Cold hunt - models and chat

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 hour ago, abbie123 said:

Day 4 isn’t even sorted yet let alone day 10 models seem to be all over the place..

Exactly! It’s best to just enjoy the wintry weather coming for some next week and take the charts as they come. Anything beyond 96hrs is open to flip-flopping.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

JMA banging the drum so hard it risks perforating it, here T192

The volatility at the moment suggests nothing beyond day 6 is on or off the table.  Keep the faith folks for at least another week or 10 days 

If EC looks like that come 00z run there will be some seriously happy campers in here!

[northwestsnow]

18Z could give us a clue of the ICON is moving in the correct direction..

 

[shaky]

Seen enough of the icon to know this slider scenario aint over!!

[snowbob]

Just now, shaky said:

Seen enough of the icon to know this slider scenario aint over!!

It won’t be until the day mate

dont stress over it

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

If EC looks like that come 00z run there will be some seriously happy campers in here!

Can we give it until 12z to smell the coffee...0z runs not gone well this year so far!

Model agreement tomorrow afternoon on a major cold outbreak - I like!

[Leon1]

23 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

ICON 18z bringing a snow event as a front moves eastwards at T90, this bringing the goodies to Midlands southwards. Another small slider event at T114, south of the M4 only.

That was satisfying.

[onepingonly]

GSFP currently has my area down for ~12 hours of heavy snowfall Tues so it's only downhill from here. I'll be happy with a few flakes...

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

@Steve Murr what’s your current gut feeling on the position of that low on Tues? Mine is it will go too far south for most? Do you think the UKMO would bring much of southern counties into play?

The M4 corridor could be the sweet spot

[JeffC]

25 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

So to the ICON, and first up T63, a purple Scrappy Doo:

Second one this year by my reckoning.  Need to check with NOAA whether this is the first winter with two Scrappy Doo vortices...get back to you on that!  I can't find out how this might affect the NAO index, might need to downwell a bit I would suggest!

If you ask me over half the output this year might as well have been out of the mystery machine!

[snowray]

15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

JMA banging the drum so hard it risks perforating it, here T192

Consistency from this model at least!

The volatility at the moment suggests nothing beyond day 6 is on or off the table.  Keep the faith folks for at least another week or 10 days 

Relief......The JMA is finally out, better late than never..... and it's good, the trend setter is back, very good omen!

Makes a change that we get the colder air and its mild to our east and south I must say! Icon looking ok too, I'm a lot happier now.

Edited January 25, 2019 by snowray

[tight isobar]

12 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The M4 corridor could be the sweet spot

Indeed and we have gain on such..

Could be an old classic..that i have personaly experienced...from time 2 time in my 43-yrs..

Obviously not on that scale...

But living just north of the corridor..and edging bucks...

We do rather well...

'On the whole'..

Edit an pls dont look at my prof back ground pic and with my 2 eldest daughters and say WOW 43...

ITS GOOD LIVING

Edited January 25, 2019 by tight isobar

[shaky]

Gfs looking different already around the states!!

[northwestsnow]

18Z looking better to me at 78..

Looking at the low coming across the Atlantic, meantime a cold north westerly about to sweep snow showers into the UK..

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

I have noticed recently that the ECM op runs are continually being churned out as mild outliers in the latter stages (at least 850s wise).  I wonder if there is a reason for this?  Its certainly doing nothing for the nerves of this skittish thread!

However as somebody who doesn't ride the rollercoaster of emotions at each stage of every op run I am just fascinated to see how next week pans out.  The track and shape of the lows barrelling in next week will change every 6 hours over the next few days as will the mood of the thread so good luck mods!

I personally think us coldies are in the best position we have been in all Winter for no other reason than today's Meto extended outlook which is very bullish for cold when they have not been particularly confident thus far this Winter.

The ICON 18z looks decent so let's hope we can keep the upbeat mood going with the pub run!   

Edited January 25, 2019 by Kentish Snowman

[Weathizard]

Interestingly a considerable amount less energy going into that low that splits off at day 3/4

[shaky]

Massive difference at 96 hours!!gfs splits the satanic low south west of greenland!!

[ALL ABOARD]

T+96 and the low has separated into two. Looking much better. 

[Snowman.]

Oh hello

No phasing yet. Looks like we're truly on this roller coastern for the long term.

Edited January 25, 2019 by Snowman.

[snowray]

Fax charts out....getting closer to the south that little low at T96, south of the M4 could get lucky!

[shaky]

Completely splits it!!the signs were there on the ecm!maybe metoffice are onto something here!!

[Snowman.]

This run is crazy! Big difference at such an early timeframe.

[Banbury]

22 minutes ago, nicktabs said:

GSFP currently has my area down for ~12 hours of heavy snowfall Tues so it's only downhill from here. I'll be happy with a few flakes...

Old run...………....wait for the next 

[northwestsnow]

850S 108hrs

18z

12z 

[Weathizard]

So much better! But very different, so caution urged... GFS 18z has led us astray too many times