhere near that far south. I think broadly close to channel.

I don't know Kold I feel that low will be in Africa by Tuesday lol. But countless times I rember people getting excited for a true storm only for it to end up in France.

[SLEETY]

These low pressure systems have a habit of tracking too far South and missing the UK all together. Seems to be a trend already of the low tracking further South each run, regarding tues/wed snow. 

Edited January 27, 2019 by SLEETY