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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Popular Post
Posted

Nice ECM at day 3 with the Channel Low.

Far away from me so no wind dramas here ,great for my fellow coldies in the UK.

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
Posted
19 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

I know what the Stats show for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole and ECM this ECM that, Yada Yada

But the handling of when the weather has started to get "Interesting" around our shores I feel has been handled better by UKMO, remember we would be recovering from a massive Deep Freeze Easterly if the ECM had its way a few weeks back, or been blown towards China if the GFS had that 927mb Low hit the Uk a few weeks back as well

Agreed. We like ECM because it goes out to 10days...but once sub 120 UKMO often trumps the others around our locale. The UKMO run today for that reason has raised my spirits several notches after a series’s of very average medium range product from the models. Hunting cyclonic NW flow isn’t my thing, defined by my locale. For those up north - dance a jig!!!

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billyc Apprentice

billyc

Posted
  • Location: Gosport
  • Weather Preferences: coldy
  • Location: Gosport
Posted (edited)

I saw the models this morning and was thinking... don't get excited, don't get excited, don't get excited... but tonight I think a little bit of wee has come out! I don;t know a great deal about the models but it looks to me like the ECM is following the UKMO in the short term and could well deliver down here (IMBY I know)

I look forward to seeing the mornings runs, hopefully it continues on course.

Edited by billyc
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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

I'm quite overwhelmed by all the "boom's" in here tonight, and it's very ironic that if you say "BOOM" backwards, you say what I'm developing in the chest area as a side effect to middle age spread......it's an omen.....either that or I need to lay off the pies, chocolate, beer and kebabs

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Hammer Aficionado

Hammer

Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
Posted

Good agreement from several models of T72 from todays 12z. Plenty can happen from here but looks promising for many for time being.

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 72 identical to the UKMO ❄️❄️

Jeez, it’s like we are on the stratosphere rollercoaster in Vegas, we are going so high what a great name for the ride

20B9F14A-0B32-4633-8259-BB6F9DB75D18.jpeg

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

It's going to be a close call with this little low of Tuesday, somewhere Midlands and south could get a dumping  and boom boom time:bomb::bomb:, or it might just miss us and we end up with just a few showers. I have been waiting years for a channel low to actually make into Southern Britain, could this be it?:oldgood:

J72-21.gif

ECM1-72.gif

gfs-0-72.png

gem-0-72.png

UW72-21.gif

fax72s.gif

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

For new members here it’s common knowledge amongst the old timers that I despise storms !

So that’s why I’m very happy the low will hopefully run along the Channel , the less windy part is on the northern flank of the low aswell as the chances for snow . So I really hope that’s what transpires for favoured areas.

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

WOW would have put money on ECM going Pete Tong re Tuesday. We have cross model agreement now! Time to start chasing it North or south 50 miles each day now ! Going to be a nerve wracking few days! 

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Day 4 , not bad on the ECM . Now that low needs to slide se and not phase .

This would keep the colder air on its ne flank .

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festivalking Experienced

festivalking

Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
Posted
3 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Damm ECM is tasty looking good

For everywhere expect Cornwall and possibly Devon 

Should think the moors stand a fair chance!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

to be honest, I think all of the Models have seriously underperformed this winter

No it's actually the weather which has underperformed so far...BUT..not for much longer by the way the week ahead is shaping up..colder with a risk of snow!:cold:❄️

Edited by Frosty.
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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted
Just now, bluearmy said:

Ec plenty of snow for s England but looks predicated on intensity of precip with marginal dp’s 

Looks like marginal for southern coastal strips

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
Just now, TomW said:

ECM1-120.GIF?26-0

UKMO on its own this time around as it stands.

Very lonely .....and before anyone asks when the last time Ukmo was wrong days 4/5, the answer is about a week ago ! 

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ukpaul Aficionado

ukpaul

Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Liima said:

ECM looks marginal for the south on Tuesday, IMO.

850s are much better on GFS.

Even when considering that -6 might not be needed the UKMO, GFSP and ECM are flirting with marginality for those closer to the system. -2 or even 0 850s around it. Snow/rain/snow maybe?

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