Cold hunt - models and chat

[MattStoke]

11 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Yeah that's great if the models were all showing completely different ideas but when they show (as is the case) the same theme, then that's the point you call it a day. 

Just like when they were all showing the bitterly cold easterly a week ago.

[Steve C]

9 minutes ago, MKN said:

 Doesn't make one ounce of difference. You will often see they all pick up on a slight change and all of a sudden it's a completely different outlook. These scenarios over the last 15 or so years I have been watching the models are of course closely watched. One minute it's snow for the Midlands then it's the Pennines then moves back south then ends up in everyone moaning as it goes into France for example all within the space of 3/4 days. You can't count on the same reliability as you can in a typical westerly pattern. FI is around 48-72 hours imo. 

Maybe an example of chaos theory / butterfly effect ?

Edited January 25, 2019 by Steve C

[MidnightSnow]

Mental that people trust individual runs over the Met Office. Is it an ego thing?

[JeffC]

17 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Ouch. Surely we can’t be this unlucky, I’m not buying it. Good job I bought shares in that Prozac.  

so people can throw their toys out of their Citalo-pram?

[Jackski4]

4 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

Mental that people trust individual runs over the Met Office. Is it an ego thing?

As far as I'm concerned the met office surely have more data than we have I would put my money on them ..

[kold weather]

9 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

Mental that people trust individual runs over the Met Office. Is it an ego thing?

Without any more data we go on what we have...and what we have is utterly overwhelmingly going only one direction. I think that's clear to see.

However, people will have to keep on learning the hard way I suppose that when you get this sort of agreement, 95% of the time, its going to lock into place, especially with something like this. Looks like the lesson with the easterly hasn't been learnt with some...

EDIT- lets hope the GFSP stay cold, if that jumps off it really is game set and match to the ECM.

Edited January 25, 2019 by kold weather

[joggs]

1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

As far as I'm concerned the met office surely have more data than we have I would put my money on them ..

Their model might be showing different outcome but also we're seeing up-to-date outputs so their later outputs might flip back to this outcome.

You'll see on their update in the early hours.

[Methuselah]

Day 13 screaming POTENTIAL! 

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Day 13 screaming POTENTIAL! 

In the words of Bradley Walsh, the chase is on!!

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

As far as I'm concerned the met office surely have more data than we have I would put my money on them ..

Problem is there updates never seem to get any closer tbh.bit like Bradley Walsh with push backs !! hopefully it will fall into place but don't expect there to be much change over the next 7-10 days imo

[Jackski4]

Just now, swfc said:

Problem is there updates never seem to get any closer tbh.bit like Bradley Walsh with push backs !! hopefully it will fall into place but don't expect there to be much change over the next 7-10 days imo

NO way did we just make Bradley Walsh comments at the same time..!

 

Here's to hoping it does fall into place 

[Mucka]

As far as GFS ensembles go out to 120 there is absolutely no consensus on how shortwave lows form/track/develop within the upper trough just N of the UK.

That means as far as detail rain/sleet/snow or dry pretty much anything can happen through next week still.

Edited January 25, 2019 by Mucka

[jules216]

No sign of -NAO, or at least it is being put further and further back, now to second week of February  at least.

Another winter and another lesson learned not to trust 240+ negative NAO modeling, as per ECMWF 46 day model fail.

Maybe by last week of February it will flip   some big hitters on the other forums were saying on Monday that NAO will go down by1st February, so atmosphere has decided to go other way again  Not saying GFS will verify post 240h but we were here before many times. 

 

 

[Updated_Weather]

20 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

I was thinking something a little stronger than Stella! I personally think the models are all gonna switch come morning to a cold outlook again. Maybe they're just tired today, it is Friday after all... Plenty of time for them to switch back. The low hasn't even formed yet!!

Fine, i'll pour some vodka in her.. Makes her less shy at showing extreme options that we want;)

Yep once the low has formed we will have a better idea, this is just plain guess work at the moment until sunday/monday

[Ben Sainsbury]

FV3 shows a very snowy Southern England, Tuesday night into Wednesday. Uppers well on our side of marginal.

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, jules216 said:

No sign of -NAO, or at least it is being put further and further back, now to second week of February  at least.

Another winter and another lesson learned not to trust 240+ negative NAO modeling, as per ECMWF 46 day model fail.

Maybe by last week of February it will flip   some big hitters on the other forums were saying on Monday that NAO will go down by1st February, so atmosphere has decided to go other way again  Not saying GFS will verify post 240h but we were here before many times. 

 

 

NAO isn't that much of importance, if AO goes negative which looks likely.

We can still get very cold if NAO is postive to netural as long as the AO goes negative:)

[kold weather]

Ensembles as Mucka say don't have any real agreement, though far more are still going for the 'fat' LP like the OP has.

They ARE however making more and more of that LP that swings across France. It may be worth watching that one because the stronger it gets the more the tendency it will have to rotate tighter to the core of the upper low  to our north- which means in translation closer to the south of England.

That in fact maybe the low to watch if you want snow, not the 2nd one.

Ben- yes ensembles are starting to sniff out something for S.england as well on Tuesday.

Edited January 25, 2019 by kold weather

[Tim Bland]

GFSp keeps the dream alive for the far south on Tues night 

[Jackski4]

2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Fine, i'll pour some vodka in her.. Makes her less shy at showing extreme options that we want;)

Yep once the low has formed we will have a better idea, this is just plain guess work at the moment until sunday/monday

I'm trying not to be overly positive or negative on any run lately as it seems to change every 6 hours! Let's just hope when it gets into the reliable it has changed for the better.. 

[Kentspur]

Just now, jules216 said:

No sign of -NAO, or at least it is being put further and further back, now to second week of February  at least.

Another winter and another lesson learned not to trust 240+ negative NAO modeling, as per ECMWF 46 day model fail.

Maybe by last week of February it will flip   some big hitters on the other forums were saying on Monday that NAO will go down by1st February, so atmosphere has decided to go other way again  Not saying GFS will verify post 240h but we were here before many times. 

 

 

Personally I feel that the ever strengthening W-QBO has largely been ignored in regards to affecting other factors used to call out a colder than normal January/early Feb. Still time for things to change for the better the NAO going negative being one  factor, I've always been of the opinion that a Negative NAO is more important than a Negative AO also. This winter so far seems to have backed up my theory on this

[Tim Bland]

29 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Early hours of Tuesday has snow across parts of England and Wales - what's made you come to your conclusion?

Yes there’s a few snow showers on GFS mon / tues but the front on Tues night slides to the south. GFSp / UKMO and current ECM have it across southern counties. 

Edited January 25, 2019 by Tim Bland

[ALL ABOARD]

GFSP has the snow event still for southern England maybe glancing blow for South Wales on Tuesday. 

Before another band of snow for Wales and Southern England again on Thursday as the cold never really goes anywhere. 

Edited January 25, 2019 by ALL ABOARD

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, jules216 said:

No sign of -NAO, or at least it is being put further and further back, now to second week of February  at least.

Another winter and another lesson learned not to trust 240+ negative NAO modeling, as per ECMWF 46 day model fail.

Maybe by last week of February it will flip   some big hitters on the other forums were saying on Monday that NAO will go down by1st February, so atmosphere has decided to go other way again  Not saying GFS will verify post 240h but we were here before many times. 

 

 

Something isn’t right 

[Sweatyman]

17 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Without any more data we go on what we have...and what we have is utterly overwhelmingly going only one direction. I think that's clear to see.

However, people will have to keep on learning the hard way I suppose that when you get this sort of agreement, 95% of the time, its going to lock into place, especially with something like this. Looks like the lesson with the easterly hasn't been learnt with some...

EDIT- lets hope the GFSP stay cold, if that jumps off it really is game set and match to the ECM.

Then the ECM  switches lol..

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, Sweatyman said:

Then the ECM  switches lol..

We want ECM to go along with GEFS - Think that'll make people happy