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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Kentspur said:

 

Assuming it ends up a similar track wouldn't it mean more chance of snow for those south of the M4 based upon the fact were in mid winter now?

If it tracks similar to last year then no as the onshore flow ahead of the system wipes out any cold for the SE-

For the SE the track needs to be along the channel !

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
15 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Hi Mucka, the ECM ensembles show again that the ECM operational is within the top 5-6 ensemble runs for the key time frame for the snow set-up. That's good to see as it suggests the ECM ensembles are now quite as far north with the milder air.

Yes it is. 

I was thinking more in general terms for forecast ground temps out into FI, the mean has crept up 2C or 3C in the last couple of days for early Feb but obviously attention is on the more foreseeable and chances of snow next week,

GFS 06z was the first run for a while to really hint at continued trough disruption in deep FI.

Two frontal snow events potentially next week with the possible channel low on UKMO and GFSp 06z and then the sliding low soon after which could bring an amazing winter storm or a horrible wet and windy day, exciting week ahead.

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Penicuikblizzard Experienced

Penicuikblizzard

Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
Posted
14 minutes ago, snowray said:

No, the big crime is that you will be accused of IMBYISM, god forbid, worse that a witch hunt when that starts off on here. You will be accused of all sorts of despicable and selfish heresies and will just have to be fair to ALL areas of the UK and Ireland from now on. Shetland, the borders, don't forget Belfast now, Dublin, Cork, ahhh but Manchester is surrounded by hills to the north and west so will require special tender loving care, and then the Midlands. As we move into the south special attention will have to be given because two flakes of snow in London and everything comes to a stop and makes international headlines in the news of course. Have I forgotten anyone? Oh my, the Cornish, how could I leave the west country out, and Wales, somewhat milder and damp climate at times but can get a dumping every ten years or so, how about Newcastle? I give up!

You know the best thing to do is expect nothing next week, Sunday looks like mainly rain, Tuesday looks too far south and Thursday may end up blowing up too much and end up too far north. That way you wont be disappointed. And if your lucky enough to get a few inches or a dumping, it will be a lovely surprise for you! 

The low on Thursday could do with being a bit further North then a good chunk of the UK will see snow rather than just the midlands south. ⛄️

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:


This is way easier said than done. If the charts are looking good in your area in a reliable timeframe, good luck trying to convince yourself you'll see nothing. :unknw:

Nothing in the reliable yet !  (If it’s showing snow at T12 then I’ll get excited. Can’t afford to waste emotional energy chasing rainbows.)

Edited by Djdazzle
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

The low on Thursday could do with being a bit further North then a good chunk of the UK will see snow rather than just the midlands south. ⛄️

But then us southerners lose out on all the snow!

Problem with these set-ups is that some will win and some will lose and there is just nothing we can do about that. Everything further south means the uk as a whole stays colder for longer but the snow risk is pushed further south.

Edited by Snowman.
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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted
20 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

But then us southerners lose out on all the snow!

Problem with these set-ups is that some will win and some will lose and there is just nothing we can do about that. Everything further south means the uk as a whole stays colder for longer but the snow risk is pushed further south.

Yes and we (most here) don't, as a rule, want a shift to lows tracking further north. The danger then being that everyone might miss out.

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Snow Queen one Rising Star

Snow Queen one

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone
  • Location: Maidstone
Posted

I like risks getting pushed further south.  I am not going to get excited about Tues into weds until maybe Sunday eve as even a small change could make all the difference as to who gets snow and who misses out.  But I am happy with cold temps

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syed2878 Rising Star

syed2878

Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
Posted
1 hour ago, Catacol said:

I hope as many cash in as possible. I’m finding it difficult to get hugely excited at the moment because the pattern relies on the uppers coming in from the NW and maintaining the right mix of cold temps and dew points....and it is such a marginal situation away from high ground that certainty is impossible. We also continue to struggle to get any kind of blocking to the NE to act as a slider platform. 

Plenty of time to see things develop into a notable February, but the resilience of the westerly flow over the atlantic to the point where the Azores high is tending to remain in situ because it cannot get a foothold to the north has been a real eye opener. I continue to think that the pattern has to pop eventually and allow a much colder airmass to develop and give greater certainty to the precipitation forecast, but as we move through the last part of January and into our snowiest month historically the winter so far has flattered to deceive somewhat. We learned a lot from The Beast. We are learning a lot from 2018/19 too particularly perhaps in how to read ensemble means.

The jet stream needs to continue to edge south in this pattern if we are to end up with nationwide snow. Very very fine margins.

  we are also learning a lot from those excellent back ground signals since November we been talking about the signal that failed to produce anything so far  wouldn’t you say 

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
4 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

  we are also learning a lot from those excellent back ground signals since November we been talking about the signal that failed to produce anything so far  wouldn’t you say 

We've been exceptionally unluck but those signals have shown there worth.

Mid December we saw an easterly attempt which ruined by a tropical storm so the big picture was height rises NE and low heights south but small scale one, the hardest to predict didn't go in our favour. 

Much like the failed easterly last week, just too far east by 100 miles on a single low pressure system, that was it. Broad pattern was pretty good but the small one not so much. Just been very unlucky this year but its not worst as we had the beast of 2018 which was an exceptional event. 

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fromey Experienced

fromey

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
Posted (edited)

There are some minor similarity’s to Jan18th 2013, difference being there was a high pressure to our east, and the low was slacker than the coming Tuesdays,the -5 isotherm was then straddling the Center of the country but here in Somerset I got just shy of 10 inches that day.

it went down the wire if my mind serves me right 

Edited by fromey
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
3 minutes ago, TomW said:

GFSPARAUK06_96_25.png

I'm sure many people would be happy with those accumulations! 

Given the degree of excitement, so far this winter, I'd be happy to see any accumulation!:yahoo:

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
5 minutes ago, TomW said:

GFSPARAUK06_96_25.png

I'm sure many people would be happy with those accumulations! 

Happy? I would be doing cartwheels from one end of the pier to the other

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Jackski4 Seasoned

Jackski4

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Posted
1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Happy? I would be doing cartwheels from one end of the pier to the other

Could do with the 10-15cm's being about an inch higher so Essex gets that and not 8-10cms. Think I'm being picky now!

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offerman Seasoned

offerman

Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
Posted
18 minutes ago, fromey said:

There are some minor similarity’s to Jan18th 2013, difference being there was a high pressure to our east, and the low was slacker than the coming Tuesdays,the -5 isotherm was then straddling the Center of the country but here in Somerset I got just shy of 10 inches that day.

it went down the wire if my mind serves me right 

Hi Fromey, 

 

we we have been extremely lucky here. Back in 2007 we had very localised snow while most missed it . Was here Westbury Warminster Trowbridge everywhere else bone dry. 

We then had snow in /08/09/10/13  plus more recent years too . 

We are quite high up as part of or edge of Mendips and Cotswolds so chances of seeing something are really good. 

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

I'm not sure why folk south of M4 want snow.they get a couple of inch and it's like the "day after Tomorrow" on news , strange!!! Anyway need some upgrades on the mo and nhp over the weekend.im not bothered with this marginal snow stuff .let's go 70-80s and all that!!!

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
4 minutes ago, swfc said:

I'm not sure why folk south of M4 want snow.they get a couple of inch and it's like the "day after Tomorrow" on news , strange!!! 

Haven’t you got some pigeons or whippets to feed or something

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Jackski4 Seasoned

Jackski4

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Posted
Just now, Updated_Weather said:

Not long til 12z runs.. Whose excited? Nervous?

What do we want to see? Further north? South! Take your pick!

Nervous is an understatement. For me here in the SE, pretty much as you were from GFSpara, maybe a little further south would be better because that would keep the southern half of the country cold and give us a right dumping still 

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Haven’t you got some pigeons or whippets to feed or something

!! I have an African grey and an American bulldog.google it and there will be pics for you!!!

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Updated_Weather Seasoned

Updated_Weather

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Posted
Just now, Jackski4 said:

Nervous is an understatement. For me here in the SE, pretty much as you were from GFSpara, maybe a little further south would be better because that would keep the southern half of the country cold and give us a right dumping still 

Still a few people expect it to go to france, wouldn't be good for anyone tbh.. Hopefully we hit potluck!

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Jackski4 Seasoned

Jackski4

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Posted
1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

Still a few people expect it to go to france, wouldn't be good for anyone tbh.. Hopefully we hit potluck!

Just hope it doesn't blow up and move north. 

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