Cold hunt - models and chat

[swfc]

So barring a low bringing possible snow next week anyone got any thoughts on the models going forward???

[Wilxy]

Wow!

[Ice Day]

GFSP is blowing up the channel runner at 90 - *could* be a lot of snow off that?

 

[MattStoke]

Definite shift north of Tuesday’s low on the GFSP. Wintry precipitation for much of England and Wales. 

[shaky]

Most of england gets clobbered at 84 hours by snow!!midlands and south get hammered!

Should be viewable on euro4 this time tomorrow!

Edited January 26, 2019 by shaky

[Chris101]

12 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

A lot of annoying and unhelpful imbyism.

Does start to seem a bit that way, but Its hard not to look like that when we actually get something into a range where we can start modelling features with a bit of finer detail.

[Ben Sainsbury]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Most of england gets clobbered at 84 hours by snow!!midlands and south get hammered!

Widespread 10-15cm on that run easily!

 

[Djdazzle]

It’s going to be a nightmare in here over the next few days, with people reacting to tiny differences in the track of the low which could make the difference between some potentially disruptive snow to a foul cold rain fest!

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Definite shift north of Tuesday’s low on the GFSP. Wintry precipitation for much of England and Wales. 

And the good thing is, the IMBY posts are not actually going to infuriate anyone else, its very rare when a big shift North of a channel runner gets far enough North to put me in the firing line, without taking S England out of it, if anything its an upgrade for the South as well as the PPN is heavier!

Edited January 26, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[That ECM]

Just now, shaky said:

Most of england gets clobbered at 84 hours by snow!!midlands and south get hammered!

You are right looking at the chart but it will change so all for fun. And it’s fun to have these possibilities and makes model viewing at its best

[Ben Sainsbury]

GFS Parallel a positive step forward on the 6z, low is 5mb shallower and is further south, almost like a jelly bean shape at T120!

Edited January 26, 2019 by Ben Sainsbury

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

It’s going to be a nightmare in here over the next few days, with people reacting to tiny differences in the track of the low which could make the difference between some potentially disruptive snow to a foul cold rain fest!

Yes, track of this system is going to chop and change..

Watching brief for me..

Edited January 26, 2019 by northwestsnow

[kold weather]

9 minutes ago, chris78 said:

Of course ppl will be more interested in their own areas, but either keep that to the regional thread or state that a comment regress to a specific area.  Too many comments yesterday said things like much better run, or, might in the right direction, when they clearly represented downgrades for many areas.

I personally I always try and explain why its a good run for some/not for others. Hard to do.

Anyway the GFS ensembles are quite the mess still, I'd argue still more do deepen the low, but there isn't hardly any agreement on the angle, shape, size, depth of the LP, etc and that makes a big difference.

Also MORE agreement on a channel low forming, maybe also nudging the precip into the S.Midlands on some runs thanks to a stronger low. I think this will be stronger and north of where the op GFS/ECM are expecting. Indeed it MAY even introduce some real marginality onto the south coast...

Edited January 26, 2019 by kold weather

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

4 minutes ago, swfc said:

So barring a low bringing possible snow next week anyone got any thoughts on the models going forward???

I would suggest the Meto extended outlook has it covered looking at this morning's model runs.

It's almost as if they know what they are talking about!  

Seriously though everything is pointing towards a more Southerly tracking jet as time goes on with the snow line being dragged further South with time (good for us Yorkshire based folk no doubt).  That could / should then pave the way for some Northern blocking showing up in the 10-14 day range.

Just my two penneth worth anyway.....

[StingJet]

48 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Am I invisible ????

i believe that fax is incorrect as it has identical placement of all pressure centres as per the T96 from last night 

Agreed BA Looks like an anomalous chart, it will no doubt resolve itself on the next update. What is more disturbing for me is the Storm System tracking east across Scotland today to be centred just off the ne coast of England 06z tomorrow , Severe wind warnings in force for NI, Wales and the Sw, yet no mention of the East Coast of England tomorrow, contrary to Met Office Shipping forecast and Inshore Waters forecast which has the wind up at F8-F10 down the eastern seaboard, with the Wash to Cromer being in direct line of fire for the NNW flow, no hunt for cold there , it will be bitter with the wind chill well below zero.

[Mike Poole]

FV3 superb at T84 for the south, here

Illustrative snow depth at just T96

And yet we know there is still massive uncertainty even at this range.  12z runs should be fascinating!

[swfc]

9 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

It’s going to be a nightmare in here over the next few days, with people reacting to tiny differences in the track of the low which could make the difference between some potentially disruptive snow to a foul cold rain fest!

Yep!!!shows how poor things have become but hey ho.it will become low gate and "is it 50 miles lower or higher "on every run using regional threads would help snow ete 

Edited January 26, 2019 by swfc

[feb1991blizzard]

Scrap that last post, its just a continuation of the Showers further North, the runner is still a shortwave in the channel - i thought by the PPN chart the whole thing had been blown up.

[bluearmy]

In respect of the day 6 system, look at where the para now has the snow .....compare to yesterday ....it’s been small increments but it’s pretty well reached the ec solution which has itself corrected  south but not nearly as far as gfsp ....no model right but ec closer to the mark in the 5/8 day timeframe ......of course this is based on where the models currently sit. 

[Snowjokes92]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And the good thing is, the IMBY posts are not actually going to infuriate anyone else, its very rare when a big shift North of a channel runner gets far enough North to put me in the firing line, without taking S England out of it, if anything its an upgrade for the South as well as the PPN is heavier!

 

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And the good thing is, the IMBY posts are not actually going to infuriate anyone else, its very rare when a big shift North of a channel runner gets far enough North to put me in the firing line, without taking S England out of it, if anything its an upgrade for the South as well as the PPN is heavier!

Its a rare site about channel low bringing snow southern northern england indeed. Parts of manchester and leeds could do well if the 6z is to be believed for tuesday and definetly end of the week

[Stuie]

Big dive South for the jet stream at the end of the week.

[Methuselah]

21 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

A lot of annoying and unhelpful imbyism.

Imbyism doesn't bother me at all, Matt: if JoefromLeeds posts from his own perspective, what's the problem? I would be more apt to worry, should he spend all his time discussing possible snow-depths for Beccles!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Snowjokes92 said:

 

Its a rare site about channel low bringing snow southern northern england indeed. Parts of manchester and leeds could do well if the 6z is to be believed for tuesday and definetly end of the week

Not sure how it manages it looking at the pressure chart, maybe the resolution of the Graphics makes it look that way.

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes, track of this system is gping to chop and change..

Watching brief for me..

Both Tuesdays and Wednesdays low are all over the shop on the ensembles, there really is very little agreement within the models. Deeper low is favoured but there is pretty no run that agrees with the previous one so its not much use other than to show the spread of options!

If we do get a deep low, I hope its not one of those bowling ball types, a more flattened low would do us down in the south (esp south-east) a world of good.

[MattStoke]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

Imbyism doesn't bother me at all, Matt: if JoefromLeeds posts from his own perspective, what's the problem? I would be more apt to worry, should he spend all his time discussing possible snow-depths for Beccles!

No problem with it if people are clear that they are talking about their area. It’s when people just post that a run looks bad, based on their own area but not stating so, that it is annoying and unhelpful, as it suggests they mean the whole of the UK. If they were to say, for example, ‘Great/Bad run for the south’ then that would be more clear.