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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

As I suspected, cross polar heights nearly linked up. A beautiful chart, and only going one way Huge - NAO and -AO

Screenshot 2019-01-26 at 16.03.45.png

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

GEM a lot stronger on the 12z run with the channel feature on Tuesday, about 5-7mbs stronger and further north than the 00z run...carries on the trend!

Also would be very marginal by the south coast. It doesn't show much snow (mainly rain) but once again that is probably poor snow calculation and the grid size not being the best.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

The ukmo is very good and has kinda come out of nowhere. Ties in nicely with the beebs thoughts last night on the AO tanking. Even though I often champion the gfs the ukmo does seem to move more to what the background signals are hinting. A massive ecm tonight

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

Well well well is like the met office have told the UKMO model to start showing northern blocking or else

Chart of the year at this timeframe Screenshot_20190126-160508.thumb.png.15c200df776868577f64ee37bb0b2455.png

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales

If we can retain heights in the area in the red box I drew and the energy goes under exiting the esb I think we will be in business. 

8A0CA38A-55F6-4837-BF67-EA2A1F045A7D.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Good news on the MJO moving much quicker into phase 7.

This is welcome indeed ! Should help prospects for some blocking .

Mayne ukmo is.closer to the mark!!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, shaky said:

Mayne ukmo is.closer to the mark!!

It would still take some time with the time lag in trop response. The models at the moment are probably still responding to the SSW downwelling .

But it is good news re the MJO and let’s hope the ECM plays ball tonight .

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn

Just to clarify... UKMO looking good for Tuesday still but no storm on Thursday? But this is actually better? All very confusing 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Just now, January Snowstorm said:

I wonder how cold is ukmo though? Anyone know the uppers on it yet?

-5/-6 t144

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

GFS Parallel coming next... The last few runs of the GFS P have been remarkably snowy so we shall wait and see what it lays on our tables!

It has always been quite keen to deepen the low pressure for Tuesday's event!

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

JESUS WEPT!  Just logged on to be met with the UKMO at 144 

image.thumb.png.c7ed9b35850043455a5c8fd047d8f3f4.png

Then look at the GFS for the same time!!!

image.thumb.png.7356e0fdfa327447cdb39bbde721b86d.png

Staggering differences at this range. 

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
Just now, Jackski4 said:

Just to clarify... UKMO looking good for Tuesday still but no storm on Thursday? But this is actually better? All very confusing 

It’s better that it’s no storm because with deeper low pressure is likely to lift the colder uppers out ahead of the system meaning more rain than snow hope that clears it up 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
18 minutes ago, shaky said:

 

Much better ridging and waa on the gFS 12z at The 138 HR mark

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

12z Gem throws up a much warmer airflow infront of the system on Tuesday (even upto N.Midlsnds +3/4C dewpoints!) I suspect that its overdone but just worth mentioning as its not a foregone conclusion that it will 100% be snow, especially as the cold air we have isn't that potent compared to what we would have had if we had an easterly embedded.

Steve - a lot of rain for most before that point though. Still good for us in the SE/East though I'll admit.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
21 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yeah it is much weaker then the UKMO/ICON/ARGPE. I wouldn't rule it out being right either, even though that's not what I personally think.

until it forms tomorrow I'd suggest not getting hung up on the run-run of what that low does.

 

Coming from you sir....!!!

Serious work rate again today sir!

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