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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

The highlighted snaps note...

The underside of the jump..

With lp-having a leapfrog like effect..

To down southerly..

Its a notion imo a good guide-to southerly track and trace!!!

Edit i have mixed the data snaps 4 reason..of process/progress!!.

@cut off points!!

Screenshot_2019-01-25-22-00-56.png

gfs-0-96 (1).png

Screenshot_2019-01-25-18-22-51.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Here we go then, the 120 comparisons for the 'big 3' - clearly, nothing is settled yet. I'm liking the GFS solution so far.

GFS image.thumb.png.41ad743e5c466457ce855a247615c322.png  ECM image.thumb.png.d2dd1891c424399fca0c191455078abe.png UKMO image.thumb.png.130c1d00a01871d60c6e2500c9616dd0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

So much better! But very different, so caution urged... GFS 18z has led us astray too many times  

CF29BCFD-6CC5-4B13-B67C-B8269B55DCEB.png

The MetO have also mentioned the southerly tracking lows crossing the Bay of Biscay so maybe some weight in these Synoptics ?

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

The MetO have also mentioned the southerly tracking lows crossing the Bay of Biscay so maybe some weight in these Synoptics ?

Quite possibly & we should all remember that whilst these lows might track quite far south, there will be numerous small features forming within this polar air bringing a few surprises at short notice. A small feature when areas of the SE last week brought to 6-7cm in places. If we see several of these move through the UK next week who knows...!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Very different pattern but not very snowy verbatim compared to many other runs across the country, as a southerner I'd perfer something a little more active as that low still won't cut it down here despite the improvement.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
1 minute ago, Banbury said:

Far different from the 12z, you have to wonder ……………...in saying that N Miller @21:55 didn't have a clue about Tuesday 

I have said it time and time again today this scenario that is playing out can see 50mile changes north or south at +24 so anything beyond +72 is FI

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
On 24/01/2019 at 21:35, damianslaw said:

 

In my last post - I dismissed the chances of a bowling low scenario next week,and some of the recent model outputs are showing this - sudden short term developments will catch the models put. Look at how events have changed last 24 hours or so, we were expecting a single low feature to have anchored through UK by tomorrow, alas said low has split.. delaying the cold northerly shot until Sunday - so no surprise to see the models showing energy splitting off from the trough, all helped by energy spilling out from the candian PV lobe - and crucially the track of the jetstream. The synoptic for next week - waves of splitting energy from off the trough feeding into iself - it shouts slider low territory, secondary low development territory sliding SE into Europe. You would need a major height build to our west ridging through mid atlantic to get the large bowling low scenario just to our west - this can't happen because of the energy off the eastern USA seaboard.. azores heights are sinking to our south.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Very different pattern but not very snowy verbatim compared to many other runs across the country, as a southerner I'd perfer something a little more active as that low still won't cut it down here despite the improvement.

You always come in here and even things out about things not being good enough..

Don't worry, I know you're being realisitc

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Second part of shortwave coming through now!!watch it explode!!

Even this shortwave is tracking southwards.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Key chart pub runT138, compared to UKMO T144 (12z)

image.thumb.jpg.f63b85e5aa66d4c718b2556facf705da.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.c7c62cf8b2a81e4fefa9ed98a4868d0c.jpg

Doesnt phase the lows!  Really interesting to see where this run goes from here!

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
4 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Far different from the 12z, you have to wonder ……………...in saying that N Miller @21:55 didn't have a clue about Tuesday 

But he did say at the end “ turning mild by the end of the week” surely if Tuesday isn’t settled the end of the week is up for grabs 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Gonna be a cracker..

2nd phase of the nor east feature..

Then the southerly track...gaines!!!

As the  feature...diss-stabilises

gfs-0-138 (1).png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Very different pattern but not very snowy verbatim compared to many other runs across the country, as a southerner I'd perfer something a little more active as that low still won't cut it down here despite the improvement.

Ay, thinking about Cheshire Gap chances too, winds too westerly on 18Z, Stockport is to get pasted

gfs-0-102.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Just now, Updated_Weather said:

You always come in here and even things out about things not being good enough..

Don't worry, I know you're being realisitc

It's very good for most, just down here any major channel based airflow is a big issue, probably not too much an issue further inland.

Plus, when I see some models give 6 inches and the GFS gives light wintery showers...

Of course the flow won't be as true as it is on the GFS and there would be issues.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
7 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Old run...………....wait for the next 

18z showing west is best, NW, Wales, west country doing particularly well, look at all that snow just clipping the south coast, seen that so many times before, come on, further north please! 

Drives me mad this further north, further south, further north business!

96-574UK.gif

102-574UK.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Nothing agreed yet, huge differences at just 144 - place your bets?

GFS image.thumb.png.fe80a023de074100e09100ba487c179b.png ECM image.thumb.png.198553776b7e21800a2ea78054182f8d.png UK image.thumb.png.75556df76ccb6fb7a1c86fa26d2350e2.png

image.png

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