Cold hunt - models and chat

[Scandinavian High.]

All of southern England buried on this run heavy  persistent snow but not nailed on yet a slight movement with the low north to south could bring other parts of uk in to snow..

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure how it manages it looking at the pressure chart, maybe the resolution of the Graphics makes it look that way.

Here are the higher resolution charts from the GFSP.

[kold weather]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

In respect of the day 6 system, look at where the para now has the snow .....compare to yesterday ....it’s been small increments but it’s pretty well reached the ec solution which has itself corrected  south but not nearly as far as gfsp ....no model right but ec closer to the mark in the 5/8 day timeframe ......of course this is based on where the models currently sit. 

Yeah closer for the Wednesday one, though still too deep IMO (though I acknowledge what you said) which obviously would help places further south.

Interestingly the ECM bafely does anything with the LP on Tuesday. Its very much on one end of the range of models (probably at the bottom) ICON 06z and GEM don;'t have much of a surface reflection but do have decent precip.

So on Tuesday low, its very much at the bottom end...a few of the GFS ensembles on the other hand go pretty ballistic with a full blown blizzard. The truth is likely inbetween.

PS - GFS ensembles look a little south of where the 00z run had the low, broadly similar strength, maybe more runs with slightly higher pressure?

Edited January 26, 2019 by kold weather

[swfc]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes, track of this system is going to chop and change..

Watching brief for me..

Will you be in full Rambo gear locked and loaded NW!!!

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Here are the higher resolution charts from the GFSP.

If these could get to t6 then that would be wonderful. 

[MattStoke]

Worse for southern and central areas of England and for Wales on the GFSP with regards to Thursday’s system. A wintry mix.

Snow for Northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Will change many times between now and then, of course. Especially given that even Tuesday is far from resolved.

Edited January 26, 2019 by MattStoke

[SMU]

Yes we have only been been here a few times in the last 10 years & most / nearly all have drifted away south-

The most recent touch down was March 13 for the extreme south & the channel Isl..

Either way it looks good at this stage....

[Jackski4]

Looking VERY good for the southern half of England and the south east.. Still plenty of time for it to go wrong but the more runs we see like this over the next few runs, the more confidence will grow!

[kold weather]

Definate a north trend on that O for Tuesday, which I think may continue a little further yet as the models key into a stronger system. I expect it to be broadly similar to then UKMO/GFS FV3, but a little further north , also may be VERY marginal by the coast IF that does happen. Isn't showing on the models yet however bar maybe 2-3 ensemble members.

Matt - to be honest, if we get snow on Tuesday, you northern lot are welcome to your dumping of snow then.

Steve - I think this will be the rare exception where it will trend ever more northwards + stronger. That's what happened with this weekends LP for example.

Edited January 26, 2019 by kold weather

[Jackski4]

As for Thursday. Much more marginal for the south/se some places could get snow some places not too far away could get cold rain. Plenty of time for it to work in our favour though 

[Craigers]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Definate a north trend on that O for Tuesday, which I think may continue a little further yet as the models key into a stronger system. I expect it to be broadly similar to then UKMO/GFS FV3, but a little further north , also may be VERY marginal by the coast IF that does happen. Isn't showing on the models yet however bar maybe 2-3 ensemble members.

Could this be similar to the 25th January 1995 event?

[StingJet]

19 minutes ago, StingJet said:

Agreed BA Looks like an anomalous chart, it will no doubt resolve itself on the next update. What is more disturbing for me is the Storm System tracking east across Scotland today to be centred just off the ne coast of England 06z tomorrow , Severe wind warnings in force for NI, Wales and the Sw, yet no mention of the East Coast of England tomorrow, contrary to Met Office Shipping forecast and Inshore Waters forecast which has the wind up at F8-F10 down the eastern seaboard, with the Wash to Cromer being in direct line of fire for the NNW flow, no hunt for cold there , it will be bitter with the wind chill well below zero.

I now stand corrected Met Office @ 10:56 updated their Severe Weather Wind Warning to include the East of England for tomorrow

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes we have only been been here a few times in the last 10 years & most / nearly all have drifted away south-

The most recent touch down was March 13 for the extreme south & the channel Isl..

Either way it looks good at this stage....

What about last year (mid December) that was a nail biting biting few days for most. That system shifted about 50 miles south each day in the 4 day run up, what looked like a north event ended up being M4 to midlands event. Gave about 10-15cm to some areas. We haven’t seen a gradual shift south yet, it’s still drifting north and south with each run. Sweet spot probably around M4 line IMO

[BlackburnChris]

P/V getting squeezed in FI due to rising pressure to our East

[Jackski4]

12zs's are going to be VERY interesting today in just a few hours. I think we really could be onto something mid-long term too!

[snowice]

13 minutes ago, swfc said:

Will you be in full Rambo gear locked and loaded NW!!!

Yes he is getting ready. 

[SMU]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

What about last year (mid December) that was a nail biting biting few days for most. That system shifted about 50 miles south each day in the 4 day run up, what looked like a north event ended up being M4 to midlands event. Gave about 10-15cm to some areas. We haven’t seen a gradual shift south yet, it’s still drifting north and south with each run. Sweet spot probably around M4 line IMO

I dont remember

What was the date?

[Spah1]

Can we just all agree that the track of the low next week will change every run so I don’t have to read every post saying ‘subject to change’ etc. 

People are scared to death to analyse a chart in the anticipation someone will tell them it may change on the next run. 

WE ALL KNOW IT WILL CHANGE RUN TO RUN. 

We don’t have to add that caveat to every dam post. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

I dont remember

What was the date?

Last winter. 10th (ish) Dec

Edited January 26, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[chionomaniac]

Wow. I’ve managed to read 7 pages without removing a post. Well done all, this is how the more relaxed thread should be. Let’s see if we can double that!

[IDO]

10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Both Tuesdays and Wednesdays low are all over the shop on the ensembles, there really is very little agreement within the models. Deeper low is favoured but there is pretty no run that agrees with the previous one so its not much use other than to show the spread of options!

If we do get a deep low, I hope its not one of those bowling ball types, a more flattened low would do us down in the south (esp south-east) a world of good.

Yes, hard to argue that those two lows causing chaos on the GEFS; pressure chart highlights:

Cross-model and inter-model variation, so am a little surprised ECM hasn't shown a bit more entropy, instead, the op tending to the warmest solution last few runs?

Ensembles:

Up to 50% from 35% chance of snow London, back edge tomorrow morning; suspect percentage increase further north, compared 0z.

Consistent 60-70% both 0z and 06z for snow from the first low Tuesday.

Too far out for consistency re Thursday low due to timing issues. But the opportunity remains good.

A reasonable trend, but fine margins all the same.

[Wilxy]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

I dont remember

What was the date?

10th December

[swfc]

Slightly off topic lol but parra shows zero blocking in fi.standard areas of low pressure moving east.could all change granted but it's there on the run.wonder when the great charts will pop up ?

[Mike Poole]

ARPEGE take on Tuesday nights low at T96, 0z run:

850s good for marginal snow, this could be a great event for parts of the country yet to be determined.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

What about last year (mid December) that was a nail biting biting few days for most. That system shifted about 50 miles south each day in the 4 day run up, what looked like a north event ended up being M4 to midlands event. Gave about 10-15cm to some areas. We haven’t seen a gradual shift south yet, it’s still drifting north and south with each run. Sweet spot probably around M4 line IMO

Unreal few days, and great result for this location, tracked near perfect, perhaps 20 miles further South than the main hit areas the W Midlands, but amazing slider