Cold hunt - models and chat

[kold weather]

Tuesday on the ECM looks a splitting image of....last Tuesday! Even down to the timings (it better not come at the same time, that screwed me over last time!!!) System slows down over East Anglia and Kent somewhat.

Broadly 1-3cms would be fair, though I'm sure somewhere would luck out on more if that happened verbatim.

Edited January 25, 2019 by kold weather

[SLEETY]

Hmm back to westerlies at the end of ecm the, probably another warm run at the end, 

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I've suspected for a while that you get to see these ECM charts before we do, @bluearmy !  I'd say it is what the day 9 chart shows!

Nope mike - meteociel is quickest on the ec op .... just looked like it would go positively tilted and sadly it really does! 

[Methuselah]

The FV3 ends with remarkable Met O agreement...Once one's factored-out the 180 degree total wind vector-reversal, of course!

[fromey]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Day number and 6 for the 06z run 

thanks for that, makes sense now 

[Frosty.]

But the Ecm 12z is a.........

Edited January 25, 2019 by Frosty.

[Drifter]

Please don't laugh as I mention Navgem...!

Just as a demonstration, but if you run the sequence through, it actually evolves as I would have expected in the current setup.

Just a shame it's the Navgem.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=4&archive=0

Edited January 25, 2019 by Drifter

[IDO]

The D10 ECM FWIW (not a lot!) makes you think that these "background signals" are not quite in the picture yet:

Again, far away from my thoughts for Feb 3!

[Man With Beard]

6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Tuesday on the ECM looks a splitting image of....last Tuesday! Even down to the timings (it better not come at the same time, that screwed me over last time!!!) System slows down over East Anglia and Kent somewhat.

Broadly 1-3cms would be fair, though I'm sure somewhere would luck out on more if that happened verbatim.

Better south of the M4 though

Loving your posts kold weather btw! 

Edited January 25, 2019 by Man With Beard

[on the coast]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

But the Ecm 12z is a.........

Bit different to the METO outlook  

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Nope mike - meteociel is quickest on the ec op .... just looked like it would go positively tilted and sadly it really does! 

Fair enough!  But it does mean after another days model watching we aren't really a great deal further forward.  Still uncertainty over the Tuesday snow potential, and after that well we will have to wait and see!  

To be honest Id have liked to see more in the 12z output that obviously supported the Met Office updates, and we haven't....yet.

 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

But the Ecm 12z is a.........

...painful, smelly, weeping pustule?

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

But the Ecm 12z is a.........

Better not come off like that! 

[ICE COLD]

If anyone says the be patient word on here again I’m gonna . I think everyone has been patient enough this last 8ish weeks . The ECM gets worse as it goes on .

No we can’t say day 8,9 and 10 will be like that but you’d rather be seeing decent charts at that range . All heading the wrong way for us cold snowy lovers .

[kumquat]

2 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Please don't laugh as I mention Navgem...!

Just as a demonstration, but if you run the sequence through, it actually evolves as I would have expected in the current setup.

Just a shame it's the Navgem.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=4&archive=0

Saw that earlier and didn't have the balls to post!  

[swfc]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The FV3 ends with remarkable Met O agreement...Once one's factored-out the 180 degree total wind vector-reversal, of course!

It's a shocker isn't it!!! Guess it's fi but even Tony Blair couldn't put a good spin on that ec

Edited January 25, 2019 by swfc

[Guest Delete Me]

God I need a drink, that ECM output makes me wanna puke.

[northwestsnow]

EC det better in the shorter term.. large parts of the country get a good dolloping before the milder air takes over... tues might be fruitful for the NW .. nice couple of cm which will likely stick around for a few days..

In this wretched winter thats a lottery win..

[kold weather]

ECM gives W.Ireland a huge amount of snow, as BA said, well over a foot in places. 4-8 inches north of Sheffield, so definitely an improvement from the 00z ECM I'd say.

Wednesday/Thursday big low broadly followed what I said earlier, south of M4 nothing, M4 to Leeds (roughly) transitionary snow-rain (though far more rain than snow for most), north of Leeds, heavy snow.

That is not to say about what may happen before/after that low.

Edited January 25, 2019 by kold weather

[Guest Delete Me]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

EC det better in the shorter term.. large parts of the country get a good dolloping before the milder air takes over... tues might be fruitful for the NW .. nice couple of cm which will likely stick around for a few days..

In this wretched winter thats a lottery win..

Only 3 numbers and £10 though

[Don]

Not much sign of a cold February setting up, looking at the ECM tonight.....

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Don said:

Not much sign of a cold February setting up, looking at the ECM tonight.....

Nope, moving in the opposite direction..

[kumquat]

I'm still upbeat out to 120 hrs

Look at the vortex here:

Seems incredible that we cannot get better sustained greeny height rises beyond this.

 

[nick sussex]

Given some of those hideous winters with no sign of a snowflake at least a few places might see some but overall there’s nothing showing a decent spell with crunchy snow and a few days to enjoy it.

Its like feeding on the scraps out of the bins at the back of a five star restaurant !

The models are throwing out a few scraps to stop this thread from turning very ugly but really for all the background signals there’s still no sign of a decent length wintry spell .

 

[Jackski4]

Are the ecm ensembles out yet?