Cold hunt - models and chat

[KTtom]

My focus over the last few runs for the mid to longer term is the arctic high and the extremely cold uppers to the far north east...IF we are to get a Very Cold spell then I would imagine this is where it may come from....Last few runs has it inching south and westwards..

[SMU]

ECM now pretty much moved 100% to yesterdays UKMO

- no deep bowling ball low, just a system that skirts the SW with a small frontal push over England - then cold winds again behind-

Channel low modelled Further south on the 00zs

[SLEETY]

Beast from the east lurking at the latter frames of ECM? Extremely cold air building  towards the North East.Is this what the Met are thinking about when they mention very cold air possibly arriving in Febuary.

[swfc]

Bit of a no man's land on EC at 216 hrs.nice area of heights to the north and as mentioned arctic high lurking also.hopeing for an uptick in the mo today and something to set up next week ie very wintry!!

[KTtom]

To add to my post above...850's ecm day 10...the ice bomb is inching further south....

[The Beast From The East]

ECM looking good for the outlook,  not to sure about the GFS

Jokes aside I'm happy with how things are looking so far... ❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

[SMU]

UKMO 72 PPN is slower than yesterday

midnight weds

[That ECM]

14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 72 PPN is slower than yesterday

midnight weds

If it played out like that then there maybe a few more in the game.  Wind direction being important and intensity of precipitation  midnight Tuesday? Not Wednesday.

Edited January 27, 2019 by That ECM

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 72 PPN is slower than yesterday

midnight weds

Looks a very unstable airstream Steve, plenty of people seeing snow there..

[Nick F]

6 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Beast from the east lurking at the latter frames of ECM? Extremely cold air building  towards the North East.Is this what the Met are thinking about when they mention very cold air possibly arriving in Febuary.

We’ve been chasing the BFTE for what seems like all winter, but to be honest we are looking as far away from one as we’ve been all winter as the ensembles spreads and means, particularly EPS, have indicating it turning milder after next weekend as pressure builds across SW Europe while low pressure moves in close to the west. We may have to wait until mid-February until the next chance of easterlies, perhaps when we start seeing the Canadian TPV imprint on the Atlantic weaken to allow a -NAO and more favourable MJO forcing to work on the upper patterns.

Still, looking cold throughout the coming week, with risks of some organised snow events, Tuesday across the south then Thurs/Fri the Midlands and N Wales northwards.

[Guest]

Even with decent positioning of the lows this week I’m not convinced that there’s enough cold entangled in these systems to bring snow down the south. Unless you live on the south coast you’ll never understand how difficult it is to get snow to fall let alone lay - 5yrs plus is not uncommon. These lows need to follow a specific path for anything white, we don’t want the warm sectors pushing inland and need a the systems to stall really somewhat in the channel to ensure a flow slightly north of east. 

[geordiekev]

Minus 5 850s doing it here atm and 2 degrees, so no need for ultra cold in these lows forecast this week.

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Even with decent positioning of the lows this week I’m not convinced that there’s enough cold entangled in these systems to bring snow down the south. Unless you live on the south coast you’ll never understand how difficult it is to get snow to fall let alone lay - 5yrs plus is not uncommon. These lows need to follow a specific path for anything white, we don’t want the warm sectors pushing inland and need a the systems to stall really somewhat in the channel to ensure a flow slightly north of east. 

We benefit in other ways because of where we live. I’m trying to work out how far inland I will need to drive on Wednesday with my daughter and our sledge

[nick sussex]

It’s like musical chairs !

The UKMO jumps off and the ECM jumps on!

The latter is by far the best of the big 3 re the low later in the week. The Channel low is playing out in typical dramatic fashion with no agreement yet. Looking at the fax chart is even more complicated .

Even though the low is centred sw of Paris a front is thrown ne ahead of it which lies close to the se towards Kent .

 

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

We benefit in other ways because of where we live. I’m trying to work out how far inland I will need to drive on Wednesday with my daughter and our sledge

I feel like you could get snow if you're lucky but if may be very marginal for the south coast. Thankfully here in Essex I'm just about north of the m4 albeit still on a coastline... It's going to go right down to the wire 

[SLEETY]

Winds have to stay off shore if you live on the South Coast,any  sudden onshore flow and any snow will quickly turn to rain and melt fast ,trust me i’ve seen that happen countless times before

Unless the flow is from a bitter continent ,which keeps the air dry,like in jan2013 but it isn’t this week.

Edited January 27, 2019 by SLEETY

[Weather-history]

57 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its a huge upgrade widely!!

Million miles better than UKMET - which has been flapping around like Rod and emu !!

Its a downgrade for northern England in terms of snow from that low later in the week though. Seen the eCM preciptation charts. Swings and roundabouts, what you gain with one hand, you could lose out on somehing else with the other.  That's the problem with these scenarios, You want to stay in the cold air for longer but if you want the snow, you have to roll the dice and take the risk at the end of being south of the front. 

 

 

Edited January 27, 2019 by Weather-history

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

28 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 72 PPN is slower than yesterday

midnight weds

“It could be youuuu...”

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, That ECM said:

We benefit in other ways because of where we live. I’m trying to work out how far inland I will need to drive on Wednesday with my daughter and our sledge

Oh absolutely, summer is amazing! While parts up north can struggling in double figures it can be 25c down here. But it’s a hard old slog getting the white stuff down here. Given uncertainties I think both low will nowcasting situations for almost all involved along their path.

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Its a downgrade for northern England in terms of snow from that low later in the week though. Seen the eCM preciptation charts. Swings and roundabouts, what you gain with one hand, you could lose out on somehing else with the other.  That's the problem with these scenarios, You want to stay in the cold air for longer but if you want the snow, you have to roll the dice and take the risk at the end of being south of the front. 

 

 

Aye, yes i have looked at them Kevin, think we should see some snow showers tues- thur though in our region..

TBH wrt the front, there will be the dreaded rain shadow for us anyway.

Edited January 27, 2019 by northwestsnow

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Winds have to stay off shore if you live on the South Coast,any  sudden onshore flow and any snow will quickly turn to rain and melt fast ,trust me i’ve seen that happen countless times before

Yes not the depth of cold there to compensate for that sea modification . So it’s possible precip will start as rain on the coast before the low clears further east . I think coastal areas will need that switch round in the wind towards a ne n after it’s headed further east .

Unfortunately there’s no agreement on the low , some shorter range don’t even develop it at all.

 

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Winds have to stay off shore if you live on the South Coast,any  sudden onshore flow and any snow will quickly turn to rain and melt fast ,trust me i’ve seen that happen countless times before

Unless the flow is from a bitter continent ,which keeps the air dry,like in jan2013 but it isn’t this week.

Even last march with -14c uppers in place  the warm sector nudged in bring a huge temp increase aloft and gave rain within a couple hours of the snow starting. Only the stubbornly cold boundary layer saved us then, if you can call it that and turned it to freezing rain so wouldn’t be surprised to see all rain this week. 

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Even last march with -14c uppers in place  the warm sector nudged in bring a huge temp increase aloft and gave rain within a couple hours of the snow starting. Only the stubbornly cold boundary layer saved us then, if you can call it that and turned it to freezing rain so wouldn’t be surprised to see all rain this week. 

Best discuss this in the regional. Some places are going to get some snow and good luck to them

[Nick F]

T+72 fax for 00z Weds shows that although the low is quite a way south over N France, fronts associated with cold air moving in behind the low from the NW and less cold air wrapping around the lows northern flank still give decent snow potential for southern England. Also winds are normally lighter on the northern flank of lows, so that will aid in less mixing out too.

Not going comment in too much detail wrt Thursday’s low as still some differences with how far north the snow / rain boundary will move, but 00z EC look furthest south looking at precipitation and -5C 850s line

[northwestsnow]

mean has the low quite a bit further north at 72..

Edited January 27, 2019 by northwestsnow