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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

JMA taking the channel track, T78

image.thumb.jpg.3cd1868bf00dcd3a01816de540ab3d35.jpg

Uppers marginal on this one, the details of this will go down to the wire...but this track is very uncertain, will take at least another day to firm this up.  not sure how much ECM will tell us about this potential event with its 24 hr apart charts.  It will tell us more about the blow up low or not on Thursday.  Anyway, not long to wait...

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tinybill Seasoned

tinybill

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
Posted
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Wowzers.. thats some heavy snow!

 

I better not tell  the her  in doors yet until  until the country file weather !,  that is some snow

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Winter Hill Seasoned

Winter Hill

Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
Posted
3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO precipitation charts for Friday

00:00                                                                06:00                                                                12:00

us_model-en-330-9_modgbr_2019012612_132_18_83.thumb.png.718aa48a2af277b384c01585073ff2b2.pngus_model-en-330-9_modgbr_2019012612_138_18_83.thumb.png.911b5cb20690c67f6b83b8af689ea096.pngus_model-en-330-9_modgbr_2019012612_144_18_83(1).thumb.png.b2cae0bff451c7d574cc8805fbc7d2ef.png

I bet you could not wait to post them charts. 

 

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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted
Just now, Winter Hill said:

Hi Paul.

to be honest, I think all of the Models have seriously underperformed this winter. For me the UKMet Bowing down to the Icon when it said no to the Easterl was a kick in the proverbials 

Yep 100% agree with this statement as well.

Have been some serious mouths wide open moments with the models this winter, ICON did trump em all, and as you say they have all been pretty appalling

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Hammer Aficionado

Hammer

Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

I'm suprised at the level of optimism for this channel low, having lived in London for coming up to 6 years I've never seen them deliver and even prior to that I don't recall them ever really delivering for the far South. Its usually St Albans northwards that gets the goods. Depressingly in the last 6 years I've only seen lying snow once here. 

I think people are seeing what they want to see rather than the likely reality, having the choice of trekking up north for snow if I want to I know where I'm probably gonna be on Thursday. 

High risk and reward with them. They can be perfect for much of south. But I have seen them trend both into France with less benefiting and closer to south coast with then more benefitting.  

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ptow Contributor

ptow

Posted
  • Location: Fleet, Hampshire
  • Location: Fleet, Hampshire
Posted
8 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

I'm suprised at the level of optimism for this channel low, having lived in London for coming up to 6 years I've never seen them deliver and even prior to that I don't recall them ever really delivering for the far South. Its usually St Albans northwards that gets the goods. Depressingly in the last 6 years I've only seen lying snow once here. 

I think people are seeing what they want to see rather than the likely reality, having the choice of trekking up north for snow if I want to I know where I'm probably gonna be on Thursday. 

They often deliver in Reading 

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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted
9 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

I'm suprised at the level of optimism for this channel low, having lived in London for coming up to 6 years I've never seen them deliver and even prior to that I don't recall them ever really delivering for the far South. Its usually St Albans northwards that gets the goods. Depressingly in the last 6 years I've only seen lying snow once here. 

I think people are seeing what they want to see rather than the likely reality, having the choice of trekking up north for snow if I want to I know where I'm probably gonna be on Thursday. 

They often Dont deliver in Essex 

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
10 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

I'm suprised at the level of optimism for this channel low, having lived in London for coming up to 6 years I've never seen them deliver and even prior to that I don't recall them ever really delivering for the far South. Its usually St Albans northwards that gets the goods. Depressingly in the last 6 years I've only seen lying snow once here. 

I think people are seeing what they want to see rather than the likely reality, having the choice of trekking up north for snow if I want to I know where I'm probably gonna be on Thursday. 

Could it possibly be because not everyone lives in the far south?

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Cheese Rice Community Regular

Cheese Rice

Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
Posted
10 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

Last year end of Feb/March?

For what? 

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

I bet you could not wait to post them charts. 

 

I never understand the obsession with precip charts. They are utterly useless.

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

It’s a pity on this run that we won’t see Wednesday at 00z hours. Should be able to make it out though....

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

Will it be snow or rain. Looks like nothing Monday 12z

8D795E67-D543-4704-B684-1DC884602F1B.thumb.jpeg.1ff31c1bde79a21125154edb6461b9ea.jpeg

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

ECM T72

image.thumb.jpg.b486768876bbe3a2a5cf621a96bc306c.jpg

Unsure what trajectory yet, could be good?  Certainly deeper rather than shallower which should keep it further north.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

I'm suprised at the level of optimism for this channel low, having lived in London for coming up to 6 years I've never seen them deliver and even prior to that I don't recall them ever really delivering for the far South. Its usually St Albans northwards that gets the goods. Depressingly in the last 6 years I've only seen lying snow once here. 

I think people are seeing what they want to see rather than the likely reality, having the choice of trekking up north for snow if I want to I know where I'm probably gonna be on Thursday. 

That’s because there hasn’t been a channel low in 6 years yet alone who sees what, they tend to deliver well for London area being in precip belt but also inland enough to be away from more marginal coast. Makes me excited the prospect. Better than frontal snowfall which generally peters out as it gets further east.

Edited by Daniel*
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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

ECM at 72, very UKMOish

ECM image.thumb.png.885ce53377aaa830c84e33579de6555e.png UKMO image.thumb.png.d70fd3b7500fa32d59bc6aca6ee0a658.png

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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted (edited)

deleted

Edited by Had Worse
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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T72

image.thumb.jpg.b486768876bbe3a2a5cf621a96bc306c.jpg

Unsure what trajectory yet, could be good?

Probably snow for most of England and Wales, given that it’s not too dissimilar to the UKMO and GFSP.

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Number 23 Aficionado

Number 23

Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything interesting!
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Certainly shows how far we have to go with the algorithms in the models as they stand, or perhaps the collection of starting data? Or both? 

Regardless of how chaotic it's been of late, it's also been an object lesson in the art of keeping powder dry when it comes to heralding the next ice age, and similarly declaring the end of winter! 

Great learning experience so far, and been great reading the resident experts trying to pick the bones out of this fiasco! 

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