Cold hunt - models and chat

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, CSC said:

Hey dude, apologies! Very tired haha and trying to keep with this half asleep!

I mean, rather not for the extended, but for snow on Tuesday night into Wednesday. 

Apologies! 

It’s only really gfs 18z which is notably different ......

[inghams85]

9 minutes ago, Mac_SE said:

Not defensive at all. And yes, I did read that. But your comment implies we were somehow skewing the models simply because of our location, which is not the case. The models have consistently shown a channel low giving widespread snow to the south. And people have merely commented accordingly.

I've merely added a forecast for the North as nothing as been added for other areas. Snow has also consistently been modelled for other areas of the country and for newbies I'm making this point. I spoke about human nature explaining I know the reason why. Don't be confrontational were all adults...

[Mike Poole]

Just now, saintkip said:

Looks perfect for me in North Hampshire

 

I wouldn't get your hopes up, last time this was on the table, only Jersey and Guernsey  feasted.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, CSC said:

BBC are also backing a complete no snow event. Not like I trust the BBC with anything..

Meteogroup are awful.

Have you seen a Meto forecast ?  It’s purely the raw dats and the Ukmo is hardly a generous model with its data ! 

[shaky]

Gfs para looks more slidey at 96 hours!!!

[saintkip]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

I wouldn't get your hopes up, last time this was on the table, only Jersey and Guernsey  feasted.

Remember it well, palm trees buried in snow and nothing here

[Hammer]

GFSP further South with low for same time frame on 18z. Personally would like it further North but alas it may not.

[Bristawl Si]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

The thing that worries me about this system was touched upon a few pages back and thats onshore flow as the LP Advances from west to east or whatever track it takes. Usually in Channel Low Set-Ups of the Past and the real ones of ficton like Man With Beard just said about we have entrenched cold over the Uk and a huge Scandi Block to the East, the Dp's are cold enough on the Continent to advect into the Uk from France and the Low Countries to keep it less than marginal. This Set-Up worries me in that respect hugely, as others have said with elevation across the Downs, Chilterns, Salisbury Plain etc it should not be a problem but I can see this being a rain to snow/slush event for low lying areas.

Agreed.

Tuesday is NOT a classic channel low imho. For a "classic", ideally, there needs to be entrenched cold over a few days before, a v cold continent, a v cold UK, with easterly or NE winds. And as the Low approaches it has nowhere to go but run along the Channel as the HP to its East/NE wont budge.

A number of these factors are not present today or forecast to be, over next 2 days.

To add weight to my view (by all means challenge me) forecast temps for Amsterdam, Brussels and Paris are between 4-6c. Not really cold. So any Easterly or SE from that Low wont really have a v cold source.

Edited January 26, 2019 by Bristle boy

[Mac_SE]

7 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:

It's not just on here but the beeb, met office, tabloids and the like always make a big deal of it if there is snow down south. Six inches in Wales or Yorkshire for example would not get a mention on the national news but one inch in london would be a third of that evenings bulletin. I suppose maybe they think they deserve snow seen as they often don't see as much.

It's the capital. It's bound to make news. Having said that, the news always report on notable snow events around the country. And come on, what do you expect when there's a channel low forecast?

[Tim Bland]

Re Tuesday’s low GFSp a bit shallower but still decent snow totals 

[DanBaynes]

2 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:

It's not just on here but the beeb, met office, tabloids and the like always make a big deal of it if there is snow down south. Six inches in Wales or Yorkshire for example would not get a mention on the national news but one inch in london would be a third of that evenings bulletin. I suppose maybe they think they deserve snow seen as they often don't see as 

Welsh population 3.1m

Yorkshire And The Humber population 5.4m 

Population of London (inside the M25) 8.1m 

Simple fact that it effects a lot more people that's why it's covered more 

 

[Banbury]

6 minutes ago, CSC said:

BBC are also backing a complete no snow event. Not like I trust the BBC with anything..

Meteogroup are awful.

No they aren't - anyway wrong thread 

[johnwirral]

9 minutes ago, CSC said:

BBC are also backing a complete no snow event. Not like I trust the BBC with anything..

Meteogroup are awful.

There's snow for Scotland, NW England and Wales, if you mean your region then why not say so?

Edited January 26, 2019 by johnwirral

[Mac_SE]

6 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

I've merely added a forecast for the North as nothing as been added for other areas. Snow has also consistently been modelled for other areas of the country and for newbies I'm making this point. I spoke about human nature explaining I know the reason why. Don't be confrontational were all adults...

Confrontational? Not so. Am merely balancing out your comment as to why there's been so many SE posters in here.

[Snow Queen one]

I may be wrong but if the temps higher up are cold and if the ppn is heavy enough then it should mix out the warm air.  I watched the meto forecast today and they stressed how uncertain they are for the low.  And even said it had not formed.  So we can all speculate about what will happen but can never be sure

Edited January 26, 2019 by Snow Queen one

[SMU]

Not sure why we are saying the UKMOs an outlier - the 18z GFSp is pretty much a carbon copy at 96!

[Banbury]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Re Tuesday’s low GFSp a bit shallower but still decent snow totals 

I have to disagree they are CM totals 

[CSC]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

For where are they backing a no snow event? - you need to be more specific.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ol3

Have you watched the 10 O'Clock news?

BBC have said 'showers in places' but nothing note of any significance. Some models seem to be going for dumping whilst others seem to go for 'showers' or some cases nothing at all. ECM puts South East in a great position whilst GFS does not.

Here is the GFS

 

Here is there BBC. Evident to me of a non significant snow event..

Of course everything depends on the position of the Low but I was simply stating that I think the South East will be in the favourable spot this time around and that the BBC are wrong (not for the first time) about the position of the low and therefore where snow falls.

Here you can see GFS (P) is also entirely different,

Icon heavy snow too for much of Kent and Sussex.

Most know that the BBC app updates are not always in reflection to current information as they are automated much like many apps. They update at periodic intervals and sometimes, at times like these, they do not update as frequently. This means that if the app is showing snow now, it may not be currently forecasted snow for the period if it hasn't updated so a link to the website at this moment does not show their current forecast.

This what I meant for BBC not going for a significant snow event. I hope everything has clarified!

 

 

[johnwirral]

1 minute ago, CSC said:

Have you watched the 10 O'Clock news?

BBC have said 'showers in places' but nothing note of any significance. Some models seem to be going for dumping whilst others seem to go for 'showers' or some cases nothing at all. ECM puts South East in a great position whilst GFS does not.

Here is the GFS

 

Here is there BBC. Evident to me of a non significant snow event..

Of course everything depends on the position of the Low but I was simply stating that I think the South East will be in the favourable spot this time around and that the BBC are wrong (not for the first time) about the position of the low and therefore where snow falls.

Here you can see GFS (P) is also entirely different,

Icon heavy snow too for much of Kent and Sussex.

Most know that the BBC app updates are not always in reflection to current information as they are automated much like many apps. They update at periodic intervals and sometimes, at times like these, they do not update as frequently. This means that if the app is showing snow now, it may not be currently forecasted snow for the period if it hasn't updated so a link to the website at this moment does not show their current forecast.

This what I meant for BBC not going for a significant snow event. I hope everything has clarified!

 

 

You said a complete no snow event, thanks for the clarification

[CSC]

Just now, johnwirral said:

You said a complete no snow event, thanks for the clarification

Apologies. I am very tired after a tough week. 

I meant no snow event as in an event of significant snow. Snow showers in my opinion is a complete no snow 'event' as its not significant. 

Apologies again. It is clear I need sleep! 

[tvh3382]

3 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

Any chart may or may not verify. I take all snow charts with a pinch of salt, but the point is that any member can post any model related chart, so let’s move on.

Hard to get snow and you want to put a pinch of salt on it.  Sorry, couldn’t resist!!

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Not sure why we are saying the UKMOs an outlier - the 18z GFSp is pretty much a carbon copy at 96!

Because Exeter have dirtched it on their fax (we are talking day 5 Steve)

incidentally the Ukmo at day 5/6 has a 13% eps cluster 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, CSC said:

Have you watched the 10 O'Clock news?

B

 

Here is there BBC. Evident to me of a non significant snow event..

O

Yes that is evidence of a POSSIBLE significant snow event on the graphics for Northern Ireland, W Scotland, NW England and parts of the Midlands, plus from what i remember of the forecast, that rain could Easily edge into SE England and turn to snow, If your definition of a significant snow event is 1ft of level snow then yes you are right, to me, around 3 inches is a significant fall and that could Easily happen in any of the places i have mentioned.

[Kentspur]

6 minutes ago, DanBaynes said:

Welsh population 3.1m

Yorkshire And The Humber population 5.4m 

Population of London (inside the M25) 8.1m 

Simple fact that it effects a lot more people that's why it's covered more 

 

As I got shot down for saying before the vast majority of the population of the UK and Ireland live NW England South/Southeastwards hence why these regions are mentioned more and poor old N.I and Scotland etc rarely get a mention. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Because Exeter have dirtched it on their fax (we are talking day 5 Steve)

incidentally the Ukmo at day 5/6 has a 13% eps cluster 

Not sure a 13% cluster can be considered a complete outlier.