Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
12 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Looks ok but it’s still cold rain unfortunately 

3491797D-D223-433C-BE07-B2C6CF1B356D.png

94224382-D1CC-46ED-A725-DFF7858E9FBB.png

Maybe not looking good for snow at that range but subject to change that’s a very good chart because that is going along the lines of the meto talk earlier lows dropping south Maybe picking up more of an easterly flow and increaseing snow risk .

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
19 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

It’s been mentioned already but the met mentioning the lows going down into the Bay of Biscay might of been one hell off a good call . It was kinda strange them mentioning that in there update . Let’s hope there bang on . 

The gfs 18z is cold from Sunday until at least the following Sunday. I’m in shock too . Wasn’t exspecting that at all . ??

Sunday to Sunday 850s below

F784AE94-6176-4BCF-8DFF-254D8626CD21.png

69E963DC-207F-4A83-A753-BEE370393976.png

0E8A2E66-DB03-4899-A3D3-748AEC1EB93C.png

A70D07C2-7275-47A9-A1A7-7E26F45474E1.png

9627DCFC-A1C4-432F-8308-656D53D2E816.png

BDF36615-E7CA-47B7-A430-F13778297A55.png

361FD807-7CFE-462F-90B2-89057B8DCD55.png

2DCE3611-0CDF-40CE-9D44-409BE9045AE2.png

Last week of January and first week of February, peak of winter, if we want to get something memorable, now is the ideal time, without any of that drip, drip, drip.:cold:

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Just now, MagicBat said:

The BBC have to be super reserved with their weather forecast. It's okay for us with the insight. But the general public go into melt down. They will cancel appointments, flights, etc....

 

Tuesday is looking good for the South. Just hope their isn't too much warmer air around that low. As it could be a sleet mix for the South....

Whilst I understand they have to be strict and not hyperbole or scare the public (not like any model is showing anything that way atm)  It still isn't going to be mild basing of latest output.. 18z has 4'c as max on friday next week?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

The Control run has the low further south at 156.  Just saying!

image.thumb.png.e66b1714dbb961b9db0d13d1f310509c.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
10 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Aggresive

No, just pointing out a post that was 100% incorrect

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

BBC weather forecasts and forecasters are not discussing the models. Try the media thread- it is but 2 clicks away

edit and if that is beyond anyone then you can click all you like but won’t be able to post.

Edited by chionomaniac
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

The Control run has the low further south at 156.  Just saying!

image.thumb.png.e66b1714dbb961b9db0d13d1f310509c.png

Biscay Low a la met office?

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
12 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

@ 288 hours? Really?

 

This thread sometimes. ?‍♂️

Just discussing the models... it’s the model discussion thread after all. I was responding to another post about that time frame by saying it looks ok, but it delivers cold rain. Appolagies if that takes the thread away from what you believe it should be about ??‍♂️

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Control goes south aswell!!big upgrades so far!!fv3 looks like a monkey nut low again around the states!!

I’ve seen it all today 

squirrel nuts now monkey nuts

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

it is but 2 clicks away

Love actually. Wrapping the mistress Christmas present by Rowan Atkinson in Halfords.... Love that bit! 

Anyway, the Fi starts at 120/96 in small terms but in reality it has a huge knock on effect!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
2 minutes ago, kumquat said:

Biscay Low a la met office?

Yep, and still looking good at 180

image.thumb.png.45253fe346b17434ae6878f75d10c5cb.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.
5 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

The Control run has the low further south at 156.  Just saying!

image.thumb.png.e66b1714dbb961b9db0d13d1f310509c.png

That looks like a duck looking over it’s shoulder, when the models show animal patterns snow usually follows, perhaps less scientific than some methods, but quite possibly equally as effective.

Edited by Bazray
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
2 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

No, just pointing out a post that was 100% incorrect

just point out with a friendly bit of help then......  thats how we all learn 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Just now, Bazray said:

That looks like a duck looking over it’s shoulder, when the models show animal patterns snow follow, perhaps less scientific than some methods, but quite possibly equally as effective.

Oh my god, yes I see the duck! It's a sign!

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
22 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

It's rolling out now, should be finished about 11:45pm

Its been stuck at T78 for ages, just gone to T84 so running very late tonight...again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.
Just now, Updated_Weather said:

Oh my god, yes I see the duck! It's a sign!

Exactly, look at my profile picture, that was a wolf, and we got copious amounts of snow shortly afterwards.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Just discussing the models... it’s the model discussion thread after all. I was responding to another post about that time frame by saying it looks ok, but it delivers cold rain. Appolagies if that takes the thread away from what you believe it should be about ??‍♂️

Fair play. You can comment on anything you want, but don't expect to be called out on a very unlikely fruition of the chart you posted!!! Oiche mhaith!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

Complete opposite of this time last week

its as as if a reversal or ssw has happened 

Fancy that

all those back ground signals

model reading can be a fickle hobby

“you guys” 

(big lessons could be learnt here)

just saying

Edited by snowbob
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
4 minutes ago, edo said:

just point out with a friendly bit of help then......  thats how we all learn 

There is a learning section here on the site. Apologies if I offended, it was 100% incorrect though.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
2 minutes ago, snowray said:

Its been stuck at T78 for ages, just gone to T84 so running very late tonight...again.

The GFSP runs in a strange way.  It goes to 78 and stops for 15 minutes, then runs out to about 180 and does the same again.  Not sure why but that's what it does?!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...