Cold hunt - models and chat

[snowray]

GfS 18z mean looking a lot better than the op, I think that we still have a long way to go before we see any agreement for next week. Op will be one of the milder members for the south at least.

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Because Exeter have dirtched it on their fax (we are talking day 5 Steve)

incidentally the Ukmo at day 5/6 has a 13% eps cluster 

I think the depth is slightly to low at 144 but essentially the later models like the GFS(p)/ICON  are following that 'westward' shift -

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure a 13% cluster can be considered a complete outlier.

Fair point ..... I used the phrase dodgy originally but that was misconstrued so I though outlier would be a reasonable description considering Exeter so rarely modify away from their model at day 5.

[A.J]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes that is evidence of a POSSIBLE significant snow event on the graphics for Northern Ireland, W Scotland, NW England and parts of the Midlands, plus from what i remember of the forecast, that rain could Easily edge into SE England and turn to snow, If your definition of a significant snow event is 1ft of level snow then yes you are right, to me, around 3 inches is a significant fall and that could Easily happen in any of the places i have mentioned.

Darn Sarf here, 3 flakes in the wind is classed as a 'significant event'......lol

[CSC]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes that is evidence of a POSSIBLE significant snow event on the graphics for Northern Ireland, W Scotland, NW England and parts of the Midlands, plus from what i remember of the forecast, that rain could Easily edge into SE England and turn to snow, If your definition of a significant snow event is 1ft of level snow then yes you are right, to me, around 3 inches is a significant fall and that could Easily happen in any of the places i have mentioned.

Dear oh dear this is getting stupidly petty now. 

Please state where I said there was no snow event possible? If you look at my posts you will see I said I think there will be one. I have studied meteorology for quite some time and this is my interpretation.  I simply stated that the BBC DID NOT MENTION any possibility of widespread snow and yes, you can name every part of UK but the BBC did not mention heavy snow for ANY of these areas.

My definition of a significant snow event is anything of any significance..  i.e.snow that causes disruption. Its quite self explanatory. When the BBC don't mention heavy snow that logically suggests there won't be one in their view. Its a bit of common sense. 

Over and out this is tiring me I was only trying to make a point you, along with many others are respected weather commentators but I think there was a misunderstanding.

Hope everything has been clarified and apologies again.

Onwards and upwards tomorrow!

[shaky]

I think that low on thursday will be moved further south and west tomorrow morning runs!!the trends are there even on the means!!

[inghams85]

9 minutes ago, Mac_SE said:

Think you need to look up the definition of defensive and confrontational. As well as re-reading your original post. 

Mate. Seriously. Your the only person who has picked up my post as being some slant to South Eastern posters? You "defended" South Eastern posters after I stuck up for those posts as being human nature and you "confronted" me on the tone of the post when again I stuck up for them reasons. What do you not understand? I'm not replying anymore because it's beyond childish and rediculous. Take a breather and chill your beans.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

I think the depth is slightly to low at 144 but essentially the later models like the GFS(p)/ICON  are following that 'westward' shift -

I’m not saying it is or it isn’t - just interpreting the fact that it was ditched in favour of th ec op at day 5 

[Mike Poole]

Just before my iPad (and indeed brain) runs out of juice, FV3 T150

And I wouldn't be prepared to speculate beyond T144 at the moment.  Let's see what tomorrow's runs bring. Night all .

Edited January 26, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Drifter]

P9 going for two monster channel lows, not even including Tuesday's potential.

[snowray]

Seriously, FI is D5, in fact sooner because the 18z is an outlier compared to the other models by D3!

[Lauren]

Enough with the north/south divide type arguments please.

[Wilxy]

4 minutes ago, Drifter said:

P9 going for two monster channel lows, not even including Tuesday's potential.

P9 is just ridiculous!  

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

Seriously, FI is D5, in fact sooner because the 18z is an outlier compared to the other models by D3!

Being at the top of the pack doesn't mean it's an outlier. An outlier is something that stands at a certain deviation away from the cluster of all other members

[Tim Bland]

18z JMA re Tuesdays low - Consistent with earlier run 

[kumquat]

Pretty happy with the output up to day 5. Cold filtering south and potentially* exciting runners coming through. Regardless of region, some interesting model and weather watching coming up - starting tonight.

[Catacol]

33 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Tuesday is NOT a classic channel low imho. For a "classic", ideally, there needs to be entrenched cold over a few days before, a v cold continent, a v cold UK, with easterly or NE winds. And as the Low approaches it has nowhere to go but run along the Channel as the HP to its East/NE wont budge.

A number of these factors are not present today or forecast to be, over next 2 days.

To add weight to my view (by all means challenge me) forecast temps for Amsterdam, Brussels and Paris are between 4-6c. Not really cold. So any Easterly or SE from that Low wont really have a v cold source.

Yes. Tuesday looks marginal thanks to the failure of the trough to establish enough of an easterly into NW Europe. We need upgrades on what is being shown for Tuesday. Thursday? Pointless analysing really until we see what Tuesday brings...

[karlos1983]

19 minutes ago, CSC said:

Have you watched the 10 O'Clock news?

BBC have said 'showers in places' but nothing note of any significance. Some models seem to be going for dumping whilst others seem to go for 'showers' or some cases nothing at all. ECM puts South East in a great position whilst GFS does not.

Here is the GFS

 

Here is there BBC. Evident to me of a non significant snow event..

Of course everything depends on the position of the Low but I was simply stating that I think the South East will be in the favourable spot this time around and that the BBC are wrong (not for the first time) about the position of the low and therefore where snow falls.

Here you can see GFS (P) is also entirely different,

Icon heavy snow too for much of Kent and Sussex.

Most know that the BBC app updates are not always in reflection to current information as they are automated much like many apps. They update at periodic intervals and sometimes, at times like these, they do not update as frequently. This means that if the app is showing snow now, it may not be currently forecasted snow for the period if it hasn't updated so a link to the website at this moment does not show their current forecast.

This what I meant for BBC not going for a significant snow event. I hope everything has clarified!

 

 

Well very interesting, but here’s some factual information:

“those BBC graphics are showing EC12z deterministic and yes, it really has v little snow, hence the forecast *as it stands*?? 

Also bbc app updates using actual intervention at nearer lead times; rest is primarily EC based BUT represents ensemble blend rather than pure deterministic. It also uses algorithm for temps to be site specific based on historic climatology in specific set-ups. Temps have proved more accurate versus UKMO 'best data' blend used before.”

[snowray]

34 minutes ago, Drifter said:

P9 going for two monster channel lows, not even including Tuesday's potential.

A bit OTT that one, but some sort of 2nd channel low for Thursday is certainly still possible.

Edited January 26, 2019 by snowray

[kold weather]

It won't have a very cold source and so the snowfall total so may not be optimised but then again this looks quite an active system so evaporative cooling should be fine.

These snow events like this tend to get upgraded in terms of amounts as we go. I think GFSP is a touch south of where I expect but close enough for sure. Nothing too outrageous unless things go to the extreme end.

[Tim Bland]

CFS still looking good for Feb 

[Bristawl Si]

2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yes. Tuesday looks marginal thanks to the failure of the trough to establish enough of an easterly into NW Europe. We need upgrades on what is being shown for Tuesday. Thursday? Pointless analysing really until we see what Tuesday brings...

I'm not a poster on here who is very technical and knowledgeable like yourself and others, so my limited posts tend to tap into life/weather experience. 

One of my themes since Xmas has been the UK 'living off the scraps' (so to speak) - this view hasnt changed, even with more favourable chart output appearing over last couple of days. Looking at charts and tapping into Meto view i think more disruptive synoptics for UK will actually happen mid-Feb. It's an opinion, that's all.

[kumquat]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

CFS still looking good for Feb 

Cold Fracking Shenanigans

[snowray]

10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Being at the top of the pack doesn't mean it's an outlier. An outlier is something that stands at a certain deviation away from the cluster of all other members

No not an outlier there of course, what I meant was that the GFS 18z could be an outlier very early on as compared to the UKMO and ECM 12z runs and ICON 18z in respect of Tuesdays low if you know what I mean, I worded that badly. It just seems to me as if it is playing catch up with the other models including the Para, could be wrong of course. By D5 big spread there so looks like anything is still possible.

 

 

[Stonethecrows]

45 minutes ago, DanBaynes said:

Welsh population 3.1m

Yorkshire And The Humber population 5.4m 

Population of London (inside the M25) 8.1m 

Simple fact that it effects a lot more people that's why it's covered more 

 

No simple fact is you're wrong but entitled to your opinion. As am I.