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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

That bad or good for the london area?

It’s nothing to do with anywhere in particular 

I I’m just commenting on the models rather than ‘will it snow in my back garden’. Ukmo 12z is clearly considered an outlier 

btw, another slidergate in gfs fi .........

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
13 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

 

Anyway back in the real world gFS 18z in fi looks better with weakened PV ete and better ridging.

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snowbob Seasoned

snowbob

Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Is there any need for that?

No and I apologise 

wasnt aimed at you specifically 

just get fed up with bbc forecasts against latest models

Edited by snowbob
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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

It’s nothing to do with anywhere in particular 

I I’m just commenting on the models rather than ‘will it snow in my back garden’. Ukmo 12z is clearly considered an outlier 

btw, another slidergate in gfs fi .........

Lol.dont set them off again BA fgs it's been bad enough with this low saga!!!

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WelfordRd Enthusiast

WelfordRd

Posted
  • Location: Hinckley
  • Location: Hinckley
Posted
6 minutes ago, Cymro said:

I fully agree with Inghams85 reading the last 20+ pages of this thread as a Welshman I thought I was in the South East Regional....let us have less imbyism and more of a Uk wide view? I mean Scotland is cold and snowy from this night onwards, Wales has seen a lot of snow last week and more looks likely this week, Midlands North and Wales tapping in on snow showers from tomorrow onwards...but reading this thread you’d think the UK stops north of the M4! 

Well said!

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)

Here comes round 3 of IMBY toys out the pram petty arguments!!!

image.thumb.png.8ccf1c167d0d28fbd253853e0257d93e.png

 

EDIT : beaten to it by BA but more importantly could lead to proper Northern blocking.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted (edited)

Low deepening a touch quicker on the GFSP. May track a touch further north.

Edit: Of course, it ends up a touch further south after I posted that. D'oh!

Edited by MattStoke
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Mac_SE Contributor

Mac_SE

Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London
Posted
5 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

Did you even read my line about it being human nature? I guess not as your on the defensive 

Not defensive at all. And yes, I did read that. But your comment implies we were somehow skewing the models simply because of our location, which is not the case. The models have consistently shown a channel low giving widespread snow to the south. And people have merely commented accordingly.

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CSC Enthusiast

CSC

Posted
Posted

It is a case of METO vs everyone tonight. I am still backing METO.

They have been the leaders in the past in these scenarios and will continue to be in the future.

I cannot believe that the most favourable outcome for snow for all models is the METO. Usually its GFS on a drunk one. Again, even the best models can have lapses and errors in their operational runs but I really do hope for my sanity that the METO is right and I think on this occasion it will once again prove to be.

I cannot remember a time when we are not sure what will happen in just 24 hours. There are scenarios ranging from snow in JUST 12 HOURS to 12 inches falling in Kent on Tuesday evening to no snow at all..

Astonishing. Simply astonishing stuff.

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here comes round 3 of IMBY toys out the pram petty arguments!!!

image.thumb.png.8ccf1c167d0d28fbd253853e0257d93e.png

It's out of control!!! just as a side note great fi there and good heights to the north

Edited by swfc
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, bluearmy said:

More significant I feel feb ........watch those height anoms to our north 

Yes Nick - Just edited my post accordingly based on the 276 chart.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
1 minute ago, CSC said:

It is a case of METO vs everyone tonight. I am still backing METO.

They have been the leaders in the past in these scenarios and will continue to be in the future.

I cannot believe that the most favourable outcome for snow for all models is the METO. Usually its GFS on a drunk one. Again, even the best models can have lapses and errors in their operational runs but I really do hope for my sanity that the METO is right and I think on this occasion it will once again prove to be.

I cannot remember a time when we are not sure what will happen in just 24 hours. There are scenarios ranging from snow in JUST 12 HOURS to 12 inches falling in Kent on Tuesday evening to no snow at all..

Astonishing. Simply astonishing stuff.

Sorry mate but you need to be a bit more specific .......precisely where over the next six days are you backing METO???

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Just had a quick look at the models........looks like I could be getting a right dumping sometime this week, that's what happens when you chow down 'Ex-Lax' tablets like smarties.......I'll fetch me coat 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

All this talk of milder towards the end of next week..BUT the GEFS 12z mean still looks very cold next weekend!❄️:cold:

21_168_2mtmpmax.png

21_192_2mtmpmax.png

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Stonethecrows Enthusiast

Stonethecrows

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Cymro said:

I fully agree with Inghams85 reading the last 20+ pages of this thread as a Welshman I thought I was in the South East Regional....let us have less imbyism and more of a Uk wide view? I mean Scotland is cold and snowy from this night onwards, Wales has seen a lot of snow last week and more looks likely this week, Midlands North and Wales tapping in on snow showers from tomorrow onwards...but reading this thread you’d think the UK stops north of the M4! 

It's not just on here but the beeb, met office, tabloids and the like always make a big deal of it if there is snow down south. Six inches in Wales or Yorkshire for example would not get a mention on the national news but one inch in london would be a third of that evenings bulletin. I suppose maybe they think they deserve snow seen as they often don't see as much.

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snowspotter Enthusiast

snowspotter

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Surrey
  • Location: Reigate Surrey
Posted

I am not sure what mind bending drugs people are on at present but I am looking at the charts and thinking that all I can see is a continuation of pretty much nothing. No HLB , nothing at all YET from the SSW and we are basically at the end of January . No snow at all for southern areas. I will personally eat my hat and buy a pint for members on here if the channel low delivers for the SE. I'd put it at about a 1:50 chance so I have already written it off. In the meantime we are heading into February. I think a dose or realism is needed in here .

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CSC Enthusiast

CSC

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Sorry mate but you need to be a bit more specific .......precisely where over the next six days are you backing METO???

Hey dude, apologies! Very tired haha and trying to keep with this half asleep!

I mean, rather not for the extended, but for snow on Tuesday night into Wednesday. 

Apologies! 

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