Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
Just now, Updated_Weather said:

They said it’ll be “less cold,milder” by weekend.

 

laughing stock they really are.

Forget bbc broad casts not up to speed with models

how many times 

jees 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
1 minute ago, SnowLover87 said:

BBC 9.55pm had country almost dry Tues/Thursday apart from Snow showers.  Then potentially milder. WTF

 

That could easily prove correct though.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, snowbob said:

Forget bbc broad casts not up to speed with models

how many times 

jees 

I think i agree- but i would still much prefer it if they were forecasting blizzards..

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham

There are going to be winners and losers in all of this. To add some nationwide perspective the first low heading in to France and the second one being further north are both good for the Midlands north Tuesday and Thursday. Tuesday should see copious wintry showers Tuesday into Wednesday with troughs and disturbances in a very disturbed flow. The site is populated by mainly South Eastern members though and it's human nature so is expected. Just thought this needed pointing out for anyone in areas further north getting confused by the last few comments...

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
24 minutes ago, kold weather said:

GFS still way weaker than any other run. Let's see what the para shows but GFS is a huge outlier pattern wise.

The low is near the Biscay region, the disturbance just south of the channel is a trailing front:

72-779.thumb.gif.518c58a6ef5bc0ddfdd883ba0aa18153.gif72-515.thumb.gif.5d91a6df7a41c7501d2a3ed084a92e3f.gif

It's going to need a massive correction north to get close to the ICON!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
1 minute ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:

As usual it's gone south....really no surprise....9 times out of 10 they do....

 

That does bring in some colder air though so rough with the smooth.

Its one run it's not in the bag, wait till 00z still alot of snow for the Northwest. Nothing is decided till 48, 72 hours. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

They said it’ll be “less cold,milder” by weekend.

 

laughing stock they really are.

Why are they a laughing stock? Maybe the forecast is correct

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

BBC WILL BE WORKING ON THE 00Z RUNS PEOPLE. 

But there will still be those who deny that, even though it’s blatantly obvious.

On a serious note, it’s still a possibility that we don’t see snow this week.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London
1 minute ago, inghams85 said:

There are going to be winners and losers in all of this. To add some nationwide perspective the first low heading in to France and the second one being further north are both good for the Midlands north Tuesday and Thursday. Tuesday should see copious wintry showers Tuesday into Wednesday with troughs and disturbances in a very disturbed flow. The site is populated by mainly South Eastern members though and it's human nature so is expected. Just thought this needed pointing out for anyone in areas further north getting confused by the last few comments...

The models are showing snow for the south. It's a channel low. What else do you expect to read?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
52 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Was not living here then but surely this delivered.

image.thumb.png.fa08869f6ee50ce7ccc170496961c8c7.png

it did indeed landlady from the local pub was seen skiing down the main road hill 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL

What a winter of letdowns so far .... 

The charts flip flop so much seems weather even more unpredictable now than other times before . 

cant predict Mother Nature it seems more than two days ahead. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, BARRY said:

it did indeed landlady from the local pub was seen skiing down the main road hill 

I know it did for Devon - it did 5 inches worth for brum too, just thought it would have Manchester and more specifically the Pennines too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
16 minutes ago, snowking said:

Presumably MOGREPS must be further south in its track....I can’t make out why otherwise they would do this given the rest of the output we are privy to (with the old GFS the exception to this of course....but I highly doubt they would modify a UKMO Fax based upon the GFS det.)

Thursday kris .....they have modified their fax to be ec op rather than their own model 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border

All those sl*gging off the beeb,,,, some models show exactly what they are saying, the lows generally do track south into the bay of biscay region; dont discount the strong possibility

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
8 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

They said it’ll be “less cold,milder” by weekend.

 

laughing stock they really are.

Tbf the only laughing stock is this place at times, soooo much over analysing all the time, no model, human or any kind of forecaster will actually know who where or what will drop from the sky and this time. It’s Saturday night and we are all getting hung up on a potential event Tuesday/Wednesday and so on. Get a grip people and just enjoy a possible build up of excitement and just hope it don’t get dashed last minute 

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
5 minutes ago, Mac_SE said:

The models are showing snow for the south. It's a channel low. What else do you expect to read?

Did you even read my line about it being human nature? I guess not as your on the defensive 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...