Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Recommended Posts

Updated_Weather Seasoned

Updated_Weather

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Posted
Just now, shaky said:

I think we can comfortably say ukmo is an outlier tonight lol!!expect it to change back on the 00z!!dunno what went wrong with it to be honest

I wouldn't say UKMO is an outlier, looks to me the most reasonable way ahead considering what's going on with the AO and MJO

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hammer Aficionado

Hammer

Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

I think we can comfortably say ukmo is an outlier tonight lol!!expect it to change back on the 00z!!dunno what went wrong with it to be honest

You mean GFS?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bartlett High Aficionado

Bartlett High

Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
Posted

You all might wanna catch the BBC 21:55 forecast ….the word 'MEH' comes to mind.

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

Fax chart @ T120, snow line from just north of London there up towards Manchester. Interesting stuff.

fax120s.gif

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

Gfs 18z takes low well to the south, just to weak a feature.

A very plausible option, but until we get some cross model agreement, track and intensity still undecided.

E2A00F2A-01C6-4732-87A3-D0B6C75A543B.thumb.png.a06200b66b574e64214969afce286102.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

You all might wanna catch the BBC 21:55 forecast ….the word 'MEH' comes to mind.

No don't spoil it, I haven't watched yesterday's episode yet! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

GFS T108, vortex you need to grow up, anguished look on face OK, but the top hat, seriously, smugness will come back to bite you in February!

image.thumb.jpg.affec4631cf273de8b5dd0d0d33a8a30.jpg

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Deep Snow please Rising Star

Deep Snow please

Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS T108, vortex you need to grow up, anguished look on face OK, but the top hat, seriously, smugness will come back to bite you in February!

image.thumb.jpg.affec4631cf273de8b5dd0d0d33a8a30.jpg

Look at your face, you big disgrace, chucking your cold all over the place, we will we will want you....

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Exeter have modified their day 5 FAX .........not often they do that ....UKMO clearly considered a dodgy run by them 

Nice that FAX-gate is put to bed. We can sleep easily now. 

Edited by Mike Poole
Link to comment
Share on other sites
snowking Accomplished

snowking

Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
Posted
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Exeter have modified their day 5 FAX .........not often they do that ....UKMO clearly considered a dodgy run by them 

Presumably MOGREPS must be further south in its track....I can’t make out why otherwise they would do this given the rest of the output we are privy to (with the old GFS the exception to this of course....but I highly doubt they would modify a UKMO Fax based upon the GFS det.)

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
CSC Enthusiast

CSC

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Liima said:

No don't spoil it, I haven't watched yesterday's episode yet! 

BBC are tosh..

METO app still goes heavy snow for much of SE UK, much more reliable than BBC. Even if METO vs every model I would still back METO.

I think London and South East will be the winners this time!

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Banbury Experienced

Banbury

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

You all might wanna catch the BBC 21:55 forecast ….the word 'MEH' comes to mind.

Just to put some perspective 

They didn't have a clue it was quite clear - white blobs over England and Wales , I don't think I can recall so much uncertainty at such a short time period , she also said about the LP at the end of the week, we don't where the air will be coming from - some will have rain but some will have snow 

Edited by Banbury
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Chertseystreamer79 Enthusiast

Chertseystreamer79

Posted
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
Posted
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Exeter have modified their day 5 FAX .........not often they do that ....UKMO clearly considered a dodgy run by them 

As usual it's gone south....really no surprise....9 times out of 10 they do....

 

That does bring in some colder air though so rough with the smooth.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Drifter Rising Star

Drifter

Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
Posted
8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Exeter have modified their day 5 FAX .........not often they do that ....UKMO clearly considered a dodgy run by them 

That's updated earlier than usual on meteociel - plus even though the valid timestamps on the top left are correct, the run timestamp in the top right shows it as being from the 00z run?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

Re UKMO 120 and fax charts.. I’m confused now ad I thought the UKMO this afternoon was a stunner, if the met have made a change on the Fax then surely it cannot be for the better?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
Just now, SnowLover87 said:

BBC 9.55pm had country almost dry Tues/Thursday apart from Snow showers.  Then potentially milder. WTF

 

So they have the front even further north than EC then??

EC kept the north cold right thru..

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...