Cold hunt - models and chat

[Jackski4]

Just now, shaky said:

Think it might have trended south steve but not by much especially considering how south you are lol!!

Still good for Essex. I'm not complaining

[Scandinavian High.]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The ICON 00z was very similar to the GFS p ( & probably the UKMO ) for southern snow

here is the T90 chart 00z just waiting for the 06z

That looks fantastic across South East England heavy snow fall still lot more changes to Come i would expect.

[IDO]

The ICON brings that snow into the UK 6 hours earlier:

Compared to the 0z.

[DR(S)NO]

22 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

It will definately be the 2nd one knowing our luck 

This set up and who is in what camp etc reminds me of a 8 runner Handicap Chase at Haydock

2 have fallen, 2 are pulled up and 4 are left with 3 Fences to go, the even money shot and the 2/1 and 5/2 are clear from the 4th horse who is 66/1

At the last the Fav falls brings down the other 2 and the 66/1 shot is the only finisher

Sounds like the winter to a tee - Haha

I actually had a fiver on that race Paul

[MattStoke]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Adjusting my snowline down to derby across to stoke .....possibly a bit of a big jump down from Sheffield but you can see the trend currently is to correct south each run. 

Note the eps mean uppers at day 7 yesterday morning had the -4 c isotherm across the Scottish Borders - this mornings run across the midlands 

undoubdly correcting south but given the persistence of the ec op to phase the upper troughs and blow up the low, we are struggling 

If you could adjust the snow line to just south of Longton, Stoke-on-Trent, that would be appreciated.

[SMU]

Updated ICON

heavy snow for the SE - pity its T84 ish

[kold weather]

Mind you the higher resolution 7km ICON looks a lot better than the broader resolution version. The high resolution has a total snow event. Still only 1-3cms generally on it though but better than the 00z ECM by a long way which has more or less 0.

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Updated ICON

heavy snow for the SE - pity its T84 ish

lol BANK! Hate to be selfish but this run is looking nice for the SE

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Updated ICON

heavy snow for the SE - pity its T84 ish

Steve, snow cover may prove to be important for Wednesday/Thursday, any little extra added coldness we can gain will help IF the synoptics do go against jus down here.

[bluearmy]

Annoyingly the latest T84 FAX is dodgy so we can’t see latest human thoughts from Exeter 

[knocker]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Annoyingly the latest T84 FAX is dodgy so we can’t see latest human thoughts from Exeter 

What do you mean by dodgy blue?

[SMU]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Steve, snow cover may prove to be important for Wednesday/Thursday, any little extra added coldness we can gain will help IF the synoptics do go against jus down here.

6-7cm over the downs !

[Lampostwatcher]

Boomtastic runs this morning from 2 of 3 of the best model s we have on show ECM not joining in the fun 

 

But all creeping into the reliable t90 and not 10 days away 

Snow chances for all of the uk 

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

lol BANK! Hate to be selfish but this run is looking nice for the SE

Sod it! Not one single graphic has so much as a single snowflake falling on the Triangle of Doom!

[tight isobar]

Large gains on the snow line/lines this morn...

May the trend continue...

As expected!!!

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Sod it! Not one single graphic has so much as a single snowflake falling on the Triangle of Doom!

I'll sent it your way once I have my 25cms

[Bedfordblues73]

Rest assured the Wokingham snow shield be up and running next week ..

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Large gains on the snow line/lines this morn...

May the trend continue...

As expected!!!

Morning TI.you speak of trends?I can't see anything special on the nhp to be honest bringing anything but short transient snow at best given temps and synoptics

[IDO]

GFS op gives a chance for back edge snow as the front slips south east during Sunday morning:

[shaky]

Dont expect anything special from gfs this next run!!probably look like the ecm more than anything but would love to be proved wrong!!no change so far at 72 hours as far as i can see!

[Stu_London]

42 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

It will definately be the 2nd one knowing our luck 

This set up and who is in what camp etc reminds me of a 8 runner Handicap Chase at Haydock

2 have fallen, 2 are pulled up and 4 are left with 3 Fences to go, the even money shot and the 2/1 and 5/2 are clear from the 4th horse who is 66/1

At the last the Fav falls brings down the other 2 and the 66/1 shot is the only finisher

Sounds like the winter to a tee - Haha

Spot on Paul

Whatever can go wrong - inevitably does when it comes to snow in the UK

Obviously some very high reward model porn this morning - but massive risks. 

[Stu_London]

35 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yeah the 06z ICON won't be all that great unfortunately, but things are going to swing around still plenty yet!

Also would be fair to say the ICON has been shifting every single run recently.

The ICON is like one of those annoying people on the Motorway that keep changing lanes hoping to gain a car length or two when there is heavy traffic.

[Jackski4]

Crucial time for the 6z right now. Let's see!

[kold weather]

Hmmm 84hrs is a little close to my liking with regards to it getting absorbed into the upper low to our NE and that would possibly throw a huge curveball into the situation.

 

[Stu_London]

7 minutes ago, IDO said:

GFS op gives a chance for back edge snow as the front slips south east during Sunday morning:

Probably more at elevation given the uppers and the wind direction.