Cold hunt - models and chat

[Hammer]

10 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

WOW would have put money on ECM going Pete Tong re Tuesday. We have cross model agreement now! Time to start chasing it North or south 50 miles each day now ! Going to be a nerve wracking few days! 

Yes T72 good agreement of position of low. Will be interesting to see where it goes. Thinking Oxford type of location a good place.

And I dont mean for the low to go to. LOL.

Edited January 26, 2019 by Hammer
Humour

[warrenb]

144 interesting. Low diving south

[Guest]

1 minute ago, ukpaul said:

850s are much better on GFS.

Even when considering that -6 might not be needed the UKMO, GFSP and ECM are flirting with marginality for those closer to the system. -2 or even 0 850s around it. Snow/rain/snow maybe?

It does look like a messy picture on Tuesday! The track is similar on the three models but even the slight differences translate to bigger ones at the surface.

[shaky]

Honestly this is a brilliant run so far!!not like the ukmo but its a massive improvement low slides south!!snow line i think should be much further south this evenining!!just compare the charts from 12z yesterday and todays 00z to this evenings!!we are goin in the right directtion!!

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Nope that is a better chart from ecm at 120 hours!!further south and west compared to yesterdays 144 hour chart!!upgrades coming along i think!!

 

Just now, warrenb said:

144 interesting. Low diving south

It was more neg tilted approaching so a step towards Ukmo ....if we lose some intensity on the depth of the system you never know - the 00z runs awaited .....

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

No it's actually the weather which has underperformed so far...BUT..not for much longer by the way the week ahead is shaping up..colder with a risk of snow!

It's never been the same, since NASA and The UKMO installed those HAARP machines!

[SMU]

EC 144 softens up that low now - so yes, not quite UKMO levels of slackness but much much better

NB the atlantic block as well

 

[Mark wheeler]

On 25/01/2019 at 17:51, Lampostwatcher said:

 

Woahh round 2 ?

 

Sorry Lampost watcher can get rid of the above .

Edited January 26, 2019 by Mark wheeler

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144

well it didn't go into the bowling ball low over the UK scenario, still two lows near to UK.  Uppers not very cold at all at this point but potential going forward?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, warrenb said:

144 interesting. Low diving south

Aye looks good, but how come the non fantastic uppers? SE flow as well

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, warrenb said:

144 interesting. Low diving south

Yes very interesting track and again we see more amplification upstream in the atlantic.

not to UKMO levels but a great trend if we want a prolonged cold spell in Feb.

 

Edit

Why is the forum not uploading the links properly?

Works randomly.

Edited January 26, 2019 by Mucka

[shaky]

And dont worry bout the uppers with the low sliding the way it does and how slack it is there could be more snow around than meets the eye!!like steve said depends on the angle!!

[Summer Sun]

18 minutes ago, shaky said:

Anymore news on the.precipitaion charts from ukmo for 72 to 96 hours!!

They have some precipitation around in that time frame depending on how cold the air is some could see some snow.

Tuesday evening and into Wednesday sees the heaviest precipitation moving in from the west a bit more widespread in the south with a narrower band running up to around northern England and slowly fizzling out as it moves east

I won't bother posting them as sarcastic replies will just follow from certain folk

[Mucka]

That's more like it.

[Mike Poole]

Massive upgrade T168 on ECM, 

[SMU]

168 Sees us back into a NE flow

[Man With Beard]

ECM T168 — shock easterly coming up? 

(not to be believed any more than the 00z run of course ;). ) 

[SMU]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

They have some precipitation around in that time frame depending on how cold the air is some could see some snow.

Tuesday evening and into Wednesday sees the heaviest precipitation moving in from the west a bit more widespread in the south with a narrower band running up to around northern England and slowly fizzling out as it moves east

I won't bother posting them as sarcastic replies will just follow from certain folk

Could you post the images of UKMO ppn 72-96 as they arent on any website that I have any more

thanks

[Guest]

Positive ECM so far (not wanting to worry too much about uppers at this stage). Goodness only knows how it'll handle that energy heading out of Canada towards Greenland though.

[East801]

Uppers to east at -4...lack of cold out east sadly. 

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

23 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Damm ECM is tasty looking good

For everywhere expect Cornwall and possibly Devon 

And probably here on the south coast of Wales too knowing our luck

[snowice]

Just now, East801 said:

Uppers to east at -4...lack of cold out east sadly. 

Wait next chart if it plays ball will be - 8uppers.

[Bogman]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

They have some precipitation around in that time frame depending on how cold the air is some could see some snow.

Tuesday evening and into Wednesday sees the heaviest precipitation moving in from the west a bit more widespread in the south with a narrower band running up to around northern England and slowly fizzling out as it moves east

I won't bother posting them as sarcastic replies will just follow from certain folk

Personally, I'd like people to post charts of what could happen, not what they want to happen. And I know that applies both ways, but.....

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, East801 said:

Uppers to east at -4...lack of cold out east sadly. 

Don't worry about uppers at this stage.

[fromey]

Copy and pasted from M Hugo twitter, could this explain some of the charts we have seen???

AAM and SSW final downwell potentially about to combine to bring about a very interesting period of model watching. The GWO amplitude is as high as it has been since last Nov. Everything continues to point towards major blocking regimes for the final third of winter.