Cold hunt - models and chat

[Dean E]

Please don't be set on snowfall total maps, really will not be clear to around 12 hours out and even then PPN varies!

Liking the consistency today, a rare channel low is looking more likely to effect some areas of the UK now and it's only 2/3 days away.

[Mike Poole]

JMA T192, and still this model puts in the good synoptics and chances, 

We will have a much better idea where we stand this time tomorrow.  

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Very encouraging signs from the ECM.

Given where we were with the stuck low over the UK a few days back these improvements are a good sign.

And if we can see just a little more weakening of the low and more se track this could help keep some colder air to the east .

looks way too mild for you?

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, snowice said:

That's Brexit kicking In lol

Your location sounds like it should have Kate Bush singing Wuthering Heights !

Hill Of Tara sounds fab . Just seen some images , wow! 

Anyway back to the models , very happy with tonights trends .

[chionomaniac]

8 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

ECM Snow Accumulation Amounts - Wednesday 9am. (ECM accumulations all falling snow, so slightly overdone)

From this I expect 2-3cm along M4 Corridor, 3-5cm along coast & 5-8cm across far SE.

 

Hi Ben. Could you possibly show snow amounts for Scotland, please?

[Winter Hill]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

looks way too mild for you?

All I see I a blank white image. Does that mean nick Sussex is snowed in ?

[kold weather]

15 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Netwx MR Model - Snow Risks till Friday:

Sunday: Back-edge sleet/snow? 

Monday: Feature moving across UK, snow risk highest north. 

Tuesday: Precipitation clips south coast, no notable snow.

Thursday: Heavy snow to rain event, the back to snow. 

Given it's using the GFS operational for data it will broadly look like the GFS...the only model not to have the channel low, so ignore Tuesday. Thursday looks reasonable to me though!

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

looks way too mild for you?

Doesn’t worry me. Some great snow now in the Pyrenees and so very happy and it looks encouraging for the UK.

[shaky]

just as i thought snow for midlands and wales from ecm at 120 hours!!

[Ben Sainsbury]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

Hi Ben. Could you possibly show snow amounts for Scotland, please?

Apologies, here is the Scotland accumulations up until Wednesday 9am also.

[Daniel*]

11 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

ECM Snow Accumulation Amounts - Wednesday 9am. (ECM accumulations all falling snow, so slightly overdone)

From this I expect 2-3cm along M4 Corridor, 3-5cm along coast & 5-8cm across far SE.

 

With this intensity 20-24mm/hr there’d be much more than X3 for sweetspots it’s very heavy snow. Will change but don’t rule out big amounts in far southeast.

 

Edited January 26, 2019 by Daniel*

[Ben Sainsbury]

8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

With this intensity 20-24mm/hr there’d be much more than X3 for sweetspots it’s very heavy snow.

 

Typically rainfall to snow accumulation ratios are what, 1:8 or 1:10? so 20mm would correspond to 16/20cm of snowfall within a 6 hour period.. WOW.

Edited January 26, 2019 by Ben Sainsbury

[Bristawl Si]

11 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

BIt disappointing those totals, considering the huge dumpings that channel lows have given in the past.

Agreed.

That Low will eventually end up as a Northern France 'job', maybe skirting south coast of England.

With 2+ days to 'landing' gut feel says minimal 'touchdown' for S England.

[Summer Sun]

4 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Apologies, here is the Scotland accumulations up until Wednesday 9am also.

If you select United Kingdom under the change map selection tab you'll get it all on in one go

[Mapantz]

6 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Typically rainfall to snow accumulation ratios are what, 1:8 or 1:10? so 20mm would correspond to 16/20cm of snowfall in a hour... WOW.

I very much doubt that. It's also a total over a 6 hour period, not rainfall intensity.

Edited January 26, 2019 by Mapantz

[ICE COLD]

Evening people 

I’ve just been sitting back watching today , trying not to get too excited lol . But watching the ECM come out has made me stop watching and thought I’d get involved . BLOODY STONKING ECM and all the other output . Loving my Saturday night now . Hopefully this is the turning point off the winter ?. 

@Steve Murr the SE buried on them charts above also the area I work in every week , can’t wait gonna Be carnage . 

Think todays runs are really worth a BOOM . 

[booferking]

[chionomaniac]

10 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Apologies, here is the Scotland accumulations up until Wednesday 9am also.

Thank you. @Huntforsnow if you ask nicely lol!

[swfc]

Nobody has mentioned the ens groups on any model today?take it there not up to much!!

[Cheese Rice]

Why do folks keep posting the ECM snow charts we all know they are useless. The model isn't high enough resolution to show true snow depths, it doesn't factor in modification from the sea, UHI, ground temps etc, all of which effect whether it'll even snow. 

[lassie23]

2 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

Why do folks keep posting the ECM snow charts we all know they are useless. The model isn't high enough resolution to show true snow depths, it doesn't factor in modification from the sea, UHI, ground temps etc, all of which effect whether it'll even snow. 

I'm expecting cloud with drizzle after viewing those charts

[chionomaniac]

7 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

Why do folks keep posting the ECM snow charts we all know they are useless. The model isn't high enough resolution to show true snow depths, it doesn't factor in modification from the sea, UHI, ground temps etc, all of which effect whether it'll even snow. 

I guess it’s for fun. We know that, but it’s a bit like when we dream of spending lottery winnings. And it is model related so is perfectly entitled to be in this thread.

Edited January 26, 2019 by chionomaniac

[booferking]

6 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

Why do folks keep posting the ECM snow charts we all know they are useless. The model isn't high enough resolution to show true snow depths, it doesn't factor in modification from the sea, UHI, ground temps etc, all of which effect whether it'll even snow. 

For fun mate for fun.

[bluearmy]

Note the little lows popping up on the occlusion at T126 ...could get even more interesting ........

Edited January 26, 2019 by bluearmy

[Mike Poole]

It's making my head hurt trying to sum up the model output today! 

It seems to me there are three different things going on:

1. The possible snow event Tuesday into Wednesday.
2. The possible horror locked in storm due to the low on Thursday and Friday.  Shudder.
3. The medium term northern hemisphere evolution, as it will affect February

1. You'd think at T72 we'd have a good idea about this 'channel low' now but we don't, the English Channel is a small target, so a hundred miles or so north or south will make a big difference to who if anyone gets a snowfall.  Add to that marginal uppers a possibility, but against that the relevant time looks to be at night!  I guess, wait 24 hours and if it is still on, use the high res models, radar and nowcasting.  Hope it holds, would relish a short term snow chase! 

2. UKMO 12z doesn't have this storm Thursday, it didn't phase the lows earlier, most other models do, ECM 12z only half went for it.   My guess is that it won't happen now, faith in UKMO...

3. The downwelling from the strat is now affecting the weather down here, but initially  the more significant high latitude heights are unfortunately on the other side of the north hemisphere, hints from today's modelling that we might get in the game soon.  And it is a game that could run to mid March, yes, but my patience wearing thin, which is why I so want the Tuesday scenario to deliver at least for some!

Regards

Mike