Cold hunt - models and chat

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GFSp keeps the dream alive for the far south on Tues night 

As I said, this maybe the one to watch, especially as the low this weekend has gradually been getting deeper/further north with time.

I'd say around 80% of the ensembles broadly look like the OP run. Not quite full agreement but getting closer in terms of the general evolution being for the low to become larger and more circular and to move somewhere close to the UK whilst drawing up milder WSW air.

[Froze were the Days]

Get in there!...CFS says yes for deep cold in mid-February lol! - I'll chew my hand off if that happens.

[Man With Beard]

FV3... this is exactly what coldies want to see, and it's a very small adjustment from the other models, really 

[Tim Bland]

GFSp is a beauty for next week. I wish they had pulled the plug on the old GFS as this place would be much cherier this evening! 

[bluearmy]

Gfsp doesn’t develop the low and it is absorbed into the base of the cold trough - no mixing out of low uppers north of the channel ....that’s a low percentage eps cluster option 

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

GFSp is a beauty for next week. I wish they had pulled the plug on the old GFS as this place would be much cherier this evening! 

Isn't gfsp meant to be better than gfs anyway ?

[Deep Snow please]

Hands up as an amateur who watches these out of morbid fascination and mild addiction. Any experts around?

 

Regards Tuesday. Am I right in thinking that we have a potential low pressure affecting Scotland and Northern England and a separate low pressure system with the potential to affect Southern England? Both able to bring snow, is it possible that these two low pressures could merge and if so would that intensify the amount of wind and precipitation associated with them? What is the realistic likelihood of something like that happening?

[Sweatyman]

10 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GFSp keeps the dream alive for the far south on Tues night 

hopeless for me! Good job these charts are hopeless too

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Then the ECM  switches lol..

If that happens then I will be very happy indeed. I highly doubt it will, but you can hope I suppose!

Anyway ensembles are looking pretty snowy now for Tuesday for the southern half of the country.

Ensembles have a little more in the way of transient snow than the 06z suite did as well before the milder air comes in on Tuesday. Not great, but its something.

[Froze were the Days]

Fancy people now cherry picking the GFS/P - as mentioned the old GFS needs to go in the skip, it just gives peeps on here one less model to get excited or cheesed off about

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gfsp doesn’t develop the low and it is absorbed into the base of the cold trough - no mixing out of low uppers north of the channel ....that’s a low percentage eps cluster option 

The GFSP has been stubborn with this idea, almost as stubborn as the ECM has been with its idea.

As long as its holding onto it, I suppose it is still an option, however small the support is from other models.

It'd be a worrying sign to see it wrong, especially as its so out of kilter, but every model has to have a win at some point, this would be a grand place to start!

[Scandinavian High.]

Southern England looks to be in the game possible heavy snowfall Tuesday evening the trend is definitely there I expect more changes to come can’t seem to upload a pic..

[lassie23]

8 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Get in there!...CFS says yes for deep cold in mid-February lol! - I'll chew my hand off if that happens.

and i'll chew your other one off if it does

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Southern England looks to be in the game possible heavy snowfall Tuesday evening the trend is definitely there I expect more changes to come can’t seem to upload a pic..

Some snow chances for EA & SE, Sunday night, too: 

[fromey]

15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Something isn’t right 

Your graph shows jan 2019 but the dates along the bottom look wrong

[Decemberof2010]

Is there a northern model thread?

[kold weather]

Quite a few of the ensembles are really bringing in significant disruptive snowfall into the south on Tuesday evening. A few ensembles nudging it a little further north as well. Really feel this maybe more of a story than the 2nd low at this rate.

Hard to eyeball it, but based on liquid amounts converted to snowfall, several runs show something between 9-12 inches, and the rest are in the 3-6 type range, but as I said that is only a very rough estimate.

Edited January 25, 2019 by kold weather

[Weathizard]

Was just going through the ensembles, not great to be honest was hoping for better, that low looks absolutely nailed on to blow up now unfortunately; potentially prospects for some before that but the chase for cold proper continues, NH profile looking increasingly good, but noticed a few reforming that vortex in Greenland again... 

Onto the ECM! 

[Jackski4]

ECM rolling out very soon! Here's hoping it follows the para

[Lampostwatcher]

the low hasnt even devieloped yet

but winter is over and this week is dead lolol

its no good for the south its going to go into france 

lol its going north

Edited January 25, 2019 by Lampostwatcher

[Mike Poole]

FV3 still going strong for the cold for UK at T192. So that's several days from Tuesday now.

t

And the model has actually been pretty consistent, well more so than the others, yes possibly consistently wrong but we'll see.  ECM next.

Edited January 25, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, Lampostwatcher said:

the low hasnt even developed yet

So? You can't ignore the trends for it.. MetO are keeping a close eye, they run dozens of options. Yes we won't have nailed an exact track til Sunday/Monday.

All about trends at this stage.

[tight isobar]

Some of the stuff is bordering ridiculous again this eve..

We have a miss matched format of an incoming feature that is still in the womb!!.

And model divergence-even if @this param There is meak compare..

A few are going to look quite daft in coming days...that i assure!

The scale and track are in there younger forms..and with given feable-mlb air injection..

For me its just the start of a quite snowy scenario..

And any1 drawing conclusions on snow lines at or around ANY geographical point..have there hand on the chopper..

No-not down there trousers...but the wood shreader!!..

Gonna have a scrutinised look through all data after this eves-ecm 12z..

Where i will note my steadfast points...on nxt weeks events!!....

 

Edited January 25, 2019 by tight isobar

[Stuie]

36 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

NAO isn't that much of importance, if AO goes negative which looks likely.

We can still get very cold if NAO is postive to netural as long as the AO goes negative:)

The AO is destined for negative in the US but not sure about the NAO going negative. Here is the chart from Jan 19th showing that it would then really flipped to positive. If it was to go negative anytime soon then we would need this sort of flip again.

 

Edited January 25, 2019 by Stuie W

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

the low hasnt even developed yet

Nope not yet.

First trace of energy I can find along the frontal boundary is coming off Mexico in to the Gulf on Saturday night, that energy works up the frontal boundary and creates the low pressure cell on Sunday daytime. Until that happens still could have anything happen.

Anyway GFS para has very little snow north of B'ham fwiw other than the odd trough feature coming into Scotland. C.S England ends with about 20cms.

Tight Isobar, its not even in the womb yet, its still just a gleam in the eye!!

Edited January 25, 2019 by kold weather