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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

12z Gem throws up a much warmer airflow infront of the system on Tuesday (even upto N.Midlsnds +3/4C dewpoints!) I suspect that its overdone but just worth mentioning as its not a foregone conclusion that it will 100% be snow, especially as the cold air we have isn't that potent compared to what we would have had if we had an easterly embedded.

Steve - a lot of rain for most before that point though. Still good for us in the SE/East though I'll admit.

GEM is really bad for having uppers too high, and so dew points and low level air temperatures too.

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
5 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

JESUS WEPT!  Just logged on to be met with the UKMO at 144 

image.thumb.png.c7ed9b35850043455a5c8fd047d8f3f4.png

Then look at the GFS for the same time!!!

image.thumb.png.7356e0fdfa327447cdb39bbde721b86d.png

Staggering differences at this range. 

GFS always over blows up the lows! 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Just now, MattStoke said:

GEM is really bad for having uppers too high, and so dew points and low level air temperatures too.

I do agree, its kinda like the anti-GFS, which takes things too low.

Still thought it was worth mentioning for everyone. And as Steve shows, it still cools enough that the east gets a good snow event.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

I know it's pointless but another slider lining up on the GFS at D6/7...

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

So now the US Government shutdown is over, does anyone know whether we'll get to see the UKMO 168 tonight?

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn

Really interested to see where para goes for Tuesday! Hopefully more of the same, then longer term we want the ECM to follow the UKMO trend !!

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Just now, Jackski4 said:

Really interested to see where para goes for Tuesday! Hopefully more of the same, then longer term we want the ECM to follow the UKMO trend !!

We might know by Wednesday. It is so slow to roll out!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

GEM broadly looking similar to the GFS/ECM solution, so good agreement other than the UKMO (maybe it has found a nut, who knows?!) and has a strong low rotating in on Thursday, heavy snow for the north of England and Scotland.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Just now, kold weather said:

GEM broadly looking similar to the GFS/ECM solution, so good agreement other than the UKMO (maybe it has found a nut, who knows?!) and has a strong low rotating in on Thursday, heavy snow for the north of England and Scotland.

Must of been a pretty good NUT!

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Posted
  • Location: Hampshire Snow Hoper
  • Location: Hampshire Snow Hoper

Firm agreement now that by Wednesday,we should have a fair idea about Tuesdays weather,the Regionals should soon start to fill up with up to date info,finally,for folk fed up with South of the M4 corridor,does South of Junction 14 on the M25 have a softer ring to it.

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Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
23 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

Well well well is like the met office have told the UKMO model to start showing northern blocking or else

Chart of the year at this timeframe Screenshot_20190126-160508.thumb.png.15c200df776868577f64ee37bb0b2455.png

At the same time as Exeter’s extended goes a touch watery... 

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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire

RE Tuesday's Low track

Models continue today to play around with the Low, with the ICON 12z shift it 100 miles further North, meaning more of Southern England comes into play (likely south of the M4... Not often I say that!!!). EC 0z has near enough the same track which is encouraging.

Northern Areas could do well with streamer set ups given the strong winds from NW to NE as the low passes, so even if areas north miss out on the frontal band, doesn't mean showers could pack in along coastal areas. These small scale features only appear a day or so before the event.

However, I'd expect further 'wobbles' over the next few days.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Coldies have certainly been put through the mill the last few days !

I’d love to see that Channel low verify as it’s been a long time since the UK saw one of those .

I’d urge caution though because these are notoriously difficult to forecast even three days out.

Very much so, the trends though are at least going in the right direction for it that is for sure. I'm a touch concerned that its not really that cold at the surface given the type of cold we've had has been in bursts rather than sustained, but hopefully it will be just on the right side of marginal for most.

I'll start paying more attention once we get to tomorrows 12z suite, then we should have had genesis of the low and thus hopefully more confidence.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Can the UKMO really so wrong at 120hours? 

UKMO image.thumb.png.7e172940edef9c696089bf87b8d7e4b7.png GFS image.thumb.png.237f44f814a4539759d0cfcdf7e81723.png

If, and it's a big if, it's picked up a new signal that has so far evaded the other models, you would have to think the ECM will latch onto it later.  A middle ground between the GFS and UKMO wouldn't be a bad thing in my opinion.  

Utterly brilliant model watching, just what keeps bringing me back winter after winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

Ok, so to summarise the latest situation.

Met O website medium range outlook very cold and snowy

GFS cold and snowy

ECM mild and wet

UKMO model cold and snowy upgrade

BBC 7 day outlook, cold at first milder later.

Confused? You will be!!

Never known such a bloody shambles, makes the Brexit debate in Parliament look clear cut!

Andy

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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk

Wow Ukmo throws in a big run, curveball style.

.....and at probably the more realistic timeframe that blocks appear in my previous experience.

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea
Just now, Penrith Snow said:

Ok, so to summarise the latest situation.

Met O website medium range outlook very cold and snowy

GFS cold and snowy

ECM mild and wet

UKMO model cold and snowy upgrade

BBC 7 day outlook, cold at first milder later.

Confused? You will be!!

Never known such a bloody shambles, makes the Brexit debate in Parliament look clear cut!

Andy

the phrase 'clutching at straws' springs to mind.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

I already get the vibe the GFS P is going to deepen the first low up a lil again and not leave it like the OP run.

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