Cold hunt - models and chat

[KTtom]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not really .....unless they gave evidence to back up their pov then they are just going on stats .....

the eps are more snowy by day 6 than any run thus far this winter .....assume there must be a fair number of members south or less developed as per the gfsp 

Ok, fair comment, my point being some one with 1 post should not be intimidated by challenging someone with 10,000 posts and 35,000 likes....that's what I was getting at...anyway, back to topic...

[Rambo]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not really .....unless they gave evidence to back up their pov then they are just going on stats .....

I wouldn't normally comment, mostly as my opinion means far less than the more knowledgeable people here, but I've noticed this soooo much on here.

People say "It'll be a boring winter as normal bla bla bla", and then sometime in the future they'll appear and say "I told you so...neerrrr".....but all they're doing is playing the odds. 

[Snowman.]

ANYWAYYY moving on to actual model talk instead of general bickering which just makes the mods life hell.

 

The 216 and 240 mean go with my thinking for Feb

Trough sinking SE as it runs into the heights NE which pulls that block east. Whether that leads to narnia later in Feb is to be discussed however I wouldn't say no to it yet..

Broadly in agreement with the GEFS, Look forward to those clusters later on wouldn't surprise me if one showed stretching heights from Greenland to Scandi, unlikely to be cold as this time but that old saying we all hate... get the block in place and the cold will follow! But in Feb it better be bloody fast!

 

Edited January 25, 2019 by Snowman.

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, KTtom said:

This is what really peeves me about this site...how dare you question the weather mafia with 000's posts...it's a joke...the best forecasters so far this winter are the ones who predicted run of the mill snowless winter, not the rampers. TEITS is 100 % entitled to say his bit...and I actually agree with him but why can't someone challenge him without getting slated? 

 

 

You are kind of contradicting your argument though, as its the background signals that pointed to a cold last 2 months of winter, TEITS was questioning those. Im not taking sides btw, just pointing it out.

[coldie]

5 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening All! Some very volatile weather on the way, Watch this space....

Will the chocolate teapot freeze or melt? Stay tuned...

[Rambo]

2 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

nothing unusual...USA is a big place so there will always be storms and snow in the winter months... but like i said December was very mild across the US

I knew I should of worded that better, so my fault really, but I kinda clumped it all in with what is currently forecast for the deep cold to hit USA, if it hasnt already.

[Mapantz]

Let's move on... please?!

[sunnijim]

I think the big three models maybe over reacting to a signal in blowing up Thursdays Low.

How often do we see a feature crossing the UK as modeled this far out at this depth?

I still see some big changes to output over the weekend.

Very often these features get 'watered down' as we get closer to the timeframe, but if this is the case this time,where do we go?

Could be quite dramatic imo.

[Singularity]

Bit weird how the ensembles past D6 keep reflecting the tropical forcing much better than the deterministic runs - it’s as if the latter are also going off on one with the MJO and such!

I think there’s a good chance that the big Thu-Fri low only temporarily organises before elongating again in a manner that reduces the extent to which a warm sector is driven across the UK and NE Europe. Big knock-on effects if so.

Most peculiar of all model behaviour has been ECM’s building of heights across mainland Europe from the Azores High. Total contradiction of the tropical forcing there! To be frank I’m struggling to conceive what’s steering the model in that direction.

[Man With Beard]

13 minutes ago, KTtom said:

This is what really peeves me about this site...how dare you question the weather mafia with 000's posts...it's a joke...the best forecasters so far this winter are the ones who predicted run of the mill snowless winter, not the rampers. TEITS is 100 % entitled to say his bit...and I actually agree with him but why can't someone challenge him without getting slated? 

 

 

It's quite simple, provocative posts get provocative responses from some, when I see a post that annoys me I just ignore it. 

I have no problem with anyone taking on my posts, we're all trying to work it out and any challenge to my views helps me learn. 

But back to the models. Yes, as Bluearmy says, a lot of snowy ensembles next Tuesday.

And don't write off the days after! There's still quite a number of ECM ensembles more like the FV3 at T192 - bit of a mess of options really but plenty of useful easterlies or north-easterlies in there. 

Next week still looks like a high Shannon Entropy week to me. 

 

[Sperrin]

41 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Noone fancy posting the day 4 mean...

oh go on then---

 

Would be good for a large portion of the south-

Also noted @Sperrin was the very convective flow for Ireland next week-

We got absolutely buried late last January from a similar setup. Had around a foot lying here at 180m asl. Cheers for the heads up Steve.

[snowbob]

 

It’s like kicking out time in here on a free bar lol

anyway 

18z may calm peeps down

it is the pub run after all

Edited January 25, 2019 by snowbob

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

 A summary of tonight's model output discussion-

You giff theif..lol

[Guest]

Three model views on next Thursdays low pressure and the ensembles from GFS.

Certainly a large area of low pressure but still a good chance it will be much slacker than depicted by ECM, notice the ensembles have three to four good cold members in there? Could we be lucky this time? Sure the ECM is usually first for picking up new trends but is it blowing this low up too much? 

[SLEETY]

Seems people seem to think SSW guarantees cold weather. It doesn't it just increases the probability of colder weather, there have been like 25 SSW events past 50  years and how many of those ended up with a cold spell, not many. 

Poor mods tonight  some people will probably find they can't post here anymore. Don't say you weren't warned. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

ICON 18z bringing a snow event as a front moves eastwards at T90, this bringing the goodies to Midlands southwards. Another small slider event at T114, south of the M4 only.

Edited January 25, 2019 by Ben Sainsbury

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

ICON 18z bringing a snow event as a front moves eastwards at T90, this bringing the goodies to Midlands southwards.

Aye, this one?

[SMU]

The UKs prospects for snow next week generally rely on the delicate balance of the attenuated jet staying largly SW of the UK allowing for the Polar air to become established, then tiny systems in the flow temporarily interupt that flow bring more in the way of PPN

It could be a classic week here for some...

ICON ends on another snow event crossing the UK

[Mike Poole]

So to the ICON, and first up T63, a purple Scrappy Doo:

Second one this year by my reckoning.  Need to check with NOAA whether this is the first winter with two Scrappy Doo vortices...get back to you on that!  I can't find out how this might affect the NAO index, might need to downwell a bit I would suggest!

[Ben Sainsbury]

4 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

ICON 18z bringing a snow event as a front moves eastwards at T90, this bringing the goodies to Midlands southwards. Another small slider event at T114, south of the M4 only.

T90: 

T114:

[damianslaw]

23 hours ago, damianslaw said:

 

Lots of room for marked margins of error at present, expect lots of flip flopping within the crucial reliable timeframe period of. 120hr-144 hr timeframe and anything thereafter with a pinch of salt. Sudden short term developments are very likely making a mockery of longer range model output.

The theme of the last 12 months has been for shallow low pressure systems - not the bowling low being shown by the model outputs this evening for Thursday which is at the far end of the reliable timeframe right now. Don't be surprised to see a shallow feature.

I've been looking at the charts from 1978 for late Jan and Feb - quite a bit of similiarity - we saw a deep low pressure anchor down through the UK on the 28th Jan which brought a major snowfall in Scotland. After a hesistant start February then opened the door to very cold conditions courtesy of scandi highs, and we then saw an infamous slider snowstorm in the SW around 18-20th. Not saying this will play out this year, but not without question - wrap around heights building in from the east edging towards Iceland with low pressure forced to slide its way through the UK. Could be about to see a notably very different February synoptic wise than we have seen for quite some time!

Another year to look at is 2006, we had a SSW late Jan, the cold never truly established itself until a month or so later, with northerlies, followed by a long drawn easterly mid March.. 2013 also a year to think about as well..

A word on ECM output 240 hr timeframe - rare I say this - but bin it!

Edited January 25, 2019 by damianslaw

[northwestsnow]

ICON is a huge upgrade 850s wise at 120-

18Z

12Z

[snowbob]

34 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The UKs prospects for snow next week generally rely on the delicate balance of the attenuated jet staying largly SW of the UK allowing for the Polar air to become established, then tiny systems in the flow temporarily interupt that flow bring more in the way of PPN

It could be a classic week here for some...

ICON ends on another snow event crossing the UK

Do the impacts of this low further south or north affect the general theme going forward @Steve Murr

for example if the south have an all rain event would that be better long term and visa  versa

Or is it just to volatile to apprehend 

Edited January 25, 2019 by snowbob

[Mike Poole]

JMA banging the drum so hard it risks perforating it, here T192

Consistency from this model at least!

The volatility at the moment suggests nothing beyond day 6 is on or off the table.  Keep the faith folks for at least another week or 10 days 

Edited January 25, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Methuselah]

I guess the biggest problem, post-Wednesday, won't be so much about what the models are saying, as about whether the real weather spoils everything by spinning-up a nasty Atlantic LP system...? Models-runs will not melt snow, but 10C and lashing rain certainly will!

Meanwhile, something about today's GFS 12Z looks totally FUBAR to me!