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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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fromey Experienced

fromey

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
Posted
1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

GFSP higher resolution precipitation charts for Tuesday.

gfsp1.gif

GFSP2.gif

 

2C4B7C27-9A73-4794-B350-9CEC90BDB214.jpeg

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snowking Accomplished

snowking

Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
Posted
20 minutes ago, shaky said:

Are there any precipitation charts we can view from ukmo

Only up to +72 so it should start coming into range shortly (assuming it maintains a track that makes it interesting for us that is!)

 

B376EF21-F491-4D0F-ADAD-5A72CCAA535D.gif

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

BANK ☃️

9AE2173E-FE94-4A3E-9432-1D39E2EF25C0.png

Good for are location Tim and @bluearmy . We are in the oranges . Lovely jubbley , if it comes off . ??

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
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Posted
Just now, snowking said:

Only up to +72 so it should start coming into range shortly (assuming it maintains a track that makes it interesting for us that is!)

 

B376EF21-F491-4D0F-ADAD-5A72CCAA535D.gif

 Could be optimal timing as well for the SE - Arriving late eve - Snowing all night !

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

That low needs to stay north .

Down here a couple of squirrels bouncing around on top of the electric cables can give a power cut !

The GEFS are all over the place with that low . Some have nothing but a weak shortwave. A few develop it strongly . One would think the higher resolution ops should take precedence at this timeframe .

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

More snow on Thursday for some if the Para is on it?! More so for the north and Wales

image.thumb.png.8128a51a6314179f69638b61ddcf174a.png

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Winter Hill Seasoned

Winter Hill

Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, BARRY said:

Totally confused

The wink emoticon should give you a clue 

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
4 minutes ago, snowking said:

Only up to +72 so it should start coming into range shortly (assuming it maintains a track that makes it interesting for us that is!)

 

B376EF21-F491-4D0F-ADAD-5A72CCAA535D.gif

Brilliant keep us up to date buddy!!looks promising!!

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Luke Best Enthusiast

Luke Best

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
15 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think its just a touch smaller/weaker than the 06z run, other than that its in an identical place more or less.

IF the 12z para would come off, somewhere on the downs would be getting a 1ft, I'm fairly sure of that.

Dean E, I don't know if you have lived in Chichester since at least 2010 but I went uni down there. I remember there was a kind of 'reverse' channel low on I think the 1/2nd of December which gave the area 8-9 inches of snowfall. I remember sticking a glass out there and the glass was gone in the morning. This looks like a similar but more classic version, at least on the GFSP.

If memory serves that was a polar low that dropped down and stalled in the English Channel. Bournemouth was under a Met O Red Warning but the low tracked a little too far east before stalling and we ended up getting naff all snow whilst the A3 corridor took a pasting. 

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P-M Seasoned

P-M

Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
Posted
15 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Looks like rain in my region on that!

And if you want to see a snow shield modeled there it is over Tyne and Wear for all to see...

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

All we need is for the low 3 days away to track perfectly, at night would also help, then jobs a goodun to be fair the models are firming up on the idea but it’s nervy/fascinating times.

 

SM ref night arrival which could be the difference

Edited by That ECM
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BARRY Aficionado

BARRY

Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
Posted
Just now, Winter Hill said:

The wink emoticon should give you a clue 

been reading to many posts, got a hospital app on wed 17 miles away so watching with interest  

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

So for Tuesday:

I'd estimate based on looking at the precip fields that for the GFS ensembles:

30% - give snow showers on a weak trough I'd guess.

35% - do have some form of frontal action for the far south at least, but nothing too outrageous (like 1-2 inches I'd guess).

35% - give at least the south more sustained action from the LP.

Those odds are quite a way down from the 06z where it was more like 50-60% given heavy snow like the 3rd option. Those numbers I think are broadly similar to what the 00z ECM ensembles were.

HOWEVER there are now MORE runs not lifting the front as far north as the operational models are suggesting. So something to think about.

Edited by kold weather
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Winter Hill Seasoned

Winter Hill

Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
Posted

Chart of the day for me..

in my best Fred Dibnah voice.. looks alreet 

 

51107428-145D-4864-BD61-602FB23F4CDC.png

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

I wouldn’t base a forecast on GFS ensembles. It’s been all over the place recently. Remember it shouldn’t even exist any more. UKMO / ECM / ICON blend will be more accurate. We will also have Harlam & Euro4 to view soon. Let’s pray for a good ECM! 

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
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Posted

I remember living in London and then West Sussex and seeing these Channel Lows forecast .

My advice expect zip and then you might be pleasantly surprised . Normally with an Atlantic low crossing west to east no ones that bothered if the models are out a hundred miles .

But here with a Channel Low that’s crucial so I’d not bank on anything until within 48 hours and even then if you’re in the area with less margin for error I’d be very wary .

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I remember living in London and then West Sussex and seeing these Channel Lows forecast .

My advice expect zip and then you might be pleasantly surprised . Normally with an Atlantic low crossing west to east no ones that bothered if the models are out a hundred miles .

But here with a Channel Low that’s crucial so I’d not bank on anything until within 48 hours and even then if you’re in the area with less margin for error I’d be very wary .

We can throw as many cautionary tales out as we like but we know half the members have bought the output and are fully expecting and I would be disappointed as opportunities like these are rare. 

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Me! Tempted to not bother lol, always one that wants to be a spoil sport!

You know you will be hitting refresh in 45 mins the same as the rest of us !

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offerman Seasoned

offerman

Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
Posted
9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I remember living in London and then West Sussex and seeing these Channel Lows forecast .

My advice expect zip and then you might be pleasantly surprised . Normally with an Atlantic low crossing west to east no ones that bothered if the models are out a hundred miles .

But here with a Channel Low that’s crucial so I’d not bank on anything until within 48 hours and even then if you’re in the area with less margin for error I’d be very wary .

Spot on with that Nick. 

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offerman Seasoned

offerman

Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
Posted
4 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Me! Tempted to not bother lol, always one that wants to be a spoil sport!

Incredible stubourn HP to the SW if only that would budge westward ! 

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