Cold hunt - models and chat

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

Yes, at this range, getting the right synoptic is more important than what the models say viz snow. 

Just need this to be consolidated going forward.

If the Tuesday low goes further north then snow for Midlands/north?

If it sinks towards Biscay, maybe more hope for Thursday's low to track more SE and we lose the snow?

Take your pick.

Possible that Tuesday can stay the same and then Thursdays can sink south a bit bringing the south into the game again? Surely?

[northwestsnow]

ICON is a snow fest IMBY from the front but if i were honest i would like the low to be a bit furher south to bring more into the game..

[Mike Poole]

Get the feeling it's going to be busy in here today.  But don't overlook this at T42:

Cold enough for some snow showers into early Monday morning?

[kold weather]

Already much weaker looking system for Tuesday compared to the ICON, I think again the GFS is not going to be doing anything much of the OP run much like the last few runs.

[shaky]

Arpege goes snow crazy across england at 72 hours!!

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

With the best will in the world, those are trash. It also didn't have anything for last Tuesday trough, not even snow...and indeed that was rather poor to say the least given what some people got. So don't take that verbatim is what I'd say based on previous experiences.

 

Well it’s not going to verify like that so that’s the main reason it would be ‘trash’ ! 

attemptimg to keep some feet on the ground ............fwiw, I have absolutely no expectation of decent snow cover this week for the north Home Counties .......hopefully I will be wrong but I see nothing currently to make me think different 

still happy with my n midlands call but wondering if I might have to adjust back north later on this evening .......

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well it’s not going to verify like that so that’s the main reason it would be ‘trash’ ! 

attemptimg to keep some feet on the ground ............fwiw, I have absolutely no expectation of decent snow cover this week for the north Home Counties .......hopefully I will be wrong but I see nothing currently to make me think different 

still happy with my n midlands call but wondering if I might have to adjust back north later on this evening .......

I agree with you on Thursday's low, but I'm going for the big call for Tuesday and I think the more extreme end of the northern/stronger batch will come in...though I'm sure the GFS will do its best to prove me wrong tonight!!

History would say nothing much would come from Tuesday, but ever since Thursday I've had a feeling this low may develop more than was expected and more and more models/ensembles are jumping on it now, at least to some extent.

ps, that does sound rather hopecasty I'll admit, its more based on what has happened to recent lows that have trended stronger/north within the medium term, the low this weekend for example has gotten progressively stronger over the last few days worth of models.

Edited January 26, 2019 by kold weather

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Arpege goes snow crazy across england at 72 hours!!

Indeed.

[Djdazzle]

19 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

With some snow cover, the right timing, and cold air in place, we have a shot

Yes - a shot. But still unlikely because all of those things have to come together.

[Chris.]

5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Arpege goes snow crazy across england at 72 hours!!

Does it?

 

[CSC]

Just now, Chris. said:

Does it?

 

Thats the wrong update..we are talking about 12z not 6z!

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Arpege goes snow crazy across england at 72 hours!!

That is kinda the thing that I am expecting to happen. The high resolution models may clock a stronger low better due to the better resolution, but may actually overdo the precipitation, but its within the range of options.

 

[Midlander]

1 minute ago, Chris. said:

Does it?

 

That 6Z not 12Z.

[SMU]

UKMO 96

[Eskimo]

2 minutes ago, Chris. said:

Does it?

 

If you're going to be smart, at least show the charts for late-tuesday, early wednesday...the period where the snow moves through...and the right run!

Edited January 26, 2019 by PerfectStorm

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, Chris. said:

Does it?

 

Thats 6z, not 12z

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 96

Good enough from the UKMO as well, not too severe but would bring a period of snow for sure.

GFS still going weaker as well and thus further SE. We will see what the ensembles say on the 12z, as well as the para.

Edited January 26, 2019 by kold weather

[Mike Poole]

UKMO T96, looks like the low has taken a channel track (T72 not out yet), decent I would suggest...

Edited January 26, 2019 by Mike Poole

[shaky]

Hmm interesting 96 hours from ukmo!!gfs separates a low again!!

[Ben Sainsbury]

Whilst the feature at T72 on GFS 12z is a lot shallower this run compared to ICON 12z, it helps pep up the snow showers running across England so even these could be heavy and widespread.

[MattStoke]

Tuesday's low only scrapes the far south west on the GFS. However, it has a lot of snow showers moving west to east across the UK.

[Chris.]

2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Thats 6z, not 12z

metoeciel must be behind

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, Chris. said:

metoeciel must be behind

Nope, I got it from meteociel also

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

UKMO T96, looks like he low has taken a channel track (T72 not out yet), decent I would suggest...

It’s out and that is what it does.

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Tuesday's low only scrapes the far south west on the GFS. However, it has a lot of snow showers moving west to east across the UK.

Yeah it is much weaker then the UKMO/ICON/ARGPE. I wouldn't rule it out being right either, even though that's not what I personally think.

until it forms tomorrow I'd suggest not getting hung up on the run-run of what that low does.

 

Edited January 26, 2019 by kold weather