Cold hunt - models and chat

[Disco_Stu]

Those 'background signals' 

[Don]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Nope, moving in the opposite direction..

Given how this winter has gone so far, you wouldn't bet against February going t*ts up as well!

[Steve C]

Looking at the updated models, I'm wondering whether this will end up being the Winter of great disappointment?

I still think we are likely to have a proper  cold shot, maybe mid Feb? However I was very confident (70% chance) that the same would start from about this weekend, towards the end of last week. 

Oh well, worse things happen at sea! At least we haven't had destructive winds and property flooding etc. I still think we'll have a decent cold shot, if not anything like 1947!

Edited January 25, 2019 by Steve C

[snowray]

9 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Please don't laugh as I mention Navgem...!

Just as a demonstration, but if you run the sequence through, it actually evolves as I would have expected in the current setup.

Just a shame it's the Navgem.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=4&archive=0

At least the NAVGEM supports the Para...Verses..... the rest.

No JMA 12z though this evening for some reason, good omen or bad one I wonder?

[igloo]

1 minute ago, Disco_Stu said:

Those 'background signals' 

yes we all fell for the ecm 46 never again it belongs in the bin

[Jackski4]

As long as para stays consistent there's still a chance. And ECM took a step forward from the 00z. We're actually heading the right way considering where we were this morning. They were never going to correct themselves in one run... Baby steps! 

[January Snowstorm]

10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ECM gives W.Ireland a huge amount of snow, as BA said, well over a foot in places. 4-8 inches north of Sheffield, so definitely an improvement from the 00z ECM I'd say.

Wednesday/Thursday big low broadly followed what I said earlier, south of M4 nothing, M4 to Leeds (roughly) transitionary snow-rain (though far more rain than snow for most), north of Leeds, heavy snow.

That is not to say about what may happen before/after that low.

How do you see so much snow for Western Ireland Kold? It just looks like wintry showers to me no?

[snow freak]

6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

If anyone says the be patient word on here again I’m gonna . I think everyone has been patient enough this last 8ish weeks . The ECM gets worse as it goes on .

No we can’t say day 8,9 and 10 will be like that but you’d rather be seeing decent charts at that range . All heading the wrong way for us cold snowy lovers .

even patience has its limit and this winter has lost mine.  Anyone who says we need patience one more time....... lets face it this winter has been dreadful in every respect....even for this poxy little island of ours.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, igloo said:

yes we all fell for the ecm 46 never again it belongs in the bin

TBH  im no fan of seasonal models, i was taken in by the consistency of EC 46 but lets call a spade a spade, at this juncture its looking more and more like a bust..

I suspect Exeter will be making changes tomorrow, i was pleasently suprised by todays but come tomorrow...

We could of course see a flip tomorrow but i wont be holding my breath..

Hopefully a few snow events for some next week.

 

[Frosty.]

In amongst all the latest 12z obituaries there are still some good signs, the GEFS 12z mean for example indicates a prolonged predominantly cold outlook and indeed very cold for most of next week so it's still all to play for despite a few wobbles today!

[Tim Bland]

Lets not forget hat GFSp is still positive for Long term cold and ECM has some snow for all Tuesday. Meto wouldn’t have put out the below  if they were not confirdent 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

At least the NAVGEM supports the Para...Verses..... the rest.

No JMA 12z though this evening for some reason, good omen or bad one I wonder?

JMA had to be censored after improving on its runs of the previous few days and showing a long draw NE'ly, considering the mayhem that could cause in here!  

This is getting a very hard chase now, to be honest, which I guess it will make it all the more worth while when it hits.  I still think it will -70%- now.  But we really need to see strong signals in the next 10days or so on the models.  

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

How do you see so much snow for Western Ireland Kold? It just looks like wintry showers to me no?

On the eCM it looks like the air on the western side of the low is just cold enough in heavy precipitation to keep it as snow the whole way through. Its literally the bullseye zone, high risk because if the LP is even slightly off, you end up in rain, but it comes off. The peak snowfall is about 15 inches in Sw Ireland.

I'm still about 85% confident about how this will evolve between 120-168hrs, but GFSP is stopping me from going upto 95%,

Edited January 25, 2019 by kold weather

[Chesil View]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH  im no fan of seasonal models, i was taken in by the consistency of EC 46 but lets call a spade a spade, at this juncture its looking more and more like a bust..

I suspect Exeter will be making changes tomorrow, i was pleasently suprised by todays but come tomorrow...

We could of course see a flip tomorrow but i wont be holding my breath..

Hopefully a few snow events for some next week.

 

Sorry NWS but there is no reason whatsoever for Exeter to make any changes to their outlook. 

[booferking]

5 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

How do you see so much snow for Western Ireland Kold? It just looks like wintry showers to me no?

 

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

 

Boofers had the purple crayons out there. 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, booferking said:

 

Its better than nothing but for me personally i woulnt be really bothered, it will be washed away a few hours on..which in some ways makes it worse.

Thats not being horrible, each to their own but for me nah..

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH  im no fan of seasonal models, i was taken in by the consistency of EC 46 but lets call a spade a spade, at this juncture its looking more and more like a bust..

I suspect Exeter will be making changes tomorrow, i was pleasently suprised by todays but come tomorrow...

We could of course see a flip tomorrow but i wont be holding my breath..

Hopefully a few snow events for some next week.

 

Yes things aren't coming together are they.up side is we have saved on heating bills and the days are lengthening!!!

[jules216]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Something isn’t right 

Let's have a look at it this way,ECM,GFS and GEM ops 12Z I hate to be the one moaning as I ve  seen plenty of snow this year but I have also seen some very poor model seasonal performances.Certainly I dont have time to go back and quote them all, come end of winter it will be interesting what will we come up with as being the spoiler to -NAO and HLB fail. Now it seems to be misstimed tropical forcing vs strat downwelling,advocated changes are being put further back I have become a believer this year to take more note in future of the stochastic nature of atmosphere and  don't apply bias preferred view of teleconnections

 

[cheshire snow]

Its all okay the boom charts start tomorrow USA Government announces end to shut down

C.S

[SLEETY]

23 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

If anyone says the be patient word on here again I’m gonna . I think everyone has been patient enough this last 8ish weeks . The ECM gets worse as it goes on .

No we can’t say day 8,9 and 10 will be like that but you’d rather be seeing decent charts at that range . All heading the wrong way for us cold snowy lovers .

But we have seen decent charts at days 8 9 and 10, and they never verify either the failed easterly for example. Of course because ecm is showing mild at the end, then it most probably will verify.

[Scandinavian High.]

Day 4 isn’t even sorted yet let alone day 10 models seem to be all over the place..

[Banbury]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH  im no fan of seasonal models, i was taken in by the consistency of EC 46 but lets call a spade a spade, at this juncture its looking more and more like a bust..

I suspect Exeter will be making changes tomorrow, i was pleasently suprised by todays but come tomorrow...

We could of course see a flip tomorrow but i wont be holding my breath..

Hopefully a few snow events for some next week.

 

Exeter have just put an upgrade out today , I can't see them changing it just because of one ECM run...…………..remember just how much data they see 

Edited January 25, 2019 by Banbury

[ICE COLD]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its better than nothing but for me personally i woulnt be really bothered, it will be washed away a few hours on..which in some ways makes it worse.

Thats not being horrible, each to their own but for me nah..

That’s exactly why I’m not excited .Thats like  Santa giving you your Xmas presents and then taking them away 3 hours later . No thanks .  

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

All is good, the metO itv forecast says 6c gor me on Tues....same as they said for Thurs when ot was 1c.........

 

BFTP