Cold hunt - models and chat

[SMU]

2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

The thing that worries me about this system was touched upon a few pages back and thats onshore flow as the LP Advances from west to east or whatever track it takes. Usually in Channel Low Set-Ups of the Past and the real ones of ficton like Man With Beard just said about we have entrenched cold over the Uk and a huge Scandi Block to the East, the Dp's are cold enough on the Continent to advect into the Uk from France and the Low Countries to keep it less than marginal. This Set-Up worries me in that respect hugely, as others have said with elevation across the Downs, Chilterns, Salisbury Plain etc it should not be a problem but I can see this being a rain to snow/slush event for low lying areas.

I 100% with one caveat- evaporational cooling & PPN intensity could well bring the zero degree level down to the surface-

In terms of the Thursday snow - unusual signal - however very low heights & a deep wedge of cold surface air -

Thurs opening temps

[The Beast From The East]

I only just caught the end of the BBC weather for Tuesday but I thought it showed a low pressure system going through the middle of France. Is this the same low were all hoping goes somewhere over the UK or is it a different one? There was no talk of disruptive snow. Thanks in advance ❄??

Edited January 26, 2019 by The BEAST From The East
Added

[Mike Poole]

GFS rolling, at T36 possibilities of surprise snowfall towards the east of the country 

[Mac_SE]

13 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

You're spot on there BA!

If the "beast from the east" was in mythical hibernation between 1991 and last March, the true "channel low" is in hibernation with the dinosaurs. I don't think I've ever seen one like this within T72 in the internet era. It is the nirvana for the snow starved south coast, but it's the most perilous snow set-up of all. Usually a very marginal affair, it relies on a front running in a straight line pretty much west to east, with the centre as close to the channel coast as possible without actually getting to the coast. 9 out of 10 times it goes wrong and we (the southern coasters) get nothing or flooded; but in the 1 or less times out of 10 times that it will fall perfect (in theory - because I've never actually seen it in 25 years living on this coast), then, snowfalls of 10cm, 20cm, 30cm, dare I say even 40cm or 50cm are possible if the intensity is spot on. There's no risk / reward like it in UK weather.

So I'm feeling very nervous right now. Do you know, it was actually a relief to look through all 51 ensemble members and see only about 8 with a really good snowfall for the south coast - it softened my expectations somewhat, and that's calmed me down!

If the best op runs for the south coast become the norm this time tomorrow though... netweather will need to set up a crisis hotline for those south of the M4.

For those north of the M4, do not worry - your snow will come later in the week, have no doubt - or maybe even Tuesday night according to many of the ensembles

Was the famous Dec 79 storm a channel low?

[snowking]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

To add to that, intensity surely will be a factor. Very high intensity will help chances, low intensity, more chance of rain.

Absolutely - assuming that NWP has all the parameters nailed (which it almost certainly doesn’t yet), DP’s are generally around 0-1c, so it will take some really intense precipitation to ensure snowfall

I’ve seen countless times before the intensity of precipitation downgrade as we move closer to T+0, so the timing of the front occluding and the deepening of the low in the channel would be key to ensuring as much falls as snow as possible

[snowhope]

10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Thursday's precipitation type charts from the ICON.

Bank!

 

[Paul Sherman]

Agree with all the responses ref Precip Strength etc from Steve, Snowking and MWB

Lets hope luck is on our side and lets see if the Pub Run carries on with the track

[tinybill]

i know we worrying about 2  lows  i think we  should keep am eye on this  one  at 132 hr

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, tinybill said:

i know we worrying about 2  lows  i think we  should keep am eye on this  one  at 132 hr

You do know thats an old run right?

[Derecho]

It's crazy to think there is still some uncertainty with regards to how tomorrow works out. The 12z parallel gets the cold air east quickly tomorrow. Therefore the showers forecast for tomorrow afternoon fall as snow in eastern areas.

The 18z OP in contrast is rather more sluggish meaning the showers fall as rain. It's so finely poised and we gave gales to contend with as well.

Edited January 26, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[Catacol]

1 minute ago, tinybill said:

i know we worrying about 2  lows  i think we  should keep am eye on this  one  at 132 hr

Modelled like that it is a big rain event for all bar high ground.

[snowray]

25 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Difficult to say if it will even make it this far north!

These lows ‘usualy’ trend south, however on this occasion, and looking at that ECM mean there does look to be a chance that it will have enough ommph to track in the channel- instead of France.

May of us will be watching the track very closely I should think  .

 

 

Near miss on the gfs 18z, but lots of snow showers around none the less. Will the para keep the low further north I wonder?

[tight isobar]

If this current running is'nt getting ya juices flowing..then nothibg wil..

We have an incoming feature that could make some HEADLINES!!..

AS b4 we have a constantly modeled U-BEND feature with an embedded lps-..

Some 1 will kop it.

And as again, the usual m4 crew could be laughing..as the infold gains...

There is STILL- Wiggle room but a tues/weds- news making event..has scope!!!

Edited January 26, 2019 by tight isobar

[IDO]

GFS Tuesday low: 

[Astral Goat Juice]

Just now, IDO said:

GFS Tuesday low: 

Looks great for the North West of England and midlands North, lots of disturbances. 

[Mike Poole]

18z gone right into France, maybe to be expected.   Compare with JMA, GFS first T72' then JMA T78:

i still back the deeper low, further north solution, but it's getting pretty close now, T72 the models should 'av'it.  They haven't.

[kold weather]

GFS still way weaker than any other run. Let's see what the para shows but GFS is a huge outlier pattern wise.

[IDO]

1 minute ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

Looks great for the North West of England and midlands North, lots of disturbances. 

Yes: 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

Looks great for the North West of England and midlands North, lots of disturbances. 

Aye, would be best for these areas if the low moved into France, too close and showers are cut off

[Deep Snow please]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

GFS Tuesday low: 

For much of northern England, Wales and the midlands that's the worst possible outcome. Okay for some southern fringes but everyone else reliant on showers.

[PsychedelicTony]

27 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON snow depth maxes out around Buckmore park Kent 10-11inches

Or Snowdonia

[snowray]

31 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON snow depth maxes out around Buckmore park Kent 10-11inches

Wow, just about everyone gets snow on the ICON by Tuesday, even I get my 10cm.

 

Erm, whats this FAX chart all about guys? Just out T92?

Guess its running similar to the ICON, snow continuing in the east Weds morning if this verifies.

Edited January 26, 2019 by snowray

[Catacol]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

GFS Tuesday low: 

Hmmm - not a solution that the SE will want. But GFS is generally shockingly poor at modelling the track of elastic systems as they approach the south of the UK. ECM and UKMO are the keys for the coming week.

[Tim Bland]

GFS is dead to me. I blame Trump and his wall...should be gone by now!

[shaky]

I think we can comfortably say ukmo is an outlier tonight lol!!expect it to change back on the 00z!!dunno what went wrong with it to be honest