Cold hunt - models and chat

[snowice]

4 minutes ago, East801 said:

Uppers to east at -4...lack of cold out east sadly. 

ECM 192

Edited January 26, 2019 by snowice

[East801]

Any early projections for snow totals tue night? Based on latest runs would say 5-8 cm widely across southern England ...likley to change 

[Summer Sun]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Could you post the images of UKMO ppn 72-96 as they arent on any website that I have any more

thanks

Here you go. Hopefully they'll be in order

Tuesday & Wednesday

Thursday & into Friday

 

[East801]

Just now, snowice said:

ECM 192

Much better...those values will drop further if we can maintain the NE flow 

[festivalking]

1 minute ago, East801 said:

Any early projections for snow totals tue night? Based on latest runs would say 5-8 cm widely across southern England ...likley to change 

I'd say amounts and locations are at the moment irrevelant. Channel lows duck and dive at the last minute. Will be a classic now casting situation. Good luck.

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 minute ago, East801 said:

Any early projections for snow totals tue night? Based on latest runs would say 5-8 cm widely across southern England ...likley to change 

Will change every 6 hours! Think 2-4'' inches if you avoid possible rain - somewhere could cop a foot though if it develops positively......you heard it here first. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Netwx MR Model - Snow Risks till Friday:

Sunday: Back-edge sleet/snow? 

Monday: Feature moving across UK, snow risk highest north. 

Tuesday: Precipitation clips south coast, no notable snow.

Thursday: Heavy snow to rain event, the back to snow. 

[winterof79]

13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

168 Sees us back into a NE flow

Hence the MET constantly mentioning chance in early Feb

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, fromey said:

Copy and pasted from M Hugo twitter, could this explain some of the charts we have seen???

AAM and SSW final downwell potentially about to combine to bring about a very interesting period of model watching. The GWO amplitude is as high as it has been since last Nov. Everything continues to point towards major blocking regimes for the final third of winter.

Well as far as I understand the SSW effects have downwelled to affect our weather down here now, and that's fine, and there does look to be an uptick in AAM, maybe correlated to move of MJO into favourable areas, here AAM plot from CFS 

The first thing we will see, in my opinion, is model mayhem, followed by some snow!! 

[MattStoke]

ECM precipitation type charts give Tuesday’s system initially as rain, turning to sleet and snow.

[kold weather]

Very impressive ECM this evening. Good to see the channel low is present. May still be a little marginal on South coast due to the flow but with heavy precop it should stay as snow.

Anyway 24hrs to go, once we get to that point we should be ok, but still 24hrs for changes.

[feb1991blizzard]

Oh yes sir - first signs???

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Here you go. Hopefully they'll be in order

Tuesday & Wednesday

Thursday & into Friday

 

Cheers theres a fair bit in there for the SE-

Heres the ECM for 06z Weds AM

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Will change every 6 hours! Think 2-4'' inches if you avoid possible rain - somewhere could cop a foot though if it develops positively......you heard it here first. 

Haha I've been saying that since Thursday as my wildcard. It is still a wildcard but based on most of the 12z runs id say south downs maybe one such place.

[Ben Sainsbury]

ECM Snow Accumulation Amounts - Wednesday 9am. (ECM accumulations all falling snow, so slightly overdone)

From this I expect 2-3cm along M4 Corridor, 3-5cm along coast & 5-8cm across far SE.

 

[Pembroke Dangler]

Trigger low will drop into France and then we have a scandi Russian high link up.

[Huntforsnow]

1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

ECM Snow Accumulation Amounts - Wednesday 9am. (ECM accumulations all falling snow, so slightly overdone)

From this I expect 2-3cm along M4 Corridor, 3-5cm along coast & 5-8cm across far SE.

 

Oh we have lost Scotland again

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

ECM Snow Accumulation Amounts - Wednesday 9am. (ECM accumulations all falling snow, so slightly overdone)

From this I expect 2-3cm along M4 Corridor, 3-5cm along coast & 5-8cm across far SE.

 

BIt disappointing those totals, considering the huge dumpings that channel lows have given in the past.

[MattStoke]

ECM precipitation charts then give Thursday’s system as snow from Wales and the Midlands northwards.

[Scandinavian High.]

2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

ECM Snow Accumulation Amounts - Wednesday 9am. (ECM accumulations all falling snow, so slightly overdone)

From this I expect 2-3cm along M4 Corridor, 3-5cm along coast & 5-8cm across far SE.

 

South East England looks to be the sweet spot..

[kold weather]

The timing isn't ideal for this systems arrival on the models. Delay that another 6hrs and you'd get that 6 inches more widely. Still I'd take 3-5cms happily at the moment.

[Day_9]

Just now, MattStoke said:

ECM precipitation charts then give Thursday’s system as snow from Wales and the Midlands northwards.

Wales is 200 miles long.

[nick sussex]

Very encouraging signs from the ECM.

Given where we were with the stuck low over the UK a few days back these improvements are a good sign.

And if we can see just a little more weakening of the low and more se track this could help keep some colder air to the east .

[MattStoke]

Just now, Day_10 said:

Wales is 200 miles long.

Random fact but OK

[Winter Hill]

2 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

South East England looks to be the sweet spot..

I think Cumbria might have a word with you